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Latest YouGov polls - Remain back in lead by 1%

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The average of ICM, Comres and Ipsois (what i view as the best pollsters) was 48-44 for Leave and so i placed my bet on Leave. For remain to win the DK must break for them by at least 3 to 1 which i think is too much.
I know they (the various polling organisations) have done a lot of work since the last General to make these polls as accurate as possible, but still can't help feeling like they're licking their fingers and holding them up in the air to see which way the wind's blowing.

Large pinch of salt needed with them all, I feel.
Original post by offhegoes
I just don't understand - you have a concern about some of the statistics used and your first thought is to question rather than to, you know, take 30 seconds to read a paragraph?

Anyway, can you share a link to a polling average showing a leave lead? Not necessarily doubting, but would like to take a look at the process.


Leave have had an average poll lead (increasing) for the past 3 weeks whether you include all, online or telephone.

The movement to remain was only in the polls released on Saturday.
Original post by Drewski
I know they (the various polling organisations) have done a lot of work since the last General to make these polls as accurate as possible, but still can't help feeling like they're licking their fingers and holding them up in the air to see which way the wind's blowing.

Large pinch of salt needed with them all, I feel.


May demonstrated their algorithms may well be much better, with the polls all being within margin of error for both Scotland and wales, except for with ukip, would imply their weightings are more or less right now.

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Reply 44
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Kitta
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Polls can never account for the silent majority, shown by the last general election. Immigration has been a sticky issue, and so has the economy. The newspapers are evenly split between sides, the economists all back remain - but are the public listening to them? I've never seen such a divisive referendum in my life time, even within families people tend to disagree with each other.

Whilst i think the wind has been taken out of the momentum of the leave campaign after the tragic death of Jo Cox, I don't think the british public are that whimsical, and if you were going to vote leave before then you would afterwards. It's the undecideds it might affect which do hold the key to this referendum I feel. I'm a pro-brexiteer myself - but I acknowledge the pros of the EU too and I'm not too concerned if we stay (which is probably the more likely result).
Reply 45
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slaven
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Original post by jneill
Go on then, you do a complete list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016#Leave

Also, the person who are favor in staying in the EU are among other Angela Merkel, Silvio Berlusconi, current Swedish PM.... not quite the best person to be proud of.

Look who support the leaving from the EU:
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Q_m4p6sesCU/maxresdefault.jpg
Add to this Viktor Orban, and the polish government yet for diplomatic reasons they are not allowed to say it publicly.
Original post by physicsphysics91
If you sort the compassionate side and I sort the money side we could really work out you know.


"I've got the morals, you've got the cynicism, let's make lots of money".

That kind of thing?
Reply 47
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slaven
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Original post by IFoundWonderland
China is not an emerging economy really. Indeed, their economy is beginning to stagnate (growth fell for the first time this year). Widespread wealth and lifestyle disparities in China totally limit their ability to grow; it'll catch up on them, as well as the impacts the one-child policy will have when the older generation dies.We should be considering the global economy and countries in other places, for example, South America. I cannot understand why debates regarding trade have wholly been isolated to China and India.


China is currently the biggest economy on the world, and despite their current stagnation they will remain so for another few decades.

The EU is on other hand stagnating for years now. Europe is thanks to the EU one of the sick man of the world.
Because of its protectionis policies UK is not able to make trading deals with China or other parts of the world.
Original post by slaven
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endorsements_in_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016#Leave

Also, the person who are favor in staying in the EU are among other Angela Merkel, Silvio Berlusconi, current Swedish PM.... not quite the best person to be proud of.

Look who support the leaving from the EU:
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Q_m4p6sesCU/maxresdefault.jpg
Add to this Viktor Orban, and the polish government yet for diplomatic reasons they are not allowed to say it publicly.


It's very interesting looking at the business leaders section on that page - basically a list of major tax evaders / offshored / nondoms. Many don't officially reside in the UK, at least according to their sweetheart deals with the ever-helpful-to-oligarchs HMRC. :rolleyes:
Reply 49
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slaven
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Original post by Fullofsurprises
It's very interesting looking at the business leaders section on that page - basically a list of major tax evaders / offshored / nondoms. Many don't officially reside in the UK, at least according to their sweetheart deals with the ever-helpful-to-oligarchs HMRC. :rolleyes:


Some concrete individuals please? There are also many suspicious bussiness people on your side.
Original post by jneill


Lol the express :awesome:. you have to admit that's somewhat based on speculation. Both Remain and the Leave side have speculated and hypothesised future terrorism activities to further their cause.

