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Polls now show consistent lead for Brexit

The polls have shown Brexit with a consistent lead now for weeks. Unless this is reversed it seems like the UK population will vote to leave the EU next week.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

The German Finance Minister has decided to make ludicrous and implausible threats about how the UK will not be allowed market access to the EU. In reality, German exporters (who have a massive seat at the EU table) will force the German government to concede on this issue.

Fully one-third of the German car export market is met by British demand. The EU overall has a trade surplus with the UK, meaning it is more in their interests than in ours to have a trade agreement.

The European Commission really is in a bind. The mainland European economy is still weak, significantly weaker than Britain's. A Brexit could cause renewed questions about Euro stability, and Europe losing one of its largest export markets (the UK) out of spite for the UK leaving might well seal the deal. But the European Commission does not want others to see that they can also leave but still have a reasonably good deal. They don't want other countries to see that they can live without EU oversight.

This just underlines the arrogance of the European Commission; they probably could have bought a Remain vote by giving Cameron a good deal which allowed the UK to stay in the EU without some of the more controversial aspects. But they viewed him as the supplicant, the beggar, coming before the monarch asking for a favour, and they arrogantly declined. Now they will pay the price for that.

Up until about a month ago I was going to vote Remain. But I can no longer stomach the arrogance, the mismanagement, the corruption, the waste, fraud and abuse, of the European Union. The vast majority of countries in the world are not members of the EU, and they manage just fine. Heck, they even trade with Europe (some of them, like Canada, under a free trade agreement). The more dire predictions about Brexit are laughable. Time for Britain to lead the way out of this sclerotic organisation.

The left-wing case for Brexit

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That is honestly terrifying:s-smilie:
Original post by Thutmose-III
...


and once again the bookmakers say you are wrong

brexitodds10.png
The lead isn't even that big
Original post by danuuutka
That is honestly terrifying:s-smilie:


Its a good thing.
Original post by the bear
and once again the bookmakers say you are wrong


It's unclear why I'm supposed to take that seriously as a prediction. The bookies got the 2015 election wrong.

I'm not a gambling addict so I prefer to rely on my reason, my intellect, on a number of different sources of information, to determine the likelihood of a particular outcome, not what a bookmaker says is going to happen.
Original post by loginrunner
The lead isn't even that big


53 to 47 is a solid lead. Other polls have shown up to an 8-point lead for Brexit. All the polls are showing pretty much the same thing; a Brexit lead that exceeds the margin of error.
I'm honestly scared.

Do I move to Germany?
Original post by Thutmose-III
It's unclear why I'm supposed to take that seriously as a prediction. The bookies got the 2015 election wrong.

I'm not a gambling addict so I prefer to rely on my reason, my intellect, on a number of different sources of information, to determine the likelihood of a particular outcome, not what a bookmaker says is going to happen.


Bookmakers try to offset losses by offering different odds depending on bets already placed as well as the prediction as a form of hedging.
Original post by Daddy Longlegz
I'm honestly scared.

Do I move to Germany?


Scared of what?

There is, by the way, a long tradition of hysterical left wingers saying that if X wins the election they will leave the country. They said it in 2000 and 2004 re George Bush Jr. Some Britons said it before the 2015 election. It's very hard to take it seriously.
Original post by Thutmose-III
Scared of what?

There is, by the way, a long tradition of hysterical left wingers saying that if X wins the election they will leave the country. They said it in 2000 and 2004 re George Bush Jr. Some Britons said it before the 2015 election. It's very hard to take it seriously.


London houseprices fall by 40%

Foreign investment leaves the city

Worker protection laws are repealed


It's absolutely terrifying.
Original post by Daddy Longlegz
Bookmakers try to offset losses by offering different odds depending on bets already placed as well as the prediction as a form of hedging.


I know how bookmaking works, I'm Australian for goodness sake. I'm saying that relying on the outcome which has the best odds from the bookmakers is a laughable way of making political predictions. The bookmaker "prediction" for the 2015 election was wrong. Many bookies were offering Lab coalition as the outcome with the "lowest" (i.e. most likely) odds.

