If the result is Leave, will we leave?

This poll is closed

After a Leave result in the Referendum, the UK would...

End up remaining after a lot of discussion and debate with little real change 21%

End up remaining but with some meaningful changes 10%

Leave but only half-heartedly and with little real change 41%

Leave abruptly and possibly chaotically28%

Total votes: 176

Fullofsurprises

With many polls now suggesting a majority for Leave, I can't help but wonder what the real outcome of a Leave vote would be.

The law that created the referendum in no way binds the government to do any specific thing as a result. Cameron will not want to leave. Even if he immediately resigned and was replaced in an election by Bojo or Teresa May, there are no certainties. May is a Remainer and Boris was until about a month before the campaign and he saw an opportunity to defeat his old enemy Dave.

So what would actually happen? Would HMG steam in to battle, determined to remove us from the EU? Or something different?

My guess is there would be a prolonged period of 'negotiating the departure'. At the end of it, the government will announce that there are so many terrible consequences that having thought it all over, they think the best thing would be to remain in after all.

Thoughts?

Scroll to see replies

Reply 1

Naveed.178

I choose:
-Leave, things getting better. Less pressure on our economy, lower tax charges and better control on amount of immigration

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 2

username1177050

The members of parliament better listen to the will of the people otherwise there will be rioting in the streets and it would be seen by the common man as going directly against direct democracy. In fact, they would be worse than the eu. Ministers and MPs property would come under attack and threats made to them. How dare they have the audacity to go against a mandate

Reply 3

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Naveed-7

I choose:
-Leave, things getting better. Less pressure on our economy and better control on amount of immigration

You might. The question is, does the government really care.

Reply 4

Fullofsurprises

Original post by neal95

They will be more subtle than that. There will be all kinds of statements about 'welcoming the will of the people' and 'getting down to negotiations about leaving', etc, etc. After about a year of negotiating they will announce that it's all far too difficult.

Reply 5

Alexion

In the result of a Leave vote ~ We will leave. It won't be immediate, but democracy will have spoken and we will end up outside the EU.

Let's hope it doesn't happen though.

Reply 6

Jfire

This is the Tories that we're talking about. They've not listened to the people yet, so why would they change things now. They'll probably spend a long time discussing some new plan to have trade with EU countries and it'll end up being the exact same thing as the EU is at the minute, so they'll either put in these new agreeements that are basically the EU in everything but name or realise it's the same as the EU and just stay.

If anything, the only real difference might be that Mr. Cameron disappears....

Reply 7

username1177050

Original post by Fullofsurprises

We won't accept that tosh any more!

Reply 8

sleepysnooze

what is this ridiculous excuse of a poll? you've basically excluded any chance of people simply voting "leave completely" without "with bad consequences" ("chaotically"] tagged on?
you think this isn't biased? like, even slightly? no? why make a parody of a serious poll here? are you joking or something?
"leave without any meaningful change" vs "leave with chaos" - I mean, do you even think through what you've written? are you so immature that you couldn't have just put "leave with meaningful change" because you're so committed to your views that are against leaving? don't you realise that people have different views to you? :| either that or you've deliberately posed these options to make it seems like brexiters are anticipating "chaos". that's so clearly the alternative agenda here, and it's puzzlingly stupid.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 9

CheeseIsVeg

Surely we'd have to leave and who knows what chaos would follow
Otherwise there'd be riots and whatnot :hide:

Reply 10

CheeseIsVeg

Original post by sleepysnooze

what is this ridiculous excuse of a poll? you've basically excluded any chance of people simply voting "leave completely" without "with bad consequences" ("chaotically" :wink:

tagged on?
you think this isn't biased? like, even slightly? no? why make a parody of a serious poll here? are you joking or something?

This is a very fair point

Spoiler

Reply 11

Olie

I'm don't support Leave and hope we don't vote that, but if we did vote that it would make an absolute mockery of the referendum if we didn't actually leave on the will of the voting public, but who knows what will happen. I guess there would be a pretty reasonable chance of Cameron resigning though.

Reply 12

M14B

Is this a trick question?
If we vote leave we leave

Reply 13

Fullofsurprises

Original post by M14B

Is this a trick question?
If we vote leave we leave

No and it really won't be that simple. There isn't anything binding about the referendum.

Reply 14

Fullofsurprises

Original post by sleepysnooze

I called the options as I saw them. I don't believe there's a 'leave completely' option that doesn't involve massive chaotic and unforeseeably negative consequences.

Reply 15

jamestg

Original post by Fullofsurprises

If there's a very low turnout and the result is very close, the government might be able to ignore the result. Also even if the government approves, a bill for the UK to leave the EU could technically not be given Royal Assent - however this hasn't happened since the 1700s.

Therefore it is extremely unlikely for the government to ignore the result - it would probably spark something serious within the UK if it did happen. Not civil war lol, but a lot of civil unrest. 2011 London riots but across the country.

Reply 16

davgen7

My prediction

85% at least will vote leave
It will be rigged and it will be announced that we voted to stay

Or

85% will vote leave
The politicians all have to agree to leave to actually enforce it and they wont
It takes 4 years to leave by which point we will be so swamped with immigrants getting in while they still can that it wont make much difference

The people making money of us staying are the same people who get to realistically decide if we stay or leave

Its not gonna happen lads

Reply 17

jamestg

Original post by davgen7

85% leave?????

Reply 18

mero22

pretty sure protests will happen no matter what the outcome is.

Reply 19

davgen7

Original post by jamestg

85% leave?????

The vast majority of people want to leave
I admit that may just be the people who surround me though who may not be representative of the entire population