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Cash out for £72k or see it through for £250k?

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Original post by leinad2012
Thats not true.
Taking odds of 5000/1 a £50 back stake and odds of 1.55 to lay on the exchange with 5% commission:

You should lau with a liability of £91,685 (your bet), a lay stake of £166,700.17

If your back wins, you would win 50*5000 - 91,685= 158,314.91

If you lau wins you win 0.95*£166,700.17 - £50= 158,314.91

Either way laying with a liability of £91,685.09 you would win roughly £160,000 irrespective of who wins the league


Yes you are correct, my mistake. Not even sure what I was trying to work out!
Main problem now though is there's only £39k worth of bets available at those odds, and it looks like maybe £45k overall staked by betters. Might struggle to lay £92k across all the exchange websites in the UK (I know of four), even if you manage to get a rogue bank manager or city financier to loan you the money!
Reply 41
Avatar for elen90
elen90
12
In it to win it, you wimps.
Original post by pol pot noodles
Yes you are correct, my mistake. Not even sure what I was trying to work out!
Main problem now though is there's only £39k worth of bets available at those odds, and it looks like maybe £45k overall staked by betters. Might struggle to lay £92k across all the exchange websites in the UK (I know of four), even if you manage to get a rogue bank manager or city financier to loan you the money!


Yes Betfair only had 45k in their market, it might be tough to get the full 120k down. You could take higher odds too mind, it's not going to make a huge amount of difference
Original post by welcometoib
Original post by Neverdie
Original post by welcometoib
i support tottenham, yet if you are pussy enough to feel that leicester still wont win this comfortably you shouldnt be betting at all.


i support man utd, yet if you are pussy enough to feel that newcastle still wont win this comfortably you shouldnt be betting at all. i'd love it if we beat them. love it.


both united and newcastle are **** teams though, leicester wont cock up from here, as annoying as that is. #keegan


Newcastle were awesome and Man Utd dominated that period...

Leicester have 'won' the title for weeks now, it's just cool to pre-emptively say a team has won a game or competition before they actually have. It's stupid, but people do it. There are several plausible scenarios where Spurs or Leicester win the title. Spurs just have Chelsea to worry about, Leicester have Chelsea and Man Utd, as well as being without Vardy to break down Swansea. There's no guarantee.
Cash out. Risk is too high.
Original post by Neverdie
Newcastle were awesome and Man Utd dominated that period...

Leicester have 'won' the title for weeks now, it's just cool to pre-emptively say a team has won a game or competition before they actually have. It's stupid, but people do it. There are several plausible scenarios where Spurs or Leicester win the title. Spurs just have Chelsea to worry about, Leicester have Chelsea and Man Utd, as well as being without Vardy to break down Swansea. There's no guarantee.


Agree with this, I have a quid on Leicester at 300/1, letting it run.

For me if they lost to Swansea (unlucky obviously) they've lost the title.

I do think Spurs will win all their games, So Leicester need 3 wins or 2 wins and 2 draws. I don't think they'll beat Chelsea, think they'll beat Everton. Man Utd it depends what turns up...
Cash out 72k, because leicester have got chelsea, man utd coming u[ and they could possibly lose, so tottenham could catch up
Reply 47
Avatar for Moura
Moura
18
cash out.... thats a deposit on a house.
See it out.

They're like 4/9 to win it. You've basically got a 72k bet at 2/1 on something that should be 4/9. Can't beat that value.
Original post by Pickles
You have a £50 bet at 5000/1 on Leicester City to win the league this season.

What do you do? Cash out for £72k now or see it through for £250k?


Grab the £72k and run very very quickly!!! :smile: :yep:
Reply 50
Avatar for Amn2016
Amn2016
Dont cash out! They will win
Original post by Pickles
You have a £50 bet at 5000/1 on Leicester City to win the league this season.

What do you do? Cash out for £72k now or see it through for £250k?


I would see it through for £250k because even though spurs are good they need to win lots of games only if leicester lose some which makes it more unlikely so i would stick with it for a while if the gap comes close i would cash out
Original post by Pickles
You have a £50 bet at 5000/1 on Leicester City to win the league this season.

What do you do? Cash out for £72k now or see it through for £250k?



I would see it through for £250k because even though spurs are good they need to win lots of games only if leicester lose some which makes it more unlikely so i would stick with it for a while if the gap comes close i would cash out
Original post by Taran001
I would see it through for £250k because even though spurs are good they need to win lots of games only if leicester lose some which makes it more unlikely so i would stick with it for a while if the gap comes close i would cash out


Spurs only need to win 4 games, Leicester don't even need to lose a game to lose the title.
Reply 54
Avatar for Tom78
Tom78
18
See it through at this point. FIngers crossed, that would be a nerve racking couple of weeks.
I wonder if it'll become a thing now to bet £1 on every team with really long odds to win the title, or maybe qualify for Europe. More chance of winning than the lottery, low cost.
If you really do need the money I'd cash out... but if you think you can handle it you should hold onto it. Leicester are going to win the league...
Original post by Pickles
You have a £50 bet at 5000/1 on Leicester City to win the league this season.

What do you do? Cash out for £72k now or see it through for £250k?


You should've made a poll.
You believed in them enough to make the bet. I don't really know much about soccer but I think you should stick it out.
I'm surprised at the number of people saying cash out here. I think its a near certainty that Leicester will win the league.

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