Latest YouGov polls - Remain back in lead by 1%

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Surely they have far too much betting traffic for a few large bets to alter it much? The algorithms they use will just be responding to a big market of millions of transactions, so on some level, it does reflect sentiment.

The real question is whether the sentiment is right.

Most bets will be small, and I expect there may be weighting for larger bets, with traffic of I would guess only a few million a day at most I would have though a few massive bets could significantly change it, especially if there is expectation for a swing any way

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Reply 102

Jammy Duel

Original post by Architecture-er

I always heard polls have a wriggle of +-5% anyway so I'm not going to get too happy.. it's damned too close for comfort either way

Each figure will have a margin of error of 2 or 3% yeah

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Reply 103

The Remain campaign has generally been...

Honest: 22%
Dishonest: 46%

Positive: 16%
Negative: 58%

(via YouGov)

The Leave campaign has generally been...

Honest: 26%
Dishonest: 43%

Positive: 27%
Negative: 46%

(via YouGov)

Reply 104

username2659199

14

Leave is back ahead by 2% from latest yougov survey - 42% remain 44% leave 13% don't know.

Looks like their lead was shortlived

Reply 105

Original post by Proximo

Leave is back ahead by 2% from latest yougov survey - 42% remain 44% leave 13% don't know.

Looks like their lead was shortlived

I don't think it is statistically significant because of margin of error

Reply 106

Fullofsurprises

OP

20

Original post by Jammy Duel

Most bets will be small, and I expect there may be weighting for larger bets, with traffic of I would guess only a few million a day at most I would have though a few massive bets could significantly change it, especially if there is expectation for a swing any way

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I don't think you know. You're just guessing.

Reply 107

physicsphysics91

3

Original post by Fullofsurprises

"I've got the morals, you've got the cynicism, let's make lots of money".

That kind of thing?

Thats fine by me.

Reply 108

Survation poll for IG at 13:30 here: http://www.ig.com/uk/live-video

Last survation poll had 3% lead for remain

I reckon if Remain has 4% lead or more than it's game over for leave campaign.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 109

51%-49% exc dks to remain, game on boys!

Reply 110

Rakas21

Original post by Sun_Bear

51%-49% exc dks to remain, game on boys!

You shold ignore polls that exclude the DK vote, pollsters worth their salt already apply turnout filters.

Thank god though, it does seem like it was a brief emotive boost for Remain with survation and Youguv both increasing the leave vote.

44-45 to remain from Survation today.

Reply 111

Original post by Rakas21

You shold ignore polls that exclude the DK vote, pollsters worth their salt already apply turnout filters.

Thank god though, it does seem like it was a brief emotive boost for Remain with survation and Youguv both increasing the leave vote.

44-45 to remain from Survation today.

If anything it's the other way around. Look at election analysts on twitter and poll of polls from say the times and they all use results that have dks excluded.

Edit: all pollsters release results showing results with and without dks

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 112

Fullofsurprises

OP

20

Original post by Rakas21

You shold ignore polls that exclude the DK vote, pollsters worth their salt already apply turnout filters.

Thank god though, it does seem like it was a brief emotive boost for Remain with survation and Youguv both increasing the leave vote.

44-45 to remain from Survation today.

I suspect these figures mean that Remain is on the straight path to victory. Internet and phone polls tend systematically to under-report various groups, particularly young people and pensioners. Anyway, we will see soon, but I suspect the underlying figures are something like 54:46 Remain or similar.

Reply 113

Rakas21

Original post by Fullofsurprises

I suspect these figures mean that Remain is on the straight path to victory. Internet and phone polls tend systematically to under-report various groups, particularly young people and pensioners. Anyway, we will see soon, but I suspect the underlying figures are something like 54:46 Remain or similar.

That's because they assume that young people won't bother as much and pensioners are massively leave.

Both polls would give remain the win once DK breaks on the day, Leave to win either need to be around 48% or have a large lead. I suspect though that polling will move back towards last weeks polling which had Leave by the line though.

My instincts said it would be remain by 53% but polling in recent weeks has only gone one way until Saturday and even then Remain are polling only about 45%.

Reply 114

Original post by Fullofsurprises

I suspect these figures mean that Remain is on the straight path to victory. Internet and phone polls tend systematically to under-report various groups, particularly young people and pensioners. Anyway, we will see soon, but I suspect the underlying figures are something like 54:46 Remain or similar.

That's just not what the professional polling companies have been telling us. In the past week some pollsters have had to adjust their polling methods as they have officially announced that they have been over representing graduates. The polls released today and yesterday have shown everything but a straight line to victory for remain. The CEO of survation just said how it was 50-50 and it was 8 people in the suvation poll out of a sample of 800 which made the difference.

Reply 115

Doones