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Brexit would be 'difficult and lengthy' - Lords Committee

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36195499

The Lords EU Committee said determining the rights of two million UK nationals living in the EU would be a "complex and daunting" part of exit talks.

While they do not recommend a vote either way, peers say trade deals between the EU and non-EU states take between four and nine years on average.

If the UK voted to leave in the referendum on 23 June, it would not mean an immediate exit from the EU.

It would open up a two-year window of negotiation allowed under EU rules, which could be extended, but only if all remaining member states agreed.

The cross-party committee warned that negotiations for withdrawal and to establish a new relationship with the EU would take longer than the two years allowed under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

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So what! Worthwhile changes require sacrifice and endeavour. If the committee members are daunted, as they say, they should get out of the kitchen before it gets too hot for them.
Original post by Good bloke
So what! Worthwhile changes require sacrifice and endeavour.



Which would be fine, if that's what the leave campaign had been saying in public. However they've been insinuating that we'll be fine if not better off immediately after Brexit.
Original post by Davij038
Which would be fine, if that's what the leave campaign had been saying in public. However they've been insinuating that we'll be fine if not better off immediately after Brexit.


Nonsense! Everyone knows there will be a transition period while the details are sorted out.
Reply 5
Hardly fear-mongering when it's entirely true. Untangling the UK from the EU is the realisation of a public lawyers worst nightmare. It would take an incredible length of time and would be vigourously debated by the lawyers put to the task and the myriad of 3rd parties that any decisions could affect.
Original post by Wattsy
Hardly fear-mongering when it's entirely true.


True but unimportant, and unworthy of a thread to try to garner bad press for the concept.

I don't recall the UK's accession being presaged by clowns telling us how difficult the entry negotiations would be, yet they happened, we joined and the rest is history. And, hopefully, the EU soon will be history as far as the UK is concerned.
Still voting out.
So have just come from an leave camapaign thread which was spiiting a load of friothing garbage, to a remain thread which states the balatantly obvious.
Ofc it will take a long time because its complicated, it deosnt mean we wont carry on trading or the sky will fall in.
Reply 9
Two years is not 'more than enough time', and the evidence gathered from the House of Lords European Union Committee says so. It's little more than an aspiration.

And as the article says, EU trade agreements with third countries have taken near decades to secure. There's no chance the UK's Government will have the time or resources to arrange them so quickly.
Reply 10
Original post by 999tigger
So have just come from an leave camapaign thread which was spiiting a load of friothing garbage, to a remain thread which states the balatantly obvious.
Ofc it will take a long time because its complicated, it deosnt mean we wont carry on trading or the sky will fall in.


Which is a reasonable proposition. I'm glad you think it's obvious, as many Leavers insist the opposite, as Peroxidation above demonstrates.
Original post by Good bloke
Nonsense! Everyone knows there will be a transition period while the details are sorted out.


Im glad you agree with me, now you just need to convince Farage, Hannan et Al
Original post by Davij038
Im glad you agree with me, now you just need to convince Farage, Hannan et Al


It is completely irrelevant to the case for exit.
Reply 13
Original post by Good bloke
It is completely irrelevant to the case for exit.


I think it is, because we will be in an indefinite period of limbo for the duration - in the EU for the time, but expecting to leave, but with no idea until the end of what our relationship with the EU would be (EEA? Bilaterals? Free trade? WTO? Something else?)

That's going to give investors jitters.
Original post by gladders
I think it is, because we will be in an indefinite period of limbo for the duration - in the EU for the time, but expecting to leave, but with no idea until the end of what our relationship with the EU would be (EEA? Bilaterals? Free trade? WTO? Something else?)

That's going to give investors jitters.


Don't be silly. It is obvious to anyone of even the meanest intelligence that the UK will be in the EEA. Nobody in their right mind believes anything else.
Reply 15
Original post by Good bloke
Don't be silly. It is obvious to anyone of even the meanest intelligence that the UK will be in the EEA. Nobody in their right mind believes anything else.


If it were really that obvious, we'd have heard Leave campaign for such a thing. They haven't said a bean.

In fact, the Leave campaign seems to be quite split on a lot of things. For many, the objections to EU membership are sovereignty and immigration - and joining the EEA would worsen the former and do nothing for the latter.

It would be the least worst option, i grant you, but I don't think it will be a popular one with the wider eurosceptic public.
Original post by gladders

It would be the least worst option, i grant you,.


Well, the most worst option is staying in, of course.
Reply 17
Original post by Good bloke
Well, the most worst option is staying in, of course.


Actually, I'd rank it above EEA membership by all accounts. At least as a full EU member we would retain considerable influence over legislation in the EU.
Original post by gladders
Actually, I'd rank it above EEA membership by all accounts. At least as a full EU member we would retain considerable influence over legislation in the EU.


Considerable? You must be a glass half-full kind of chap.
Original post by Good bloke
Don't be silly. It is obvious to anyone of even the meanest intelligence that the UK will be in the EEA. Nobody in their right mind believes anything else.


Sure. we'd get what the Norwegians have. With the same (From a eurosceptic perspective) drawbacks- e.g freedom of movement etc.

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