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Latest YouGov polls - Remain back in lead by 1%

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Original post by Jammy Duel
It's only a hedge fund, it's not an official exit poll that broadcasters and papers will be using.

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Aww. How do you know that? Do they not do the official exit polls at polling stations?
Original post by scriggy
Aww. How do you know that? Do they not do the official exit polls at polling stations?


Not for referendums, nobody knows where or what to be checking, especially given how close it will be

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(edited 7 years ago)
Original post by scriggy
Aww. How do you know that? Do they not do the official exit polls at polling stations?


There are no official exit polls. Anyone conducting one is working for a polling organisation selling the results to the media or industry.
Original post by Jammy Duel
Not for referendums, nobody knows where or what to be checking, especially given how close it will be

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Original post by Good bloke
There are no official exit polls. Anyone conducting one is working for a polling organisation selling the results to the media or industry.


I see. Well in that case I wish I just did tell them the wrong thing.
Original post by scriggy
Just voted remain and was exit-polled as well. Was so tempted to tell them I voted leave just to shake it up a bit.


I suspect quite a few voters game pollsters like this now, people are very savvy to the system. Still, perhaps they cancel each other out.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
I suspect quite a few voters game pollsters like this now, people are very savvy to the system. Still, perhaps they cancel each other out.


I'm not sure they do for exit polls. They have been notably accurate over the years. Remember the reaction to the exit polls at the last general election? Nobody believed them, and people promised to eat hats if the exit poll was right. The poll was right and hats were served (but not eaten).
Original post by jneill
So you prefer Farage's "vote with your heart!"... the unsaid bit being "not with your head". Fair enough if that floats your boat.

For something as important as this I'll go with my head.


Funny you would say that because so far the remain campaign has had little to go on but love-dovey arguments for togetherness and about how the EU somehow prevents armageddon.
Original post by MrControversial
Funny you would say that because so far the remain campaign has had little to go on but love-dovey arguments for togetherness and about how the EU somehow prevents armageddon.


And over 1,000 "Nazi" experts with all their facts and figures and economic models.

Awkward that.
The bookies now have Remain at the highest likelihood (83%) since they started offering odds.

Screen Shot 2016-06-23 at 11.52.22.jpg

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-barely-likely-remain-say-bookies/
Original post by jneill
And over 1,000 "Nazi" experts with all their facts and figures and economic models.

Awkward that.


This is a political decision. There are no experts. And you should know better than to to fall into the logical fallacy of the appeal to authority anyway.
Original post by jneill
And over 1,000 "Nazi" experts with all their facts and figures and economic models.

Awkward that.


Some of the New Extreme Right are actually descended from Nazi leaders, at least in Germany. Quite troubling really.
Original post by Good bloke
This is a political decision. There are no experts. And you should know better than to to fall into the logical fallacy of the appeal to authority anyway.


Yes how stupid to appeal to the authority of experts and professionals. Better off appealing to the man down the pub eh?

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Original post by jneill
The bookies now have Remain at the highest likelihood (83%) since they started offering odds.

Screen Shot 2016-06-23 at 11.52.22.jpg

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-barely-likely-remain-say-bookies/


Bookies odds do no more than reflect the betting situation, which might even be caused by cynical leavers betting on the opposite so that they have some good news whichever way the poll goes, or by a very few very big bets in one direction or another.
Original post by Good bloke
This is a political decision. There are no experts. And you should know better than to to fall into the logical fallacy of the appeal to authority anyway.


It was in reply to post that said Remain has "little to go on but love-dovey arguments for togetherness".

And if it's a political decision, what about just leaving it to the democratically elected politicians we already have.

MPs Leave vs Remain.jpg
Original post by jneill
It was in reply to post that said Remain has "little to go on but love-dovey arguments for togetherness".

And if it's a political decision, what about just leaving it to the democratically elected politicians we already have.

MPs Leave vs Remain.jpg


Because by convention such major constitutional questions are put to the people

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Original post by jneill

And if it's a political decision, what about just leaving it to the democratically elected politicians we already have.


They are elected for general purposes. This is a specific single issue that transcends party lines.

In any event, the mere existence of the referendum confirms that remain-supporting politicians are being too pessimistic in their predictions of doom and gloom for exit.

If the result would be such a catastrophe, Mr Cameron, why did you place the country into the position of being on a knife-edge over falling into the abyss? You are either a liar or an utterly reckless PM.

I take the view that he is just a typical political liar.
Original post by Jammy Duel
Because by convention such major constitutional questions are put to the people

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No. It's because UKIP.
Original post by Good bloke
They are elected for general purposes. This is a specific single issue that transcends party lines.

In any event, the mere existence of the referendum confirms that remain-supporting politicians are being too pessimistic in their predictions of doom and gloom for exit.

If the result would be such a catastrophe, Mr Cameron, why did you place the country into the position of being on a knife-edge over falling into the abyss? You are either a liar or an utterly reckless PM.

I take the view that he is just a typical political liar.


I don't disagree... but he probably didn't have much choice.
Original post by jneill
I don't disagree... but he probably didn't have much choice.


He had every choice. He could have let UKIP campaign away and possibly get a few more seats and not added the promise to the manifesto.
Original post by jneill
No. It's because UKIP.


Without ukip there would be no decision being made, but because it does need making it pretty much has to utilise direct democracy

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