5th May Elections Megathread

I'm honestly hoping for Sadiq to win having talked to him about various issues in my own community. But recently, I've seen some ridiculous articles about him which gave me quite the shock.

You a Londoner?

I somehow doubt that the allegations made about Khan are as big a deal as they're made out. These things rarely are. Yet looking at the state of Labour nowadays, who bloody knows...


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I'm actually quite excited about these elections even though it's probably going to be quite a dull one (from a Lib Dem perspective, a few losses here and there in terms of Scotland and Wales, hopefully a small pick up in vote percentage in local elections in England). I am most interested to see how Labour do in Scotland as I really don't see how Labour can be vying for a majority government in 2020 (haha) or more seriously 2025 without winning a lot of seats in Scotland - so tomorrow's results could shine a little more light on where things are headed.

I tend to agree with your Lib Dem prognosis - Holyrood will be a question of can they keep the Northern Isles (a lot of people have been talking up SNP chances in Orkney, as I recall) and how many list MSPs they can scrape together (probably less than the Greens). In Wales they'll probably hold Brecon (Cardiff Central ain't happening) and probably most of their list members. Hopefully there will be a slight uptick in England with most of the councils held.


Labour is interesting. Unless the SNP die away as quickly as they came, which if it occurs at all will still be fairly gradual, they'll have to put up a hell of a fight in England to get into power. This worsens when you consider the impact of the boundary changes, which will probably get rid of a number of South Wales heartland seats and a fair few undersized urban English constituencies. We'll see how tomorrow goes - sudden growth in 2020 is unlikely whatever happens, but 2025 might be a plausible target for some real improvement (much the same applies to the LDs).

Whatever happens, circumstances have made it such that Labour will need to be getting 57% of the seats from England - nearing 1997 levels - which seems unlikely without a very strong leader or a Majoresque shift in public opinion. Neither seems completely impossible, but even 2025 might be an uphill battle.

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I agree. In some respects maybe all of the issues for the party you have highlighted could prompt radical change sooner than otherwise would have been the case. Clearly there isn't any mood for it at the moment in terms of the party membership, but I feel as though when change eventually comes it won't be in the form of a middle of the road Andy Burnham, but someone like Chuka. Maybe I'm conflating what I want to happen with what might actually happen, though

I agree. In some respects maybe all of the issues for the party you have highlighted could prompt radical change sooner than otherwise would have been the case. Clearly there isn't any mood for it at the moment in terms of the party membership, but I feel as though when change eventually comes it won't be in the form of a middle of the road Andy Burnham, but someone like Chuka. Maybe I'm conflating what I want to happen with what might actually happen, though

Scotland: SNP gains, everybody else loses

Wales: Labour lose 3 or 4 seats, Tories, Plaid and Libs win 1 a piece. Tories gain one of the regions. Labour remains in government.

NI: Unionist gains.

London: Lab win by about the same margin as Boris in 2012 so lets say 6%.

England: Lab to lose as much as 500 seats, Tories, Ukip and Libs all to gain on net.

This is true.

Originally i think that Chucka and Jarvis (probably others) stayed out of the leadership race because they saw the task of 99 (3rd largest seat swing required since 1945) seats as being too difficult in 2020. Now that we have boundary changes increasing that number further and the party elected Corbyn (the likes of Chucka probably expected a Burnham who'd lose but get them halfway) it's very possible that the Tories will end the 2020 election with an adjusted majority not shy of 100 and Labour requiring even more seats in 2025 than they do now.

Pending the next 6 weeks and a leadership election, it's very possible that the UK will see the Tories in power for 20 years.

I just want Labour to do well so Corbyn remains as leader and his position is not called into doubt.

Scotland and Wales I agree. NI will be much the same as last time but if anything maybe minor republican gains I'd say. London I think will be more comprehensive for Sadiq, at least 10% and more like 15%. And England as a whole will be nowhere near that bad for Labour - maybe 100-150 losses, but Corbyn's outright statement we won't lose seats makes me think there's some internal data giving him confidence in that else he'd be knowingly making a rod for his own back, so I'll guess minor gains for Labour.

Corbyn's spokesman has said the comment about not loosing seats was 'misinterpreted', and I've seen many from Labour point out how well they did in 2012, so it sounds like excuses are being made already (valid ones in fairness).
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/corbyn-council-seats-misinterpreted_uk_572a082de4b0e6da49a59f76?ir=UK%2BPolitics&section=uk_politics

I just want Labour to do well so Corbyn remains as leader and his position is not called into doubt.

This is true.

Originally i think that Chucka and Jarvis (probably others) stayed out of the leadership race because they saw the task of 99 (3rd largest seat swing required since 1945) seats as being too difficult in 2020. Now that we have boundary changes increasing that number further and the party elected Corbyn (the likes of Chucka probably expected a Burnham who'd lose but get them halfway) it's very possible that the Tories will end the 2020 election with an adjusted majority not shy of 100 and Labour requiring even more seats in 2025 than they do now.

Pending the next 6 weeks and a leadership election, it's very possible that the UK will see the Tories in power for 20 years.

Local elections, Welsh assembly, Scottish Parliament, mayorals, PCCs... A lot going on tomorrow, with a lot of news to pore over.

Anyone in the mood for a prediction competition? Rep to whoever gets closest.

Goldsmith/Khan vote shares?

Scottish constituency seats that don't go SNP?

Major party seat numbers in Wales/Scotland?

Net council gains?

Most hilariously bad turnout?

Most/least marginal seats?

Degree to which I'm a politics nerd without a life?


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