Will the UK keep free movement?

orton6

Do you think the UK will keep free movement with the EU? I think if Theresa May becomes PM we will.

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Reply 1

MonsoonFlower

Original post by orton6

Do you think the UK will keep free movement with the EU? I think if Theresa May becomes PM we will.

We will need to wait until they actually trigger article 50 where such negotiations on what is the best deal for us on how to exit the EU have to be made.

Reply 2

Vav Sartrean Po

One can hope, not sure how Gove would respond to this - but Theresa May would allow it IMO

Reply 3

_Fergo

They have made it clear that it's either free movement and deal or no free movement and no deal (see also their response to Switzerland now).

Considering a free trade deal is a must, you know your answer.

Reply 4

L i b

Original post by *Stefan*

I still think we'd get a trade deal - the issue hinges on the single market however. There's a solid rationale behind the EU suggestion that free movement is an inherent part of the single market and cannot be divorced from it. Trade deals are less problematic - in that sense, we could take the Canada option.

I sincerely hope we maintain free movement as part of the single market, but I really struggle to see how we could achieve without being seen as a betrayal by the victorious Leave voters. Do not underestimate the sleeping giant that could be awoken by politicians ignoring that mandate. If you want to see Nigel Farage sweeping into Number 10, that's the way to go about it.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 5

Maker

The British people have to decide if the want prosperity or limits on immigration. IF it is the latter, many businesses will be forced to move some or all their operations to the EU followed by their employees.

IF there is no free movement, I think the people who have valuable and transferable skills and qualifications will move to the EU or elsewhere and leave behind a Britain in recession and probably in long term decline.

Reply 6

Sisuphos

Original post by L i b

Free trade in goods is not really the issue though. The UK economy is 79-80%? service-based and by far the highest value-added industry.

Reply 7

Sisuphos

You can't do that, the EU has a customs union. All EU members negotiate as one. It gives them infinitely greater bargaining power (tbh, that is one of the best reasons why the UK should remain in the EU).

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 8

Sisuphos

If you mean right now, the USA wouldn't even offer the UK a trade deal because it's still part of the EU.

If you mean post-Brexit, yeah it would. But I thought you were referring to the EU. I thought you said that it is better to negotiate trade deals with each individual EU member. One with Germany, a different one with France, etc.

Reply 9

Sisuphos

That's not possible. EU member states are not allowed to strike trade deals unilaterally. Hence TTIP. Hence Obama saying that post-Brexit, Britain would be on the back of the queue in trade negotiations (the US is far more interested in striking a deal with the entire EU than with the UK alone).

Reply 10

Llamageddon

I think it will exist in some form though probably not in the same way as now.*

Reply 11

scrotgrot

If we put freedom of movement ahead of single market membership then that is the end of Britain, guaranteed. A smaller, poorer, more insular and hateful country forevermore.

Even Switzerland which is not in the EEA is facing having its agreements with the EU, which took at least 10 years to strike, voided now the Swiss have voted 50.3 to 49.7 to restrict free movement - because it's a red line in the EU deal.

If we remain in the EEA (entailing freedom of movement) the situation and much of our economy can be salvaged.

Reply 12

Sisuphos

Original post by scrotgrot

The Swiss situation is a good example why the UK should not leave the EU to join the EEA. The Swiss will not get an exemption on free movement (although such a ridiculously close ref result doesn't really justify making it a big deal in the first place). The referendum was conducted more than 2 years ago and no deal has been or will be struck with free movement being ruled out. Minor concessions might be given but effectively, free movement will remain in place.

It will be stupid and incomprehensible for the UK to leave the EU, and relinquish whatever say it has, to join the EEA.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 13

username1022139

Original post by orton6

Do you think the UK will keep free movement with the EU? I think if Theresa May becomes PM we will.

I think given the size of the UK's economy, the EU will be open to making concessions regarding having access to the free market and the free movement of people. In any case, if you're worried about not being able to travel freely in Europe after Article 50 is complete, there's no reason why you can't apply for citizenship in countries like Ireland. I know it's more of a pain, but if free-travel to you is so important then it's a small compromise to make. Sadly, the majority of people voted leave to end the free movement of people as it was putting immense pressures on public services, housing and employment. I'd imagine such a move to allow the free movement of people from hereon in would lead to an outroar with the likes of UKIP.

Reply 14

scrotgrot

Original post by Sisuphos

In Switzerland referenda are implemented 2 years in arrears.

Switzerland is not a member of the EEA having rejected it in a binding referendum in 1992. That's why they had to spend the following 10 years in economic stagnation while they thrashed out bilateral agreements.

The EEA so far as I know comes prepackaged with full freedom of movement.

Reply 15

Maker

Original post by jake4198

The EU would be stupid to give the UK concessions because other countries like Switzerland and Norway will also demand them and there will be less money the EU can charge the UK for trading with it.

If the EU gives the UK a better deal than other EU countries, there will be no incentive for them to stay in the EU and pay their membership fees and implement EU law. The only way the EU will deal with the UK is to make it clear to other EU countries that being out of the EU will be worse than being in the EU.

Reply 16

TheIr0nDuke

Freedom of movement is a dealbreaker for many who voted to Leave. Immigration was one of the biggest issues, behind sovereignty.

No chance a PM could get away with allowing it.

Reply 17

Alfissti

Is access to the single market essential to trade with EU? Absolutely not. Personally if we didn't want EU membership then we shouldn't want access to the single market, it is ludicrous to get a deal which we pay more for less. It will be without a doubt that much of the regional funding for poorer regions, CAP payments and maybe even the rebates would no longer be on the table if it is a Norway style deal.

Travelling as a tourist? This shouldn't be an issue, nothing will change anyway since UK isn't part of the Schengen Agreement and it is unlikely those countries would require visas for UK nationals.

Reply 18

remiremi

The United Kingdom is not Norway and does not have a Norwegian import/export market.

We will get a British deal with the EU and it's up to our politicians what that turns out like. So frankly the future is unwritten.

Reply 19

orton6

Original post by Maker

Countries in the EU don't really have a high demand for people who only speak English. So unless these skilled people speak the language fluently (German, Swedish etc) those people with transferable skills will have a hard time finding jobs in other EU countries.

A lot of large companies will most likely relocate to other EU countries as it will be easier for them to trade with the rest of Europe, thus losing lots of jobs in the UK. The people who will move will most likely be CEOs and internet / tech entrepreneurs as they will prefer to have their companies in other EU countries