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If we were to leave the EU, do you think the EU would start a trade war?

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The EU has the lowest growth of any continent and is constantly on the brink of recession with its fractional sluggish growth each year.


There's just no way the EU is going to choose to go into recession just to make a point.


No, no, the form will be to pretend everything is completely unaffected and that the EU is still very stable. The EU must go on!
Original post by Blimey1000
if the GBP drop, it will help export ...i.e we will earn more money.


Yes but imports become more expensive and the UK has a trade deficit so prices would rise.
Original post by JamesN88
Yes but imports become more expensive and the UK has a trade deficit so prices would rise.


So we import less (less of our money goes out) and export more (more money will come in) ...i.e. we'll have more money.
Summary of the video above. There are 3 options:

1) Access to the Single market through EFTA like Norway. You still pay and it requires Freedom of Movement. The difference is that you have no vote.

2) Trade with a new agreement with the EU. That will take on average around 10 years to implement.

3) Trade through the WTO with tariffs.

Magical Brexit 4th Option

4) EU gives the UK Free trade without Free movement. Therefore, making the EU completely redundant as a concept. It isn't going to happen.
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Blimey1000
So we import less (less of our money goes out) and export more (more money will come in) ...i.e. we'll have more money.


But we'll need to keep importing goods at the current rate since we don't have a large enough manufacturing sector.
Original post by JamesN88
But we'll need to keep importing goods at the current rate since we don't have a large enough manufacturing sector.



Not really... do we really need a BMW over a Ford? i.e the consumer is price sensitive and will buy cheaper substitute.
To answer the OP they won't start a trade war as it's in nobody's interest, however any idea of special treatment after leaving is a fantasy.

A fact that seems lost on some people is that the EU accounts for 45% of our exports and we account for 7% of theirs. Our economy is also 80% services and the single market allows free movement of services which is why we need to retain access to it.
Original post by Blimey1000
Not really... do we really need a BMW over a Ford? i.e the consumer is price sensitive and will buy cheaper substitute.


I don't mean cars specifically. Look at the labels on any manufactured goods and the majority of them come from outside the UK.

We also rely on food imports which a weak pound increases the price of.
Original post by JamesN88
I don't mean cars specifically. Look at the labels on any manufactured goods and the majority of them come from outside the UK.

We also rely on food imports which a weak pound increases the price of.


Yes they do indeed, especially labels from China, India etc. The EU put tariff on Chinese, US, Indian, Canadian goods...

So if we are out, ironically good from these countries can be cheaper, we can have no tariff on them. We can import from the rest of the world, not just EU.... including food.

My point is we can substitute goods.
(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by Blimey1000
Yes they do, especially China, India etc. The EU put tariff on Chinese, US, Indian, Canadian goods...

So if we are out, ironically good from these countries can be cheaper, we can have no tariff on them. We can import from the rest of the world, not just EU.... including food.

My point is we can substitute goods.


You said we could simply stop importing and export instead as if it was that simple.

We already import from the rest of the world. The EU has 50+ trade deals with non-EU nations and many more in the pipeline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

http://news.cbi.org.uk/business-issues/uk-and-the-european-union/eu-business-facts/10-facts-about-eu-trade-deals-pdf/
Original post by JamesN88
You said we could simply stop importing and export instead as if it was that simple.

We already import from the rest of the world. The EU has 50+ trade deals with non-EU nations and many more in the pipeline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_free_trade_agreements

http://news.cbi.org.uk/business-issues/uk-and-the-european-union/eu-business-facts/10-facts-about-eu-trade-deals-pdf/


I never said we should stop importing or exporting... i'm saying we can import/export more from other non-EU countries, not just the EU.

And yes, it is pretty simple to buy cheaper from other non-EU countries when we can decide for ourselves, when we take back control.

