Scotland and the EU

I am leaning towards voting to leave the EU. The only major thing staying my decision is the possibility of Scotland leaving the union in the event of Brexit. I remember this possibility being raised early on but it seems to have been entirely ignored in recent interviews and debates.

I would like to know how probable this is.

I think less since the Scottish elections. If the SNP had done better, Nicola would have used a Brexit vote opportunistically to lobby for another referendum.

However, with SNP support past its peak and the Tories playing a more explicitly Unionist card than did Labour, it is a dangerous game.

Independence is inherently more risky for Scotland if there is Brexit, because then who is looking out for Edinburgh in any negotiations between London and Brussels/Paris/Berlin?

Frankly there is much more likelihood of a second Brexit referendum to overturn a vote to leave.

I am leaning towards voting to leave the EU. The only major thing staying my decision is the possibility of Scotland leaving the union in the event of Brexit. I remember this possibility being raised early on but it seems to have been entirely ignored in recent interviews and debates.

I would like to know how probable this is.

Thanks - bit slow today however and I do not fully understand what you mean in paragraphs 2-4?

Scottish politics is now a three-way fight with the 2014 referendum having let the Tories back into the argument after 30 years where there were an insufficient number of voters who identified with any Conservative message to create majorities in seats. The SNP are not yet a natural party of government in Scotland and if Sturgeon times an independence referendum wrongly, the net result could be a third party squeeze with the SNP as the third party.

To most Scots the fact that RUK and Scotland continued to be EU members meant that there was very little personal downside to being nationals and residents of a different country. The risks were economic ones. There was a revenue shortfall, Trident might go home, large business might go south and as a smaller economy it was exposed to greater risk. There was no suggestion that a Scot wouldn't be able to do anything post-independence that they could do pre-independence. That assurance goes if RUK leaves the EU. Scotland only gets what deal Scotland can negotiate with RUK at a time when RUK has bigger fish to fry negotiating the terms of its own departure from the EU.

Brexit requires legislation. There is currently no majority in the Commons for Brexit. Brexit has to depend on Parliamentarians respecting the Will of the People in circumstances where no party has pledged to do that in advance and where the SNP, Ulster parties and probably PC can say that the nations they represent voted against Brexit. No-one is being asked as to the terms of Brexit and it is clear that the Brexit camp is a coalition of people who want very different things and people who are expecting very different outcomes. Both MPs and the country at large are likely to divide over this and it is improbable that a parliamentary majority will be secured for the necessary legislation without putting the particular form of Brexit to the public in another referendum.

Sorry to be a bore but I am still not understanding your meaning in paragraph 2

In your final paragraph are you suggesting that Parliament will not consent to leaving the EU without the confirmation of a second referendum vote to leave?

I am leaning towards voting to leave the EU. The only major thing staying my decision is the possibility of Scotland leaving the union in the event of Brexit.

Let them go. Europe is stagnating and so is Scotland. Let them stagnate together.

Remember, to leave the Union Scotland would actually have to have a referendum. The SNP aren't the dictators of Scotland, they don't get to say, "Well, the UK has left Europe therefore Scotland leaves the UK".

The trend suggests SNP plateau and decline, I think it's ludicrous to suggest they would win the next referendum

On the other point, you cannot treat Parliament as an homogeneous whole. Will Ken Clarke vote for legislation to leave the EU if the UK votes Leave? What about if his constituency, Rushcliffe voted in favour of Remain? Would Hilary Benn vote for legislation to leave even if his constituency voted Leave? Would Nicola Sturgeon or Mark Durkan vote leave under any circumstances? Is there a Parliamentary majority for Brexit on the terms proposed, whatever they might be.

Scottish politics is now a three-way fight with the 2014 referendum having let the Tories back into the argument after 30 years where there were an insufficient number of voters who identified with any Conservative message to create majorities in seats. The SNP are not yet a natural party of government in Scotland and if Sturgeon times an independence referendum wrongly, the net result could be a third party squeeze with the SNP as the third party.

To most Scots the fact that RUK and Scotland continued to be EU members meant that there was very little personal downside to being nationals and residents of a different country. The risks were economic ones. There was a revenue shortfall, Trident might go home, large business might go south and as a smaller economy it was exposed to greater risk. There was no suggestion that a Scot wouldn't be able to do anything post-independence that they could do pre-independence. That assurance goes if RUK leaves the EU. Scotland only gets what deal Scotland can negotiate with RUK at a time when RUK has bigger fish to fry negotiating the terms of its own departure from the EU.

Brexit requires legislation. There is currently no majority in the Commons for Brexit. Brexit has to depend on Parliamentarians respecting the Will of the People in circumstances where no party has pledged to do that in advance and where the SNP, Ulster parties and probably PC can say that the nations they represent voted against Brexit. No-one is being asked as to the terms of Brexit and it is clear that the Brexit camp is a coalition of people who want very different things and people who are expecting very different outcomes. Both MPs and the country at large are likely to divide over this and it is improbable that a parliamentary majority will be secured for the necessary legislation without putting the particular form of Brexit to the public in another referendum.

This is a key point, the referendum (despite Cameron going on about how critical it is) doesn't and can't bind Parliament.

I think there's a good likelihood of a low turnout in it anyway, which means we will have a situation (say it went to Leave) where only a small minority of the country had voted Leave. That could easily be overruled by the House, Cameron would then say it could never be a basis for decision as too few people had voted.

I would put it more strongly than that. A vote for Brexit would cause constitutional chaos, and would necessitate a second referendum in short order.

If Scotland left the UK whilst both RUK and Scotland were EU members (and it was odds on that Scotland would have been given a free pass to continued EU membership) there would be no issue about Scots (or vice versa-bearing in mind that persons from RUK living in Scotland could vote in the independence referendum) living or working in RUK, going to university, having investments, using health facilities, buying land, acquiring goods and services without import duties and probably (subject to a Schengen opt out) crossing the border. If a Brit can do it in France, then a Scot would be able to do it in England.

Utter nonsense and wishful thinking to boot.

If Cameron attempts to override a Brexit result, he will be toppled by his own party. There are many Remain-inclined MPs who would not be so dishonourable as to ignore the result of a public referendum, they will see they lost fair and square and vote accordingly.

The referendum is politically binding, everyone has made clear there will be no second referendum. Pro-Brexit Conservatives, Conservatives who don't want to be de-selected and pro-Brexit faction of the Labour Party will constitute majority in parliament.

The arrogant and delusional Remain MPs who attempt to fix remaining in the EU out of a Brexit result will be signing their political death warrants.

I think you may discover that the true political situation after a small majority for Leave is much less clear cut than you fondly imagine.

For one thing, there is absolutely no chance that Cameron is suddenly going to walk away and leave everything to Boris. They hate each other.

No Conservative MP will want to run the risk of almost certain de-selection that would follow an attempt to frustrate the clearly expressed, democratic will of the British people.

My point is what if it's not clearly expressed, or can be arguably said to be not clearly expressed? Either way actually - I'm quite sure if it's 55:45 to Remain or something like that (as seems likely) that Farage, Gove, Boris and Duncan-Smirk will be back on the boil demanding another referendum about a week later.

To butt in: from what I heard, it was the opposite. I would have thought certain members of the EU (i.e. Spain and Belgium) would have done their utmost to bar Scotland from becoming its own independent member of the EU. What with them having similar political situations of their own with regards to Catalonia and Flanders etc. I would imagine they would have rallied to veto the membership; those were the predictions I heard being made, which made sense.