What I really found interesting is that apparently ISIS thinks the EU is the successor to the Roman Empire (straight out of Boris' book). It does make IS look like a bunch of history fanatics who are just carrying out a role-playing of events on 7th century Arabia. "Right, you pretend to be the Roman Empire, and I'll pretend to be early Islamic conquests and we'll act all this out..."

Original post by jneill
PS. Did the red underlining help you figure that out? :wink:


Unfounded speculation! :colonhash:

Original post by slaven
After closer inspecting the list I have doubt on this. Many important persons who support the Leave are not include, like some members of the current UK cabinet. As well the former MI6 chief who said UK is more securer outside of Europe.

The list also does not include many popular politiians from the EU who supports Brexit.


Its obvious that the document was cherry picked by a person with an agenda.

Original post by slaven
Also, some are dubious like V. Putin or Al-Baghdadi (LOL).


The author probably thought of three very (or the most) unpopular people and thought "yup. that's seems right".

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(edited 7 years ago)
Reply 51
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slaven
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Original post by chemting
The author probably thought of three very (or the most) unpopular people and thought "yup. that's seems right".

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I agree though I would not say V. Putin is a unpopular figure. It would actually help the leaving campaign if he actually did endorse them.
Original post by chemting
Lol the express :awesome:. you have to admit that's somewhat based on speculation. Both Remain and the Leave side have speculated and hypothesised future terrorism activities to further their cause.

What I really found interesting is that apparently ISIS thinks the EU is the successor to the Roman Empire (straight out of Boris' book). It does make IS look like a bunch of history fanatics who are just carrying out a role-playing of events on 7th century Arabia. "Right, you pretend to be the Roman Empire, and I'll pretend to be early Islamic conquests and we'll act all this out..."



Unfounded speculation! :colonhash:



Its obvious that the document was cherry picked by a person with an agenda.



The author probably thought of three very (or the most) unpopular people and thought "yup. that's seems right".

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I think the Al-Baghdadi thing comes from a quote by Dave.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/17/isis-leader-probably-in-favour-of-britain-leaving-eu-says-david-cameron
Reply 53
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Doones
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Original post by chemting
Lol the express :awesome:. you have to admit that's somewhat based on speculation.


But the Express is very much pro-Leave. So it's not in their interests to whip up unrest among its readership... oh wait... :wink:
It's in the declining smaller Northern Labour heartlands (Yorkshire, NE Lincs, etc) which I worry about the most. The historically white working class areas which also historically have lower immigration, but seem to be the most fearful of it and the most disillusioned (especially with Labour).

I still reckon Remain will get the majority. The confused and people unsure how to vote will generally go in favor of the choice with the less risk.
Reply 55
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Doones
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And for those new to the discussion, China has said they would prefer to see the UK Remain.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-china-idUKKCN0VV0MF

Also China is no special friend of the UK. We have previous... a small event called the Opium Wars. Still a rather sore point for China.

http://www.historyextra.com/facts/nutshell-opium-wars

In the event of a Leave, I'm sure China would still actively trade with a non-EU UK, but only on their own terms.
Original post by slaven
China is currently the biggest economy on the world, and despite their current stagnation they will remain so for another few decades.

The EU is on other hand stagnating for years now. Europe is thanks to the EU one of the sick man of the world.
Because of its protectionis policies UK is not able to make trading deals with China or other parts of the world.


Actually the US is still the world's largest economy. Otherwise agree with your points
Original post by sebby491
Actually the US is still the world's largest economy. Otherwise agree with your points


Depends who you listen to and whether you go nominal or PPP

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Original post by jneill
And for those new to the discussion, China has said they would prefer to see the UK Remain.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-china-idUKKCN0VV0MF

Also China is no special friend of the UK. We have previous... a small event called the Opium Wars. Still a rather sore point for China.

http://www.historyextra.com/facts/nutshell-opium-wars

In the event of a Leave, I'm sure China would still actively trade with a non-EU UK, but only on their own terms.


We also had these thongs called the world wars with the Germans, the revolutionary war with the Americans and were at war with the French on and off (mostly on) for the beat part of a century, so I'm not quite sure what the opium wars have to do with this.

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Reply 59
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Doones
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Original post by Jammy Duel
We also had these thongs called the world wars with the Germans, the revolutionary war with the Americans and were at war with the French on and off (mostly on) for the beat part of a century, so I'm not quite sure what the opium wars have to do with this.

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I think you are being naïve if you don't believe it's still somewhat an issue, especially for the Chinese. It might not directly affect things but it certainly informs their decision making.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-33020110

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