The Student Room Group

OH DEAR FOLKS, David Cameron and Georgie boy are FINISHED!!! LOL

This man and his side kick Lord Georgie boy are toast, what more evidence do you need then his disgusting attempt to label all under 25 year old's as scroungers than his pathetic speech he delivered today. This man now wants to punish the under 25 year old's even more with his proposal to cut all welfare for the under 25's.

Well I for one can not wait to vote this man and he's three side kicks out i.e Georgie boy and Iain Duncan Smith. I just can not wait to go into that polling booth and do what I love doing best and that is voting against the Tories:smile::smile::smile::wink::smile: LOVE IT!!!!.

Also the Conservative vote has collapsed lol. A recent Lord Ashcroft poll even concluded that Alot of people who voted for Davie boy are now deserting the sinking ship and going to vote UKIP OH DEAR THE GAMES UP PAL.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2534337/More-hard-choices-needed-secure-long-term-recovery-says-Osborne-Chancellor-warns-spending-cuts-needed.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/01/03/david-cameron-conservative-reelection_n_4536300.html
Not sure anything that's happened today will really affect anything, but yeah it is extremely unlikely the Conservatives will do well in 2015.
Reply 2
Original post by THECHOOSENONE
This man and his side kick Lord Georgie boy are toast, what more evidence do you need then his disgusting attempt to label all under 25 year old's as scroungers than his pathetic speech he delivered today. This man now wants to punish the under 25 year old's even more with his proposal to cut all welfare for the under 25's.

Well I for one can not wait to vote this man and he's three side kicks out i.e Georgie boy and Iain Duncan Smith. I just can not wait to go into that polling booth and do what I love doing best and that is voting against the Tories:smile::smile::smile::wink::smile: LOVE IT!!!!.

Also the Conservative vote has collapsed lol. A recent Lord Ashcroft poll even concluded that Alot of people who voted for Davie boy are now deserting the sinking ship and going to vote UKIP OH DEAR THE GAMES UP PAL.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2534337/More-hard-choices-needed-secure-long-term-recovery-says-Osborne-Chancellor-warns-spending-cuts-needed.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/01/03/david-cameron-conservative-reelection_n_4536300.html


Enjoy trollin' huh?
Given that the poor and the young are less likely to vote than older people and the better off, targeting welfare could be a vote winner, especially among readers of the Daily Mail and Express. As long as pensions are not included in any cuts.
Reply 4
Original post by THECHOOSENONE


Well I for one can not wait to vote this man and he's three side kicks out i.e Georgie boy and Iain Duncan Smith.



you seem to have trouble counting to three ?

:confused::confused:
So when there is considerable youth unemployment due to a lack of jobs down to a weakened economy, the solution is to cut the housing benefit for all Under-25's. That'll be a real vote winner for all the affected under-25's, and their parents that now have their adult children stuck at home.
Reply 6
Who cares?! It always happens the year before election time, the party in power c*cks up so that they don't have to worry about losing it!
Reply 7
Original post by shawn_o1
Who cares?! It always happens the year before election time, the party in power c*cks up so that they don't have to worry about losing it!


Didn't happen in 1982, 1986 or 1991...

I've always said that it will hard for Labour not to win the next election.
(edited 10 years ago)
Reply 8
Original post by the bear
you seem to have trouble counting to three ?

:confused::confused:


I snorted tea from my nose
Original post by THECHOOSENONE
This man and his side kick Lord Georgie boy are toast, what more evidence do you need then his disgusting attempt to label all under 25 year old's as scroungers than his pathetic speech he delivered today. This man now wants to punish the under 25 year old's even more with his proposal to cut all welfare for the under 25's.

Well I for one can not wait to vote this man and he's three side kicks out i.e Georgie boy and Iain Duncan Smith. I just can not wait to go into that polling booth and do what I love doing best and that is voting against the Tories:smile::smile::smile::wink::smile: LOVE IT!!!!.

Also the Conservative vote has collapsed lol. A recent Lord Ashcroft poll even concluded that Alot of people who voted for Davie boy are now deserting the sinking ship and going to vote UKIP OH DEAR THE GAMES UP PAL.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2534337/More-hard-choices-needed-secure-long-term-recovery-says-Osborne-Chancellor-warns-spending-cuts-needed.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/01/03/david-cameron-conservative-reelection_n_4536300.html

You do realise that Ian, Duncan and Smith aren't three different people don't you? They must be quaking in their boots.:tongue:
Reply 10
Original post by Lialore
I snorted tea from my nose

Your nose produces tea? :eek:
Reply 11
Original post by meenu89
Didn't happen in 1982, 1986 or 1991...

I've always said that it will hard for Labour not to win the next election.


It did in early '81 before the invasion...

Wasn't early '91 quite dicey too?

