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Latest YouGov polls - Remain back in lead by 1%

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I expect most polls over-represent the Leave vote tbh.

Most of what I see points towards Leave voters being much more active with their campaigning - and I expect would be much more likely to actively partake in internet polls. I'm calling a much greater representation for Remain on the 23rd.
Original post by Jammy Duel
Depends who you listen to and whether you go nominal or PPP

Posted from TSR Mobile


Pretty much a consensus, stop being awkward. The US is also by far the most powerful country.
Martin Fletcher, former Times foreign correspondent, on how Boris's lies and distortions have created the EU myths now peddled by the Leave campaign.

"Appalled as I am at the prospect of my country voting to leave the European Union next week, I am hardly surprised.For 25 years our press has fed the British public a diet of distorted, mendacious and relentlessly hostile stories about the EU - and the journalist who set the tone was Boris Johnson.I know this because I was appointed Brussels correspondent of The Times in 1999, a few years after Johnson’s stint there for The Telegraph, and I had to live with the consequences.

Johnson, sacked by The Times in 1988 for fabricating a quote, made his mark in Brussels not through fair and balanced reporting, but through extreme euro-scepticism. He seized every chance to mock or denigrate the EU, filing stories that were undoubtedly colourful but also grotesquely exaggerated or completely untrue.The Telegraph loved it. So did the Tory Right.

Johnson later confessed: “Everything I wrote from Brussels, I found was sort of chucking these rocks over the garden wall and I listened to this amazing crash from the greenhouse next door over in England as everything I wrote from Brussels was having this amazing, explosive effect on the Tory party, and it really gave me this I suppose rather weird sense of power."Johnson’s reports also had an amazing, explosive effect on the rest of Fleet Street. They were much more fun than the usual dry and rather complex Brussels fare. News editors on other papers, particularly but not exclusively the tabloids, started pressing their own correspondents to match them. By the time I arrived in Brussels editors only wanted stories about faceless Brussels eurocrats imposing absurd rules on Britain, or scheming Europeans ganging up on us, or British prime ministers fighting plucky rearguard actions against a hostile continent. Much of Fleet Street seemed unable to view the EU through any other prism. It was the only narrative it was interested in.

Stories that did not bash Brussels, stories that acknowledged the EU’s many achievements, stories that recognised that Britain had many natural allies in Europe and often won important arguments, almost invariably ended up on the spike.Boris Johnson is now campaigning against the cartoon caricature of the EU that he himself created. He is campaigning against a largely fictional EU that bears no relation to reality. That is why he and his fellow Brexiteers could win next week. Johnson may be witty and amusing, just as Donald Rumsfeld was in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq, but he is extremely dangerous. What began as a bit of a jape could inflict terrible damage on this country.Fight back!!!!!!"

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/20/eu-referendum-live-warsi-leave-parliament-recalled-jo-cox
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by jneill
I think you are being naïve if you don't believe it's still somewhat an issue, especially for the Chinese. It might not directly affect things but it certainly informs their decision making.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-33020110


You're saying that things are bad with China because of two minor conflicts over 7 years in total a century and a half ago? And we get on with the Germans despite two of the most costly wars ever less than half as long ago? We get on with the French despite far more costly wars ending not much longer ago? Or the Americans despite similarly costly wars for the same reasons, again, not long before.

And the article you cite in effect says the main issues now are human rights disagreements, not two small conflicts nearly two centuries ago.

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Original post by sebby491
Pretty much a consensus, stop being awkward. The US is also by far the most powerful country.


Indeed, consensus that PPP is the better metric and China beats the US there

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Reply 65
Avatar for Doones
Doones
21
Original post by Jammy Duel
You're saying that things are bad with China because of two minor conflicts over 7 years in total a century and a half ago? And we get on with the Germans despite two of the most costly wars ever less than half as long ago? We get on with the French despite far more costly wars ending not much longer ago? Or the Americans despite similarly costly wars for the same reasons, again, not long before.

And the article you cite in effect says the main issues now are human rights disagreements, not two small conflicts nearly two centuries ago.

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I'm not saying things are "bad". I'm saying things are, and will be, complicated.

(The Chinese REALLY don't view them as "minor conflicts".)
Judging by this graphic:

1466419510971.jpg

A 1pc remain lead isn't enough to win and we're looking at maybe a 2-5% leave win

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Original post by slaven
It would actually help the leaving campaign if he actually did endorse them.


No way!
Original post by Alexion
I expect most polls over-represent the Leave vote tbh.

Most of what I see points towards Leave voters being much more active with their campaigning - and I expect would be much more likely to actively partake in internet polls. I'm calling a much greater representation for Remain on the 23rd.


I have always believed that the leave campaigners (in particular UKIP) have the biggest mouths and tend to be more active in trying to persuade people (on social media in particular), but at the end of all the campaigning it isn't necessarily the biggest mouth that wins.
Original post by jblackmoustache
I have always believed that the leave campaigners (in particular UKIP) have the biggest mouths and tend to be more active in trying to persuade people (on social media in particular), but at the end of all the campaigning it isn't necessarily the biggest mouth that wins.


The changers of the status quo always talk the loudest and almost every time have to do so to have any hope of winning.

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Original post by slaven
Many economist also said the Uk will develop new trading patterns if she leaves the EU. Liverpool was once the most important trading harbor for the UK, since the UK is in the EU it is destroyed.

So, Liverpool would become once more significant is the UK orientate its trading to China and other emerging markets.


China is the whole f*cking reason why Liverpool became insignificant. Yeah, that's right, scouses, your city is insignificant!
Reply 71
Avatar for Fenice
Fenice
9
Original post by Jammy Duel
Poorly. The weather forecasts are becoming more consistent with each other and with themselves over time, and the forecasts are for storms in key areas on the day, which means low turnout which is bad for remain, and the DKS are unlikely to break hard enough in favour of staying in that scenario.

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Original post by Fullofsurprises
Not sure about the weather thing. BBC Weather is currently showing London as sunshine and showers but quite warm and the Midlands and North of England similar. 18/20 degrees, light winds, showers.


I always feel like I'm reading the transcript to a Footlights sketch when people argue about how the weather will affect voter turnout at an election
Original post by jneill
I'm not saying things are "bad". I'm saying things are, and will be, complicated.

(The Chinese REALLY don't view them as "minor conflicts".)


Is this all arbitrary?

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Original post by Fenice
I always feel like I'm reading the transcript to a Footlights sketch when people argue about how the weather will affect voter turnout at an election


It does though, the worse the weather the more committed the average voter is that votes

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Is it a phone or online poll?
You write terribly well for a 1-yr old. :clap2: Congratulations to your parents! :teehee:
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Fenice
I always feel like I'm reading the transcript to a Footlights sketch when people argue about how the weather will affect voter turnout at an election


"That's not a result, it's just a piece of gossip." :lol:



"This is largely as I predicted, except that the Silly Party won." :rofl:
(edited 7 years ago)
Reply 77
Avatar for EuanF
EuanF
2
Original post by Alexion
I expect most polls over-represent the Leave vote tbh.

Most of what I see points towards Leave voters being much more active with their campaigning - and I expect would be much more likely to actively partake in internet polls. I'm calling a much greater representation for Remain on the 23rd.


That's not how polls work...

The polling organisation contacts the voters, not the other way around.
Still think it's way too close to call, honestly not gonna hold out any expectations until the actual night.
Reply 79
Avatar for Doones
Doones
21
My regular odds tracker update:

Remain continues to shorten (look more likely).

Screen Shot 2016-06-20 at 21.26.56.jpg

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