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Latest YouGov polls - Remain back in lead by 1%

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Original post by MrControversial
Funny you bring up such a thing when we have no proportional representation.

Also funny that it's all about economics for you. Personally, I wont be bribed to sell our independence tomorrow.


So you prefer Farage's "vote with your heart!"... the unsaid bit being "not with your head". Fair enough if that floats your boat.

For something as important as this I'll go with my head.
All polls on 2nd were very close bar one.

ComRes conducted an online poll (which general favour leave) and the result was 48% remain and 41% leave with 11% undecided
Reply 202
Original post by Tempest II
Despite being a Leave voter, I just can't see the UK voting for exit from the EU. It'll be tight, no doubt about it. But I do think that there's too much fear of the unknown (I don't blame either Remain or Leave for that; no-one can predict the future all that well) & I see the status quo holding.

In terms of best case scenarios that I personally would like:
1. The UK leaving & setting up a free trade deal with the EU & other nations while being burdened with less regulation/less loss of sovereignty.

Or

2. Due to the close result & demand from other EU nations for referendums, the EU agrees to reforms that move it back towards a Free Trade Bloc rather than a quasi political-judicial-economic organisation.

I think the vote will be 52% Remain, 48% Leave.



Good post. I very much believe we should stay a member of the EU, but I can honestly say option two would be an ideal outcome from my perspective. I wonder just how many remain voters feel the same.
Original post by jneill
So on this contention that the UK has such a small share of votes in the EU that it's not worth having it, and therefore the UK is better off out...

Let's do a little scenario; let's just say the UK remains in the EU. And a few years down the line there's a potential far-right (or far left, it doesn't matter) takeover of the EU with some countries already under extreme governments.

Now consider what happens when a potentially very contentious vote arises. Noting that for whatever reason we can't use our veto for some reason.

The voting blocks across other countries are evenly matched.

The vote is standing at 46% moderate - they want to maintain the status quo.
Versus 47% extremist - they want to impose this significant change. A change that would fundamentally change the way the EU operates. Potentially with huge socio-political and economic effects. So it looks like the extremists have the majority. They are 1% ahead.

But the UK is sitting there holding a small vote. It's not much but it's the remaining 7%.

Kapoow! They exercise their 7% and save the day for the moderates.

Hmmm, a bit like the Referendum perhaps. I'm pretty sure either Remain or Leave would be extremely pleased to have a 7% block on their side tomorrow.

Don't ya think...

Vote Leave if you want to have no influence over the future direction of the EU.
Or Vote REMAIN. And continue to play your part in the future.


The problem with this argument is that it assumes all MEPs will vote the same way, which they won't, labour will vote the most left wing way, ukip the most right wing eurosceptic way, the Tories mostly the right wing way, and who cares about the lib dems?

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Original post by Jammy Duel
The problem with this argument is that it assumes all MEPs will vote the same way, which they won't, labour will vote the most left wing way, ukip the most right wing eurosceptic way, the Tories mostly the right wing way, and who cares about the lib dems?

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Get a grip, seriously.
Labour won't vote with the far-left
Tories won't vote far-right
ComRes for the Daily Mail and ITV showing a 6% lead for Remain last night.
Original post by Aj12
Good post. I very much believe we should stay a member of the EU, but I can honestly say option two would be an ideal outcome from my perspective. I wonder just how many remain voters feel the same.


Lots probably - there's plenty about the EU that is far from satisfactory. The issue is about the best way forwards - staying in and trying to apply steady pressure to reform those things, or throwing our toys out of the pram.

That said, the potential for major negatives against the UK from things like the Euro are less anyway, in or out, as we are not in the Eurozone. The other big hate / gripe of the Brexiteers, immigration, is not going to be a very different issue if we are out, because of the need to continue to trade with EU states and for our citizens to continue to enjoy the free movement that we currently do on a large scale.
Original post by Aj12
Good post. I very much believe we should stay a member of the EU, but I can honestly say option two would be an ideal outcome from my perspective. I wonder just how many remain voters feel the same.


