bookmakers say stay in !!!

the bear

here are today's odds; they show a clear preference for Remaining in the EU

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Reply 1

Puddles the Monkey

Original post by the bear

here are today's odds; they show a clear preference for Remaining in the EU

Please could you explain these numbers to me, I do not understand :redface:

Reply 2

Jebedee

The bookmakers are just speculating on the result. They obviously take into account the likelihood that even if the leave campaign gets more votes, there is likely to be foul play in favour of remain. Leave needs a landslide in order to win.

Reply 3

Jammy Duel

And that will change in the next week unless the polls swing back and/or the current weather forecast for the day is wrong

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 4

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Puddles the Monkey

Please could you explain these numbers to me, I do not understand :redface:

I'm not quite sure either Puddles, but I suspect Bear's strip of figures is the result from each bookmaking company or site, with the name of the firm snipped off the top.

Reply 5

Davalla

Original post by Puddles the Monkey

Please could you explain these numbers to me, I do not understand :redface:

Original post by Fullofsurprises

I'm not quite sure either Puddles, but I suspect Bear's strip of figures is the result from each bookmaking company or site, with the name of the firm snipped off the top.

Correcto^
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Reply 6

Puddles the Monkey

Original post by Davalla

Correcto^
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

Gambling is confusing :lol:

Reply 7

Fullofsurprises

Original post by Puddles the Monkey

Gambling is confusing :lol:

And costly. :smile:

That said, I have had a bet on the Referendum, on Remain. Perhaps I'm a hopeless optimist. :teehee:

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 8

the bear

Original post by Puddles the Monkey

Gambling is confusing :lol:

i removed the names of the companies to avoid problems....

anyway if it says the odds for Remain are 4/7...

that means if you bet $7 on Remain and the result is Remain you will win $4 ( and get your $7 back as well )

if you bet on Remain and the unthinkable happens then you would lose your $7.

on the other hand if for some weird reason you wanted to bet on Exit....

if the odds are 13/8 then if you bet €8 then you would win €13 ( and get your €8 back too ) if the result were in your favour.

if the result were Remain then you would lose your €8.

One of the other companies is offering 7/4.... this is the same as 14/8... so it would be better odds than 13/8.

:hat2:

Reply 9

username1799249

Original post by Puddles the Monkey

Gambling is confusing :lol:

The referendum is a bet. If you stay, you kind of know what you are getting. If we leave, we close our eyes, put our hands over our ears and hope for the best.

Reply 10

Fenice

Original post by ByEeek

The referendum is a bet. If you stay, you kind of know what you are getting. If we leave, we close our eyes, put our hands over our ears and hope for the best.

What a hopelessly pathetic attitude you have about the UK

Reply 11

Fenice

I think we will probably vote to Remain.

I am planning to place a sizeable wager on the Remain vote being between 50.01 and 55%

Reply 12

EuanF

The bookmakers dont say "stay in", they're saying "this is what people have bet on", which is why the odds for staying are drifting (become less likely) and the odds for leaving are shortening (becoming more likely)

Reply 13

Doones

Original post by the bear

here are today's odds; they show a clear preference for Remaining in the EU

But the gap has narrowed significantly in the last couple of weeks.

The Spectator helpfully has an auto-updating chart taking data from Oddschecker
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/chance-vote-leave-reaches-highest-level-ever/

I think the phrase "squeeky bum time" applies

Screen Shot 2016-06-15 at 20.12.00.jpg

Reply 14

ddrrzzeerr

Those odds are the shortest they have been since the campaign started. Brexit has stormed in over the last week.

Current Betfair are 1.54 to stay and 2.83 to leave. For those who don't understand odds, this translate to an implied probability of 65% for staying and 35% for leave.

Personally, I trust the bookies more than opinion polls. If the opinion polls were trust worthy, the smart money would come for brexit and the odds would be pushed down until it was favourite.

Reply 15

Forum User

Original post by jneill

And just to clarify for the thread how you got those vote percentages from the Betfair prices it's:

1.54 + 2.83 = 4.37

Stay % = 1.54 / 4.37 = 35%
Leave % = 2.83 / 4.37 = 65%

Simples :smile:

(BTW look to the post above yours for a nice chart...)

No.

Stay % is 100 / 1.54 = 65%
Leave % is 100 / 2.38 = 35%

Reply 16

ddrrzzeerr

Original post by jneill

And just to clarify for the thread how you got those vote percentages from the Betfair prices it's:

1.54 + 2.83 = 4.37

Stay % = 1.54 / 4.37 = 35%
Leave % = 2.83 / 4.37 = 65%

Simples :smile:

(BTW look to the post above yours for a nice chart...)