If the result is Leave, will we leave?

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Well, the traditional H of C assumption is that the government take it the House as a key bill and then if that falls, there is a vote of no confidence and if it fails, the government accepts the verdict and calls an election. In theory.

Even in that scenario, Brexit is far from assured - if, as I suspect, Parliament thwarts an immediate attempt at legislation and then the government fell to no confidence, Dave resigns and there's a snap election, there is no guarantee that the new government returned would be any more likely to get it through, or would even want to.

The thing is, right now, there's a solid Parliamentary majority for Remain.

Ukip would surge, neither party could get a majority, the new Tory leader would be a brexiteer. They would then form a coalition with ukip with a three line whip vote to ratify being one of the first things on the agenda. Labour would suffer their worst result since 1935, Tories would lose their majority and be forced to work with ukip, the chance of a Scottish referendum would increase; neither the Tories nor labour want this, so any such vote would comfortably pass, it would be three line aye with very harsh punishment for dissent.

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Reply 182

Doones

And there you have it. A vote for Brexit is a vote for UKIP.

Or at the very least, a UKIP-defined body politic.

Great...

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(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 183

Original post by jneill

And there you have it. A vote for Brexit is a vote for UKIP.

Or at the very least, a UKIP-defined body-politic.

Great...

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Wow, the spin on that, you could work for the Tory party...

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Reply 184

Doones

Original post by Jammy Duel

Wow, the spin on that, you could work for the Tory party...

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You just said it yourself. UKIP would surge, and the other parties would have to make any decisions with UKIP front and centre in their mind.

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Reply 185

Original post by jneill

You just said it yourself. UKIP would surge, and the other parties would have to make any decisions with UKIP front and centre in their mind.

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This is on the proviso that they try to block a leave vote, I.e. they ignore the democratic mandate provided to them. As I said, the Tories always want good spin doctors, go apply for a job with "I managed to spin brexit to mean ukip winning the next election"

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Reply 186

That Bearded Man

22

Interesting, I assumed full reset with about 2 months to continue whatever arrangement we currently have. Cameron wouldn't be leading negotiations though.

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Reply 187

Original post by That Bearded Man

Interesting, I assumed full reset with about 2 months to continue whatever arrangement we currently have. Cameron wouldn't be leading negotiations though.

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He'll have a mid range cabinet position at best, most likely will resign to the back benches

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Reply 188

Original post by Jammy Duel

Ukip would surge, neither party could get a majority, the new Tory leader would be a brexiteer. They would then form a coalition with ukip with a three line whip vote to ratify being one of the first things on the agenda. Labour would suffer their worst result since 1935, Tories would lose their majority and be forced to work with ukip, the chance of a Scottish referendum would increase; neither the Tories nor labour want this, so any such vote would comfortably pass, it would be three line aye with very harsh punishment for dissent.

That scenario doesn't work.

Any moral obligation to back the result of the referendum ceases with a general election because each MP then has a personal mandate from his constituency.

An increase in the UKIP vote doesn't necessarily mean a substantial increase in UKIP seats.

Attempts to force the electorate to answer the question posed by a sitting PM usually end in failure. It didn't work in 1910, in 1918, in 1945 and in 1974.

A general election will return a divided Conservative Party, resolutely Remain Labour Party and SNP, a slightly larger Remain Lib Dem Party and a slightly larger (between 10-15 seat) UKIP whose position cannot be determined at this point.

UKIP, or at least part of it, may have denounced the Brexit agreement as a sell-out, prior to any general election. That was of course the position of the SNP in 1979; they opposed devolution and going back further that was the position of a substantial proportion of Irish Nationalists in 1922-3.

The problem as Asquith found in 1910 and Wilson in 1974 is that asking the question a second time doesn't necessarily produce a better answer. The public tend to return the same answer.

What punishment can a party leader hand out for dissent? Traditionally the answer would be the ability to hold a coupon election and to withhold the coupon. With the FTPA, a PM has no power to call an election to punish dissenters.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 189

username1148663

Original post by Jammy Duel

I would think it improbable that it weren't ratified, if they don't ratify we're in for an interesting election in 2020, if not sooner.

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It's fairly simple you would have Nigel farage as prime minister at the general election if they voted down a leave vote.

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Reply 190

Universities Forum Helper

Original post by paul514

It's fairly simple you would have Nigel farage as prime minister at the general election if they voted down a leave vote.

Nonsense.

That isn't how the public vote in such scenarios.

Moreover, Farage may well be leading objections to what he regards as a sell-out deal.

The Conservative government will be trying to bind him, and anyone else they can, into supporting their Brexit deal in advance of the negotiations. If Farage has any sense he won't fall for that.

The government is likely to find a distinct lack of bodies willing to get on the plane to Brussels for these talks. IDS and Grayling may be fool enough to do so. I would doubt Boris and Gove would be willing to go.

The key text to read is Peace by Ordeal, Lord Longford's account, written in the 1920s from first hand sources of the negotiation of the Anglo-Irish Treaty.