Option 2 will never happen and if you want it you should really vote to leave and push for EFTA.
Original post by Bornblue
Another brexiter with a victim mentality who thinks the vote will be rigged.
Pathetic. Grow up.
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I merely posted an apposite quotation on the subject of vote rigging. I did not opine that the vote will be rigged. I love being told by someone younger than my own children to grow up.
Reply 209
Original post by Rakas21
Option 2 will never happen and if you want it you should really vote to leave and push for EFTA.


I doubt it'd happen. I vaguely remember a year or to ago something about EFTA being unlikely to take any new members on.
Original post by Aj12
I doubt it'd happen. I vaguely remember a year or to ago something about EFTA being unlikely to take any new members on.


There's always posturing from both sides, just as the UK will posture and threaten to leave the single market if it has to take EU immigrants however i expect in the end both sides will calm and we'll get EFTA or something like it. People like Boris don't have the resolve to take us out completely (hell, it'd not shock me if he calls a second referendum) and Germany until we actually leave has the stronger hand. Our opponents are probably France and Italy, they are both protectionist and stand to gain politically provided the National Front can be defeated.

A lot of people seem to think Europe will be angry and vindictive, i've never bought this argument. Foreign relations is about self interest rather than emotion.
Original post by Good bloke
I merely posted an apposite quotation on the subject of vote rigging. I did not opine that the vote will be rigged. I love being told by someone younger than my own children to grow up.


If anyone thinks or implies that the vote will in any way be rigged, suffers from paranoia and a victim mentality and really needs to grow up.
Original post by Bornblue
If anyone thinks or implies that the vote will in any way be rigged, suffers from paranoia and a victim mentality and really needs to grow up.


Are you going to finish that sentence?

I have not thought, stated or implied that the vote will be rigged. I have posted an amusing quotation from Stalin (or are you completely humourless in your zealous quest to impose your views?)
Reply 213
Original post by Rakas21
There's always posturing from both sides, just as the UK will posture and threaten to leave the single market if it has to take EU immigrants however i expect in the end both sides will calm and we'll get EFTA or something like it. People like Boris don't have the resolve to take us out completely (hell, it'd not shock me if he calls a second referendum) and Germany until we actually leave has the stronger hand. Our opponents are probably France and Italy, they are both protectionist and stand to gain politically provided the National Front can be defeated.

A lot of people seem to think Europe will be angry and vindictive, i've never bought this argument. Foreign relations is about self interest rather than emotion.


You are certainly correct about self interest trumping emotion. The question becomes which is the greater interest, economic agreement with the UK or sending a strong message about the unity of the EU? I honestly think parts of the EU will go to great effort to make things difficult for the UK to try and head off eurosceptic movements in various nations. The EU simply cannot afford leaving to be seen as a viable option.
Original post by Good bloke
Are you going to finish that sentence?

I have not thought, stated or implied that the vote will be rigged. I have posted an amusing quotation from Stalin (or are you completely humourless in your zealous quest to impose your views?)


28% of leave voters think the vote will be rigged. Sums them up.

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Original post by Bornblue
28% of leave voters think the vote will be rigged. Sums them up.


So you like stereotyping all leave voters from a minority, even though your own evidence suggest three-quarters of them disagree? Do you do that on all matters for debate? Are all Moslems terrorists? Are all left-wingers violent extremists? Are all Americans obese and stupid?
Original post by Aj12
I doubt it'd happen. I vaguely remember a year or to ago something about EFTA being unlikely to take any new members on.


Also does the UK, one of the largest economic powers in the world and a large player in many other spheres really want to be marginalised to poor little EFTA?

It's like suggesting California break away from the US and join the Caribbean Economic Community.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
ComRes for the Daily Mail and ITV showing a 6% lead for Remain last night.


It's worth noting the comres has consistently overstated remain compared to all the others

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Just voted remain and was exit-polled as well. Was so tempted to tell them I voted leave just to shake it up a bit.
Original post by scriggy
Just voted remain and was exit-polled as well. Was so tempted to tell them I voted leave just to shake it up a bit.


It's only a hedge fund, it's not an official exit poll that broadcasters and papers will be using.

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