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Article: Is it possible to predict what universities will do on results day?

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Original post by SamiZD
My course requires 300 UCAS points, no specific grades if I were to get say...290 or 280 (my insurance is 280 UCAS points) do you think my firm which is 300 UCAS points would let me in?
read the first post

Original post by mck9777
Hiya, my course is asking BBB, i think i should get AAC, any ideas on my chances? :frown:
read the first post

Original post by rp123education
I've heard you can access your results the day before (through UCAS) so you can see if you've got in Uni before you get your results

Is this true?
you can't access your results through UCAS. Read the results day wiki page that has been linked to above.
Original post by SlowlorisIncognito
There's been a lot of threads recently where people are asking for advice about what to expect on results day this year, with regards to clearing, or leniency on grades.

The thing is, it's really very hard to predict.

Student number controls

It's especially hard to predict this year, because for the first time ever, there are no student number controls. This means unis can let in as many students as they want without facing fines! This doesn't mean that most unis won't have a rough idea of how many students they can take, based on practical considerations such as teaching space, staff numbers and budgetary constraints.

Basically, in previous years, if a uni was aiming for 100 students on a course, and went up to 105, this would have been very financially problematic for them. This year, they can accept 105 students without problems. They still probably won't want to accept 150 students or 200 students!

This will have the most impact on students aiming for AAB/ABB and dropping to BBB/BBC- in previous years, you might have missed out on a place due to number controls, but now the constraints on unis won't be as tight. Above this level, number controls haven't existed for a couple of years. If you drop lots of grades, e.g. ABB to CCC, you probably still won't be accepted, as the admissions staff will worry about your ability to cope with the course, and unis don't want high drop out rates/ failure rates for lots of reasons.

How can I tell if a particular course will be in clearing?

The reality is, you can't. Until unis have results in, they won't know themselves about a lot of courses. Some courses which are undersubscribed are available in clearing from July, but even then, you can't be 100% sure that spaces for these courses will still be available on results day.

If you want to know about a particular course/type of course, the best thing to do is to look in back issues of the Telegraph on results day (available at your local library). It's best to look back at least 3 years to see which courses are regularly in clearing. If a course is only available one year, then it's probably a fluke.

Some courses, such as medicine and nursing, are almost never available via clearing and some unis e.g. Oxford, Cambridge, LSE, haven't chosen to offer places via clearing yet.

Will unis be lenient with grades or accept people with lower grades through clearing?

Every year, some people do get in when they've missed a grade or two, and some courses get offered in clearing asking for lower grades than their usual entry requirements. However, this isn't true of every course at every university.

Unis do this when they're struggling to fill a course with students with the previously advertised grade requirements. Basically, it happens when lots of students miss their offers.

Your chances of being let in having missed a grade are higher when:

You've only missed one a grade e.g. you were asked for ABB and got ABC.

The grade you missed isn't in a subject directly relevant to the course, e.g. the C was in French, and you want to study history.

It's not a GCSE grade. Grades for GCSE English and maths are usually pretty hard requirements, if you miss the B or C grade the uni is asking for, you probably won't get a place even if you achieve/ exceed the A-level grades you need.

Everyone else has done badly as well!

It's not worth emailing or ringing unis to ask about this at this stage- the admissions departments won't be able to give you an answer until they know everyone's results.

At this stage, it's probably not worth worrying about this too much. It's better to focus on things you can control- like the rest of your exams, or researching places you might be interested in if you do end up in clearing.


According to this Guardian article, the full effect of uncapping student numbers will not commence until 2015-16. However an increase in 30,000 students will be implemented in 2014-15.
Does this mean that students (such as myself) entering university in 2015 will not be eligible for this 'total' uncapping in uni places?

Thanks in Advance.

http://www.theguardian.com/higher-education-network/blog/2014/sep/18/removing-cap-student-numbers-six-questions-hepi-report
Original post by HItchslapped
According to this Guardian article, the full effect of uncapping student numbers will not commence until 2015-16. However an increase in 30,000 students will be implemented in 2014-15.
Does this mean that students (such as myself) entering university in 2015 will not be eligible for this 'total' uncapping in uni places?

Thanks in Advance.

http://www.theguardian.com/higher-education-network/blog/2014/sep/18/removing-cap-student-numbers-six-questions-hepi-report


2015/16 is the academic year starting in August 2015.

The cap is off for this years entry.
Original post by PQ
2015/16 is the academic year starting in August 2015.

The cap is off for this years entry.


Thanks for the steadfast response!
Original post by SamiZD
My course requires 300 UCAS points, no specific grades if I were to get say...290 or 280 (my insurance is 280 UCAS points) do you think my firm which is 300 UCAS points would let me in?

Please read the opening message to this thread.
Until the A level results of all applicants are known in August, no-one can predict what - if any - near misses ANY University will take.
However hard it may be, you will just have to wait until August just like everyone else.
Just to be sure, considering it wasn't in PQ's sig flowchart -

If I don't get my firm and I do get my insurance but I don't wanna go to it/wanna see if i can get a better uni, do I just decline and go to Clearing or is there Adjustment just for insurance?
Original post by localblackguy
Just to be sure, considering it wasn't in PQ's sig flowchart -

If I don't get my firm and I do get my insurance but I don't wanna go to it/wanna see if i can get a better uni, do I just decline and go to Clearing or is there Adjustment just for insurance?


