There's been a lot of threads recently where people are asking for advice about what to expect on results day this year, with regards to clearing, or leniency on grades.
The thing is, it's really very hard to predict.
Student number controlsIt's especially hard to predict this year, because for the first time ever, there are no student number controls. This means unis can let in as many students as they want without facing fines! This doesn't mean that most unis won't have a rough idea of how many students they can take, based on practical considerations such as teaching space, staff numbers and budgetary constraints.
Basically, in previous years, if a uni was aiming for 100 students on a course, and went up to 105, this would have been very financially problematic for them. This year, they can accept 105 students without problems. They still probably won't want to accept 150 students or 200 students!
This will have the most impact on students aiming for AAB/ABB and dropping to BBB/BBC- in previous years, you might have missed out on a place due to number controls, but now the constraints on unis won't be as tight. Above this level, number controls haven't existed for a couple of years. If you drop lots of grades, e.g. ABB to CCC, you probably still won't be accepted, as the admissions staff will worry about your ability to cope with the course, and unis don't want high drop out rates/ failure rates for lots of reasons.
How can I tell if a particular course will be in clearing?The reality is, you can't. Until unis have results in, they won't know themselves about a lot of courses. Some courses which are undersubscribed are available in clearing from July, but even then, you can't be 100% sure that spaces for these courses will still be available on results day.
If you want to know about a particular course/type of course, the best thing to do is to look in back issues of the Telegraph on results day (available at your local library). It's best to look back at least 3 years to see which courses are regularly in clearing. If a course is only available one year, then it's probably a fluke.
Some courses, such as medicine and nursing, are almost never available via clearing and some unis e.g. Oxford, Cambridge, LSE, haven't chosen to offer places via clearing
yet. Will unis be lenient with grades or accept people with lower grades through clearing?Every year, some people do get in when they've missed a grade or two, and some courses get offered in clearing asking for lower grades than their usual entry requirements. However, this isn't true of every course at every university.
Unis do this when they're struggling to fill a course with students with the previously advertised grade requirements. Basically, it happens when lots of students miss their offers.
Your chances of being let in having missed a grade are higher when:
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You've only missed one a grade e.g. you were asked for ABB and got ABC.
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The grade you missed isn't in a subject directly relevant to the course, e.g. the C was in French, and you want to study history.
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It's not a GCSE grade. Grades for GCSE English and maths are usually pretty hard requirements, if you miss the B or C grade the uni is asking for, you probably won't get a place even if you achieve/ exceed the A-level grades you need.
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Everyone else has done badly as well!
It's not worth emailing or ringing unis to ask about this at this stage- the admissions departments won't be able to give you an answer until they know everyone's results.
At this stage, it's probably not worth worrying about this too much. It's better to focus on things you can control- like the rest of your exams, or researching places you might be interested in if you do end up in clearing.