Reply 191

Snufkin

If we do vote to leave on the 23rd and it goes to a vote in the commons, it will come down to how many MPs are scared of losing their seat if they don't support Brexit. I'd like to believe that most MPs value their beliefs more than their careers, but that is probably just wishful thinking.

Reply 192

Original post by Snufkin

If we do vote to leave on the 23rd and it goes to a vote in the commons, it will come down to how many MPs are scared of losing their seat if they don't support Brexit. I'd like to believe that most MPs value their beliefs more than their careers, but that is probably just wishful thinking.

A lot of the posters here think that because 51% back Brexit and 49% Remain, some Tory MP with a 20,000 majority is suddenly going to be unseated by UKIP at a general election if he abstains on a Brexit Bill.

Moreover there isn't going to be a general election before Brexit terms are published. At that point the issue will be, not is thre a Parliamentary majority for Brexit but rather is there a Parliamentary majority for these Brexit terms?

Reply 193

Original post by nulli tertius

A lot of the posters here think that because 51% back Brexit and 49% Remain, some Tory MP with a 20,000 majority is suddenly going to be unseated by UKIP at a general election if he abstains on a Brexit Bill.

Moreover there isn't going to be a general election before Brexit terms are published. At that point the issue will be, not is thre a Parliamentary majority for Brexit but rather is there a Parliamentary majority for these Brexit terms?

Very few MPs have 20,000 majorities..

It also has to be remembered is that where there will be the most people annoyed by an overturning UKIP tend to be in second place already

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Reply 194

Original post by Jammy Duel

Very few MPs have 20,000 majorities..

That really doesn't answer the point , does it.

It also has to be remembered is that where there will be the most people annoyed by an overturning UKIP tend to be in second place already

But all those folk who vote UKIP already don't really matter. Those votes were lost to the sitting MP at or before the last election.

The two relevant questions are:-

How many people who voted for the MP at the last election will switch their vote because of the MP's actions; and

How much tactical voting will occur with supporters of other parties

But the key point is that the debate will have moved on. It won't be a debate about Brexit in the abstract but a debate about specific Brexit terms and it will be a debate against a background that we will have started to see the economic effects of a Leave vote which means that the electorate will be judging the reliability of the short term economic forecasts made by the two sides.

My personal view is that the Treasury have under-estimated the negative effects of Brexit and there will be a publicly recognisable economic crisis.

Reply 195

Original post by nulli tertius

That really doesn't answer the point , does it.

But all those folk who vote UKIP already don't really matter. Those votes were lost to the sitting MP at or before the last election.

The two relevant questions are:-

How many people who voted for the MP at the last election will switch their vote because of the MP's actions; and

How much tactical voting will occur with supporters of other parties

But the key point is that the debate will have moved on. It won't be a debate about Brexit in the abstract but a debate about specific Brexit terms and it will be a debate against a background that we will have started to see the economic effects of a Leave vote which means that the electorate will be judging the reliability of the short term economic forecasts made by the two sides.

My personal view is that the Treasury have under-estimated the negative effects of Brexit and there will be a publicly recognisable economic crisis.

I'm not quite sure how the votes cast to ukip in the last election were lost before the election and given to the sitting MP, that literally makes no sense...

And we're hardly going to have a debate on exit terms if the exit has been blocked are we? Or as well as cast votes being lost and cast simultaneously do we also now debate things that don't happen?

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Reply 196

Original post by Jammy Duel

I'm not quite sure how the votes cast to ukip in the last election were lost before the election and given to the sitting MP, that literally makes no sense...

If Mr Smith voted Tory in 2005, voted UKIP in 2010 and still voted UKIP in 2015 his vote was lost to the Tories sometime between 2005 and 2010. It is meaningless to say his vote was only lost to the Tories in 2015 because he could have, but didn't, change his mind in 2015 and vote Tory.

And we're hardly going to have a debate on exit terms if the exit has been blocked are we? Or as well as cast votes being lost and cast simultaneously do we also now debate things that don't happen?

Of course we are. Parliament isn't going to have a vote on Brexit until 2nd reading of the Bill to carry Brexit into effect following the deal the government makes. The referendum result is authority for Brexit negotiations to start.

Leave's idea of a rolling Brexit where we seemingly repatriate some powers unilaterally but leave others while we try and negotiate deals is a non-starter. We would be effectively chucked out the day we expressly repudiate any aspect of the EU legal order regardless of whether the Treaties permit this. The other 27 states will not allow us to make a monkey of them.

There is going to be a single Brexit Bill implementing a deal of some sort.

Reply 197

Fullofsurprises

OP

20

Original post by Snufkin

If we do vote to leave on the 23rd and it goes to a vote in the commons, it will come down to how many MPs are scared of losing their seat if they don't support Brexit. I'd like to believe that most MPs value their beliefs more than their careers, but that is probably just wishful thinking.

Yep, the great majority of MPs think about re-election 24/7 and care about very little else, frankly.

One relevant point here is the number of sitting Tory MPs who support Remain - at least 150 by most counts.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/02/which-tory-mps-back-brexit-who-doesnt-and-who-is-still-on-the-fence/

Then there are another dozen fence sitters who simply won't say. That's a clear majority of Tory MPs not supporting Leave.

Reply 198