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I think Britain is going to remain in the EU.

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Original post by The Roast
They wouldn't dare. It's fearmongering - just like putting us "at the back of the queue" if we leave. We are one of the most important countries in Europe.


If anything there's a real risk the UK will lose the Rebate in the medium term if it remains...

But as I say, there is *no* way it would be on offer to a future UK trying to get back in.

And I agree a lot of what is being said *is* fearmongering on both sides. But getting the Rebate back would not happen. Not fear, just being pragmatic and realistic.
Original post by jneill
If anything there's a real risk the UK will lose the Rebate in the medium term if it remains...

But as I say, there is *no* way it would be on offer to a future UK trying to get back in.

And I agree a lot of what is being said *is* fearmongering on both sides. But getting the Rebate back would not happen. Not fear, just being pragmatic and realistic.


The rebate has a pretty limited lifespan at this point anywhere. It's up for renegotiation every 7(?) years, and in the current economic climate - especially when how much better we're doing than the other EU countries - if we stay it shan't be long before we more or less have to give it up.
Original post by Luke Kostanjsek
The rebate has a pretty limited lifespan at this point anywhere. It's up for renegotiation every 7(?) years, and in the current economic climate - especially when how much better we're doing than the other EU countries - if we stay it shan't be long before we more or less have to give it up.


Yes 7 years. Current deal is in place until 2020. And the UK has a veto over any changes.

Oh yes and that veto is something else we'd likely not have if we tried to get back into EU if we leave.

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Original post by jneill
Yes 7 years. Current deal is in place until 2020. And the UK has a veto over any changes.

Oh yes and that veto is something else we'd likely not have if we tried to get back into EU if we leave.

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The veto isn't one we're likely to actually exercise when next negotiating the rebate though, cause practically we'd find ourselves being punished elsewhere.

That'd be the least of our worries. It's likely we'd have to join the euro if we tried to rejoin the EU; not something I'm worried about though, cause if we leave we'll prosper whilst the EU crumbles :smile:
Original post by jneill
Yes 7 years. Current deal is in place until 2020. And the UK has a veto over any changes.

Oh yes and that veto is something else we'd likely not have if we tried to get back into EU if we leave.

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The veto would be toast,

More importantly the Euro opt out and the Schengen opt out would be extremely difficult to keep.
Original post by Luke Kostanjsek
if we leave we'll prosper whilst the EU crumbles :smile:


If we leave we and the rest of the EU and the rest of the world will be poorer. The only serious question is who is the worst off from it.
Original post by nulli tertius
If we leave we and the rest of the EU and the rest of the world will be poorer. The only serious question is who is the worst off from it.


Unless you think - as I do - that the EU is crashing some time soon regardless of if we stay or leave, in which case bailing before the crash is our best bet.
Original post by nulli tertius
If we leave we and the rest of the EU and the rest of the world will be poorer. The only serious question is who is the worst off from it.

You guys can't help yourselves!

Even on the most doom laden of the group think Treasury and IMF forecasts (which all use the same worst case assumptions and the same models so, supeise surprise come to the same conclusions), which I don't accept, we won't be poorer if we claim back our freedom as a sovereign nation.

Just a bit less richer.

Words matter.
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Luke Kostanjsek
Unless you think - as I do - that the EU is crashing some time soon regardless of if we stay or leave, in which case bailing before the crash is our best bet.


That does not necessarily follow.

Analogies are not particularly helpful, but the most likely person to pick up a business at a knock down price is the guy running it when it goes bust, not the guy who left a year earlier.
Original post by generallee
You guys can't help yourselves!

Even on the most doom laden of the group think Treasury and IMF forecasts (which all use the same worst case assumptions and the same models so, supeise surprise come to the same conclusions), which I don't accept, we won't be poorer if we claim back our freedom as a sovereign nation.

Just a bit less richer.

Words matter.


Well you can be poorer. I would prefer not to be less rich.
Original post by jneill
The UK currently has preferential terms compared to Greece. Not least the Rebate.

There's absolutely no way the EU would allow UK back in and reinstate the Rebate.

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You are assuming that if we leave there will be an EU to try and get back into later.

I would argue that it is a brave assumption.

A very likely scenario is that other countries have referenda to leave too. And the polls say that Leave would win in many countries, including the spiritual homeland of the European ideal, the land of Jean Monnet, France.

You need to see beyond the very straitened horizons of the European elite, whose narrative you are following.

This is a chance to smash the rotten European Union. If we break down the door with our pitchforks the whole rotten edifice could collapse at the hands of the people. We are not talking Monnet, but Rousseau!