In any case, the clear shift in the polls has been followed by a clear shift in the odds

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-betting-bookmakers-say-leave-odds-will-be-favourite-by-the-weekend-2016-6
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Thutmose-III
I know how bookmaking works, I'm Australian for goodness sake. I'm saying that relying on the outcome which has the best odds from the bookmakers is a laughable way of making political predictions. The bookmaker odds for the 2015 election was wrong.

In any case, the clear shift in the polls has been followed by a clear shift in the odds

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-betting-bookmakers-say-leave-odds-will-be-favourite-by-the-weekend-2016-6


I was agreeing with you that Brexit is looking very likely, @Bear's point that the bookmakers are predicting a remain win is a poor way to make a prediction given the other pressures
Original post by Daddy Longlegz
London houseprices fall by 40%

Sounds great to me. Pretty much everyone my age who lives in this city would like to see more affordable housing.

Foreign investment leaves the city


That's a hysterical prediction. Some businesses in the city say that Remain is their preferred scenario (particularly investment bankers), though if we get a trade deal it won't really matter. Other businesses (currency traders) say that in fact Brexit is the better option and that the prospect of a European Tobin Tax is a threat to the City. It's swings and roundabouts.

No other city in Europe is set up to be a financial centre in the way London is. We'll get a free trade deal because it's in Europe's interests to do so, in which case the investment banking side of the City will be fine.

Worker protection laws are repealed


No, that's not how it works. The protections provided by European law for workers have been implemented by way of EU directives; they don't have direct effect and have to be transposed into UK law by way of legislation enacted by parliament. Leaving the EU doesn't mean those protections are automatically repealed
Original post by Thutmose-III



No, that's not how it works. The protections provided by European law for workers have been implemented by way of EU directives; they don't have direct effect and have to be transposed into UK law by way of legislation enacted by parliament. Leaving the EU doesn't mean those protections are automatically repealed


Just the thing I was wondering. I have no background in law and was concerned as to how those laws put in place by the EU which have helped many of the poorest people would fare.

What about the danger of the UK breaking up if a leave vote gives strength to the SNP above the border?
Original post by physicsphysics91
Its a good thing.


I would have to disagree with you there.
Original post by Daddy Longlegz
I was agreeing with you that Brexit is looking very likely, @Bear's point that the bookmakers are predicting a remain win is a poor way to make a prediction given the other pressures


Ahh, got it. Though in some ways the hedge can work in both directions in the sense that if they believe Brexit is more likely, then you almost have to lengthen the odds on Remain to attract gamblers to that outcome (depending on whether gamblers see it is a risk/investment or a prediction).. So on the other hand gamblers are sometimes inclined to see the shortest odds as a sure thing so they might be attracted to shorter odds.
Original post by Daddy Longlegz
Just the thing I was wondering. I have no background in law and was concerned as to how those laws put in place by the EU which have helped many of the poorest people would fare.


A lot of the EU employment protections are the sort of things the average worker only encounters rarely (such as the obligation to consult employees or unions if there are more than 20 redundancies contemplated in a restructure). But the big ones like guaranteed paid annual leave... they are so entrenched in the expectations of pretty much all workers that it would be suicide for any government to try to get rid of it.

What about the danger of the UK breaking up if a leave vote gives strength to the SNP above the border?


Funnily enough, the polls north of the border show a larger lead for Brexit than they do in England! The SNP threats are not credible. I suspect they would lose if they implemented a second indy referendum
Original post by Daddy Longlegz
London houseprices fall by 40%

Foreign investment leaves the city

Worker protection laws are repealed


It's absolutely terrifying.


1. Is a good thing. Most people cant afford a home in London even in their wildest dreams

2. Credit rating agencies (who are much smarter) than anyone of us on here have said that any capital flight will likely be temporary and they expect UK economy to stabilise & recover within 2-3 years

3. Please elaborate

SIZE=1]Posted from TSR Mobile
Original post by Esoteric.


3. Please elaborate



Our Pharaoh friend has addressed this, but I was concerned for example that the EU working time directive would no longer apply and now the poorest people have to work 70 hour weeks just to stay alive.

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