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Assad could be gone by Autumn as regime is collapsing?

Ambitious1999

President Assad could be out of power by Autumn as the regime faces massive defeats by the Daesh and Kurds.

The Kurds with any luck are close to removing all Daesh from Northern Syria cutting Daesh supply routes to Turkey and creating a free Kurdistan. This is good news. But...

However the Daesh are launching a massive offensive against regime and Russian forces after failed attempt to liberate Tabqa. Regime have lost 150 miles of territory and Daesh are close to invading regime city of Hama and moving towards Homs. They're less than 50 km from Damascus.

I think Assad has little choice but to flee Syria and head for Russia to avoid capture by the Daesh and a similar fate to Gaddafi.
Of course the west will be delighted at this outcome, having the Daesh remove Assad from power just as they were delighted at the fall of Gadaffi. :frown:

I think the SAA are war weary after 5 years of war and may well just surrender sooner or later, which is not a good thing as it creates more uncertainly of who replaces the regime in the south without a unified army to fight Jihadists.

Reply 1

shawn_o1

You think everyone's ignoring Syria because of Brexit hence the timing of your post. Either way it's all codswallop

Reply 2

Ambitious1999

Original post by shawn_o1

You think everyone's ignoring Syria because of Brexit hence the timing of your post. Either way it's all codswallop

Look for yourself at the 'Syria live maps'. See how the Kurds are winning in Northern Syria and how elsewhere Assad is facing major defeat against ISIS. There is a timeline, go back to June 20th 2016 when Assad forces were close to liberating Tabqa and compare with now, with ISIS close to invading Hama having invaded into 150 miles of regime territory.

It's all there, you just need to google 'Syria live maps' Key: Deash are in dark grey, Kurds in Yellow and regime in Red.

Reply 3

RF_PineMarten

Doubt it. Assad's government has survived through far worse things and at some points in the war it looked like the government would fall, only for the situation to then change completely. They've had setbacks recently (failed Tabqa offensive and rebel pressure south of Aleppo), but are not about to lose the war.

ISIS drove back the government offensive on Tabqa but they have not made any net gains. They've attacked the same area several times this year and been repelled every single time. They are nowhere near even threatening Homs or Hama, let alone taking any of them. The regime does have manpower problems but they are capable of holding on to those cities.

As for ISIS being close to Damascus, the only ISIS areas anywhere near Damascus are isolated pockets which are cut off from the main ISIS force, so it's not like they can launch large offensives like the rest of ISIS can. Damascus is not at risk.