What is it so complex about buying from the US, Canada etc? You think they won't sell to us?
(edited 7 years ago)
Reply 31
Avatar for Josb
Josb
6
Original post by DorianGrayism
Summary of the video above. There are 3 options:

1) Access to the Single market through EFTA like Norway. You still pay and it requires Freedom of Movement. The difference is that you have no vote.

2) Trade with a new agreement with the EU. That will take on average around 10 years to implement.

3) Trade through the WTO with tariffs.

Magical Brexit 4th Option

4) EU gives the UK Free trade without Free movement. Therefore, making the EU completely redundant as a concept. It isn't going to happen.


On 2), he said "based on previous experiences of this type of agreement" it would take ten years to negotiate a new treaty. However, the situation of a country leaving the EU has never occurred. Negotiations are usually long because both parties have to harmonise their legislation - a very long process -, but in the case of Brexit, most laws are already the same between the UK and the rest of the EU.
What's the use in speculating, let's find out for real
Reply 33
Avatar for Josb
Josb
6
Original post by Blimey1000
I never said we should stop importing or exporting... i'm saying we can import/export more from other non-EU countries, not just the EU.

And yes, it is pretty simple to buy cheaper from other non-EU countries when we can decide for ourselves, when we take back control.

What is so complex about buying from the US, Canada etc? You think they won't sell to us?


Original post by Blimey1000
So we import less (less of our money goes out) and export more (more money will come in) ...i.e. we'll have more money.


This plan cannot work if the UK faces tariffs to enter the market of countries that were previously free of charge under EU trade agreements.

Certainly, the USA, Canada, Autralasia, etc. can be accommodating with an ally, but a country like China can demand a lot from the UK as they would be in dominant position.
Original post by Josb
On 2), he said "based on previous experiences of this type of agreement" it would take ten years to negotiate a new treaty. However, the situation of a country leaving the EU has never occurred. Negotiations are usually long because both parties have to harmonise their legislation - a very long process -, but in the case of Brexit, most laws are already the same between the UK and the rest of the EU.


Well, I think "harmonising laws" is an oversimplification.

The issue is that 2) requires a completely different set of agreements with regards to tariffs and etc, that will be similar to something that the Koreans have.

Now, it may not be as long as 10 years, but I don't see it happening that quickly either, especially if we are difficult on immigration.
Original post by Josb
This plan cannot work if the UK faces tariffs to enter the market of countries that were previously free of charge under EU trade agreements.

Certainly, the USA, Canada, Autralasia, etc. can be accommodating with an ally, but a country like China can demand a lot from the UK as they would be in dominant position.


Well, if we have control back, that'll be down to OUR negotiation skill, not rely on EU who has a different agenda.

The world is bigger than the EU.
Reply 36
Avatar for Josb
Josb
6
Original post by Blimey1000
Well, if we have control back, that'll be down to OUR negotiation skill, not rely on EU who has a different agenda.

The world is bigger than the EU.


But the UK is smaller than the EU...
Original post by Josb
But the UK is smaller than the EU...


Yes, which makes us more nimble and decisive ... we don't have to contend with, or be bog down with protecting French wine, cheese, Italian shoes etc etc (as the EU have to) in our trade negotiation.
Original post by DorianGrayism
Summary of the video above. There are 3 options:

1) Access to the Single market through EFTA like Norway. You still pay and it requires Freedom of Movement. The difference is that you have no vote.

2) Trade with a new agreement with the EU. That will take on average around 10 years to implement.

3) Trade through the WTO with tariffs.

Magical Brexit 4th Option

4) EU gives the UK Free trade without Free movement. Therefore, making the EU completely redundant as a concept. It isn't going to happen.


I don't see the problems with tariffs, providing they're not high.

Then if they place a high tariff, we just raise ours until they lower theirs to a more suitable level.

Posted from TSR Mobile
Trade war? You mean EU will create mutual tariffs or similar barriers to trade if UK leaves? Surely EU will. Why? If partnership doesn't exist,then competitors will come into being. That's a rule of trading.

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Posted from TSR Mobile

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