I'd agree though, it looks somewhat tricky. This term was a bit of a poisoned chalice, the Conservatives didn't even start with a majority, how anyone would have expected them to get one in 2015 after following a deficit reduction strategy is beyond me, hardly it it would ever win them votes outside of their core. Which is why boundary reform was so important. Bit suprised they hindred lords reform, tit for tac with the Lib Dems blocking boundary reform should have been a known risk.

Ed is the tories best hope. You might disapprove but they really need to try and get Boris to pipe down (as he seems to have recently) as the 'Eton Boys' image will undo any good news. Weirdly I think Pickles would really help them if he was wheeled out a bit more meeting 'real people'.
Reply 12
Original post by Quady
It did in early '81 before the invasion...


OP was talking about a year before election. 1981 was two years before an election.
Reply 13
Original post by andrew2209
So when there is considerable youth unemployment due to a lack of jobs down to a weakened economy, the solution is to cut the housing benefit for all Under-25's. That'll be a real vote winner for all the affected under-25's, and their parents that now have their adult children stuck at home.


Under 25s who think they are at risk of being jobless weren't going to vote for them anyway.

Likewise for their parents, who might have a rosier impression of their kids future.

I'm not sure why parents with kids at home would be that bothered that other kids stop getting housing benefit...
Reply 14
Original post by meenu89
OP was talking about a year before election. 1981 was two years before an election.


Yeah sorry typo, Falklands was April '82
I think the Falklands factor was overrated in that 1983 election, people talk like thats the only reason Thatcher won, but she was majorly unpopular in the mid term of the next Parliament and won another landslide in 87.

A more important reason in 1983, and that was still relevant in 1987, was that the SDP-Liberal Alliance were polling around a quarter of the votes, and splitting the anti Thatcher vote, so the way the political system was fragmented worked against the left and centre left. The same would happen if Lib Dems were really powerful today, they would leech votes off Labour. However its going the other way now, the third party is at a weaker point, and so will free up the centre left vote for Labour, whilst another party has appeared on the right, UKIP, which is now competing for the right wing vote with the Conservatives.

In the 1992 election it was all to play for going in to the campaign, which is probably how it will be in 2015, with four results possible. Over the campaign Labour lost momentum and the Conservatives gained momentum. Labour had a leader that was an electoral liability (like now) but the Conservatives had a leader that was quite personally popular (not like now).
Reply 16
Original post by THECHOOSENONE
This man and his side kick Lord Georgie boy are toast, what more evidence do you need then his disgusting attempt to label all under 25 year old's as scroungers than his pathetic speech he delivered today. This man now wants to punish the under 25 year old's even more with his proposal to cut all welfare for the under 25's.

Well I for one can not wait to vote this man and he's three side kicks out i.e Georgie boy and Iain Duncan Smith. I just can not wait to go into that polling booth and do what I love doing best and that is voting against the Tories:smile::smile::smile::wink::smile: LOVE IT!!!!.

Also the Conservative vote has collapsed lol. A recent Lord Ashcroft poll even concluded that Alot of people who voted for Davie boy are now deserting the sinking ship and going to vote UKIP OH DEAR THE GAMES UP PAL.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2534337/More-hard-choices-needed-secure-long-term-recovery-says-Osborne-Chancellor-warns-spending-cuts-needed.html

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/01/03/david-cameron-conservative-reelection_n_4536300.html


I'm going to assume your not a troll and give a reasoned response.

On your first point regarding the abolition of welfare for those under 25 this is an electoral group that has a lower propensity to vote at all and most importantly has a lower propensity to vote Tory. In addition, most AB class voters will likely already cover their childrens expenses and find welfare cuts attractive, the only damage to the Tories here are from the C class voters (working class). Admittedly i don't support the policy myself and think that working class voters are key to winning but it's not quite the electoral suicide you describe overall.

Since the election both the Tory and Liberal votes have reduced but nowhere near collapsed and Labour has not gained that significantly. Polling averages only suggest a 5% lead for Labour but the gap does tend to tighten as we move towards an election.

I'm also not at all sure you have read the Ashcroft report here..

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/01/project-blueprint-phase-4-the-proceeds-of-growth/

Firstly it makes the point that 37% of Tory voters in 2010 (~13%) do not intend to vote Tory in 2015 right now but it does not make several key points which are..

1) 6% of voters who did not vote Tory in 2010 intend to do so in 2015 (4% of these from the Lib Dems, 1.5% from Labour). A further 3% are more likely to vote for another party would would consider voting Tory.

Interestingly this means that the Tory ceiling (if they retained all 2010 voters) would be as high as 45%.

2) Of the 37% about a third (~12%) don't know who they will vote for in 2015.