Adjustment is only for those who meet and exceed their firm offer, so no, there is no adjustment for insurance as you have failed in both those respects if you have to go to your insurance. Yes, you can pull out of your insurance offer and enter clearing, but it is up to you to arrange this with the university and they aren't always all that quick about it.
hi,
so basically, i got offered a place to study french and italian, the offer's BBB. But, that was only if I firmed the uni - they offered ABB to students who put it as an insurance. Do you think, if I got, for instance BBC (touch wood I don't, obviously), that they'd let me in over somebody who got BBB, but put the place as their insurance?
given that i'm committed to the uni and stuff, I was just wondering if they'd take that stuff into account

thanks very much lovely people of tsr
Original post by localblackguy
Just to be sure, considering it wasn't in PQ's sig flowchart -

If I don't get my firm and I do get my insurance but I don't wanna go to it/wanna see if i can get a better uni, do I just decline and go to Clearing or is there Adjustment just for insurance?

As CLR say adjustment isn't an option and clearing will be tricky to arrange.

If you don't want to go to your insurance then ring them now and explain that. It is better to go into results day with no insurance than committed to a place you don't want.
Original post by steakfan
hi,
so basically, i got offered a place to study french and italian, the offer's BBB. But, that was only if I firmed the uni - they offered ABB to students who put it as an insurance. Do you think, if I got, for instance BBC (touch wood I don't, obviously), that they'd let me in over somebody who got BBB, but put the place as their insurance?
given that i'm committed to the uni and stuff, I was just wondering if they'd take that stuff into account

thanks very much lovely people of tsr

Read the first post on this thread. Noone can answer this question.
fair enough, I was asking for your opinion more than anything else, but yeah, it's very much up to the uni.
thanks anyways
Original post by steakfan
fair enough, I was asking for your opinion more than anything else, but yeah, it's very much up to the uni.
thanks anyways


I heard its easier for unis to just accept someone already with an offer, even if they don't meet it, than to accept someone through clearing. Don't know if its true though but yh
Fair enough. It's just one of those things really.
Thanks for that, I'll keep it at the back of my mind
A friend of mine got rejected for all of his medicine applications but got chemical engineering at Sheffield through UCAS Extra. His grades were good, 6 A* GCSE and high performance at IB. 670 UKCAT.
Original post by Flint_sky7
I heard its easier for unis to just accept someone already with an offer, even if they don't meet it, than to accept someone through clearing. Don't know if its true though but yh


It's not so much about it being easier, it's that they often prefer students who have shown some commitment to the uni prior to results day. Clearing students have far higher drop out rates than other students, which is detrimental to both the student and the university, which can mean that students who've narrowly missed their offer can be a safer bet.

Posted from TSR Mobile
Original post by PQ
read the first post

read the first post

you can't access your results through UCAS. Read the results day wiki page that has been linked to above.



Hi again,

Just to let you know I read the post before posting this question, I am asking this as my brother found before he went to get his results that he had a place in the University and no it wasn't unconditional.

Has anyone else had a similar experience?
Original post by rp123education
Hi again,

Just to let you know I read the post before posting this question, I am asking this as my brother found before he went to get his results that he had a place in the University and no it wasn't unconditional.

Has anyone else had a similar experience?

I didn't direct you towards the first post but towards the TSR articles on results day. http://www.thestudentroom.co.uk/content.php?r=15447-ucas-track-on-results-day

You can't access your results through UCAS or universities - you can only get them from your exam centre or the exam board.

Track will only show decisions that have been sent to it - so around 15% of all applicants have no answer about whether they have got in or not when Track goes live each year on results morning. They have to get their results and follow the process below:

results day flowchart

Is the cap going to be removed for 2016 entry too? I want to apply for Queen Mary Economics and if I get an offer, I plan to firm them from the very start. They have requirements of AAA but I think I may get a B in physics at a2 but more confident in Maths and Chemistry to get A's. Obviously I will revise hard this year for A2's but still a bit weary of that B in physics.

I have heard that Queen Mary enter clearing a lot for economics so if I have firmed them, wouldnt they lower my offer too if i missed a grade? They specify they want Maths A level but no specific grade, just AAA
Original post by SheLikeTheMango
Is the cap going to be removed for 2016 entry too?

Yes

The cap will be off until the student loans bill gets out of hand and the treasury panic
I have heard that Queen Mary enter clearing a lot for economics so if I have firmed them, wouldnt they lower my offer too if i missed a grade? They specify they want Maths A level but no specific grade, just AAA

Initial offer grades/standard offers don't change significantly - a university might accept lower from firm applicants in August - but that doesn't mean they'll make low offers in February.
Original post by PQ
Yes

The cap will be off until the student loans bill gets out of hand and the treasury panic

Initial offer grades/standard offers don't change significantly - a university might accept lower from firm applicants in August - but that doesn't mean they'll make low offers in February.


Yeah sorry, that's what I was trying to say. If I missed a grade on results day, would they lower a grade from my original offer if the course was in clearing? I will try my hardest to revise next year but there is always that possibility of missing a grade. Ever heard of Queen Mary letting a student drop two subjects by one grade? so ABB for AAA?
Original post by SheLikeTheMango
Yeah sorry, that's what I was trying to say. If I missed a grade on results day, would they lower a grade from my original offer if the course was in clearing? I will try my hardest to revise next year but there is always that possibility of missing a grade. Ever heard of Queen Mary letting a student drop two subjects by one grade? so ABB for AAA?


See post 2 on this thread.

Universities will generally prefer to accept lower grades from firm students than attract students with those lower grades through clearing.

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