I encourage everyone reading this thread to seize the chance to take back power from this unelected cabal. Let's see the re emergence of the nation state with the European Union returned to a free trade zone.

We don't need to haggle over a rebate because there won't be anything to rebate! Pare the bureaucracy back to the bones, an end to the Commission and the 30,000 civil servants in Brussels.

What good do they serve? Who needs them?
Original post by nulli tertius
That does not necessarily follow.

Analogies are not particularly helpful, but the most likely person to pick up a business at a knock down price is the guy running it when it goes bust, not the guy who left a year earlier.


That's a rather inaccurate analogy indeed. If you look at the fallout from the first Greek bailout crisis, the countries worst hit were the EU countries. If a disaster hits an EU country, it's the EU countries who get hardest hit. I don't believe that there is a viable solution to the migrant crisis, nor to the problem of Greece' debt (and more broadly, the stagflationary cycle the entirety of continental Europe is stuck in), within the context of the EU. So I think the sooner we stop tethering ourselves to these countries, and actually start developing policy strictly for our own benefit, the better.
Original post by Luke Kostanjsek
That's a rather inaccurate analogy indeed. If you look at the fallout from the first Greek bailout crisis, the countries worst hit were the EU countries. If a disaster hits an EU country, it's the EU countries who get hardest hit. I don't believe that there is a viable solution to the migrant crisis, nor to the problem of Greece' debt (and more broadly, the stagflationary cycle the entirety of continental Europe is stuck in), within the context of the EU. So I think the sooner we stop tethering ourselves to these countries, and actually start developing policy strictly for our own benefit, the better.


The analogy isn't good, but it is better than yours; "crash". The EU won't hit a wall if it fails. It will "unravel" but even that isn't very good because what will happen is that exceptions will be created to its underlying principles until those exceptions engulf the whole.

The cost has fallen on Greece's main trading partners not the EU per se. Those EU members that barely traded with Greece will have barely noticed the impact of the Greek crisis
Original post by nulli tertius
The analogy isn't good, but it is better than yours; "crash". The EU won't hit a wall if it fails. It will "unravel" but even that isn't very good because what will happen is that exceptions will be created to its underlying principles until those exceptions engulf the whole.

The cost has fallen on Greece's main trading partners not the EU per se. Those EU members that barely traded with Greece will have barely noticed the impact of the Greek crisis


When I say crash, I don't mean it analogously. I mean in the literal sense of a financial crash, which is what the euro is fast approaching.

The impact should have fallen primarily on Greece's main trading partners, and would have done were Europe just a collection of entirely sovereign states. But as a result of the EU and, perhaps more significantly, the euro, Greece's financial vulnerability is threatening to destroy dozens of economies.
Original post by nulli tertius
The analogy isn't good, but it is better than yours; "crash". The EU won't hit a wall if it fails. It will "unravel" but even that isn't very good because what will happen is that exceptions will be created to its underlying principles until those exceptions engulf the whole.

The cost has fallen on Greece's main trading partners not the EU per se. Those EU members that barely traded with Greece will have barely noticed the impact of the Greek crisis


If there is a catastrophic crash caused by the EU's unutterably stupid decision to go into monetary union without political union we would be better off out of the EU.

It isn't going to be great for us either way, frankly, (thanks guys) but being out would be slightly less bad.

The Greek crisis continues unabated and unresolved. And once this referendum is completed will come back into the headlines. There needs to be an orderly default and German taxpayer has to take the hit.

If they don't default it will just rumble on and on until the Greek people can't take it any more.

And a disorderly default WOULD cause contagion and an economic crash.

The end of the EU, as currently constituted too, probably, but it wouldn't be worth going through the pain for that. :frown:
Original post by jneill
The UK currently has preferential terms compared to Greece. Not least the Rebate.

There's absolutely no way the EU would allow UK back in and reinstate the Rebate.

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And we have the rebate for how much longer?

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Original post by Jammy Duel
And we have the rebate for how much longer?

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See above.

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Original post by jneill


It can be as good as abolished without actually abolishing it, care to tell me what is really different about it being trivially low and being abolished?

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Original post by generallee
You guys can't help yourselves!

Even on the most doom laden of the group think Treasury and IMF forecasts (which all use the same worst case assumptions and the same models so, supeise surprise come to the same conclusions), which I don't accept, we won't be poorer if we claim back our freedom as a sovereign nation.

Just a bit less richer.

Words matter.


I am sure the Leavers can't tell the difference between being poor and being less rich, what a bunch intellectual giants.
(edited 7 years ago)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTMxfAkxfQ0

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