Statistically those who 'Don't know' are very likely to vote for the party they voted for at the previous election indeed this and the 'shy Tory' vote discovered were major contributors to the shock of 1992.

This means that the Tories will likely retain around 4% of the 13% that say they may note vote for them meaning a maximum loss of 9%.

2) More than half of that 37% say they want a Conservative government after the next election and 75% would prefer Cameron as Prime Minister to Miliband.

This means that's there's a fair chance that half of them will still vote Tory in 2015 anyway and another quarter probably lean to the Tories over Labour.

This means that of the 13% potential loss 6-9% are probably going to vote Tory in 2015 anyway meaning that only 4% are unlikely.

.....................

Overall we have a few scenarios...

Best case scenario - Highly Unlikely - 45%

Optimistic scenario - 38%

Probably scenario - 35%

Worst Case scenario - Highly Unlikely - 29%

...

Given boundaries its worth noting that the first puts them in opposition, the middle two put them in coalition possibly and the top gives them a stonking majority.

...

For the record my own prediction at the moment would be something like..

Lab: 36%
Con: 34%
Lib: 19%
Ukip: 9%

......

My own ICM swing analysis however suggests..

Lab: 33%
Con: 30%
Lib: 17%
Reply 17
Cameron out, he's a disgrace to Britain, in the words of the youth today.

WASTE MAN
Original post by Rakas21
I'm going to assume your not a troll and give a reasoned response.

On your first point regarding the abolition of welfare for those under 25 this is an electoral group that has a lower propensity to vote at all and most importantly has a lower propensity to vote Tory. In addition, most AB class voters will likely already cover their childrens expenses and find welfare cuts attractive, the only damage to the Tories here are from the C class voters (working class). Admittedly i don't support the policy myself and think that working class voters are key to winning but it's not quite the electoral suicide you describe overall.

Since the election both the Tory and Liberal votes have reduced but nowhere near collapsed and Labour has not gained that significantly. Polling averages only suggest a 5% lead for Labour but the gap does tend to tighten as we move towards an election.

I'm also not at all sure you have read the Ashcroft report here..

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/01/project-blueprint-phase-4-the-proceeds-of-growth/

Firstly it makes the point that 37% of Tory voters in 2010 (~13%) do not intend to vote Tory in 2015 right now but it does not make several key points which are..

1) 6% of voters who did not vote Tory in 2010 intend to do so in 2015 (4% of these from the Lib Dems, 1.5% from Labour). A further 3% are more likely to vote for another party would would consider voting Tory.

Interestingly this means that the Tory ceiling (if they retained all 2010 voters) would be as high as 45%.

2) Of the 37% about a third (~12%) don't know who they will vote for in 2015.

Statistically those who 'Don't know' are very likely to vote for the party they voted for at the previous election indeed this and the 'shy Tory' vote discovered were major contributors to the shock of 1992.

This means that the Tories will likely retain around 4% of the 13% that say they may note vote for them meaning a maximum loss of 9%.

2) More than half of that 37% say they want a Conservative government after the next election and 75% would prefer Cameron as Prime Minister to Miliband.

This means that's there's a fair chance that half of them will still vote Tory in 2015 anyway and another quarter probably lean to the Tories over Labour.

This means that of the 13% potential loss 6-9% are probably going to vote Tory in 2015 anyway meaning that only 4% are unlikely.

.....................

Overall we have a few scenarios...

Best case scenario - Highly Unlikely - 45%

Optimistic scenario - 38%

Probably scenario - 35%

Worst Case scenario - Highly Unlikely - 29%

...

Given boundaries its worth noting that the first puts them in opposition, the middle two put them in coalition possibly and the top gives them a stonking majority.

...

For the record my own prediction at the moment would be something like..

Lab: 36%
Con: 34%
Lib: 19%
Ukip: 9%

......

My own ICM swing analysis however suggests..

Lab: 33%
Con: 30%
Lib: 17%


Look you make some good points, but David Cameron is toast simple as can be. If he could not win a majority in 2010 what hope does he in 2015??/ The cuts are just starting to take effect now. So people will be feeling them going into the general election.

Also yes his punishing people he knows will not vote for him. We all know that, but if he thinks people will not come out and vote his in for a shock. People always say young people do not vote lool. Well they said that about Obama in 2012 and he got the same votes for the young he did in 2008. People will come out to vote as they want to punish this muppet and his cronies.

Labour have to stick to the COST OF LIVING topic and ride with that all the way to may 2015. GAME SET AND MATCH LOL
Reply 19
Original post by barnetlad
Given that the poor and the young are less likely to vote than older people and the better off, targeting welfare could be a vote winner, especially among readers of the Daily Mail and Express. As long as pensions are not included in any cuts.

Unlikely, look at the top comments, they're all aimed at foreign aid and politicians/bankers/corporate tax avoiders.

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