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Conservative Leadership Contest 2016 Official Thread

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It is suggested Theresa May could be crowned PM WITHIN DAYS

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-07-02/how-we-might-have-a-new-prime-minister-as-early-as-next-week/
Original post by hazzer1998


It would be possible after Thursday but with half of MP's not declared i don't buy it much.

Personally i hope it comes down to May, Gove and Crabb who can then slog it out.
Original post by Rakas21
It would be possible after Thursday but with half of MP's not declared i don't buy it much.

Personally i hope it comes down to May, Gove and Crabb who can then slog it out.


True , However on Tuesday 1 candidate is being voted out ( My bet is Fox ) Then on Thursday another Candidate ( Most likely Cabb ) Then it's done to Gove , May , Leadsom , ( Gove or Leadsom is voted out ) Leaving May and Leadsom or Gove , One may step down crowning the remaining candidate ( May ) PM ..... So it could happen within 2 weeks and also the fact may is Miles ahead with 10 times as much nominations then some candidates


[QUOTE]
60% of Tories apparently support May for the leadership. She also currently has 60% of declared MP's.
Which candidate do you think would win support in Labour heartlands? I'm thinking Leadsom...
Original post by jamestg
Which candidate do you think would win support in Labour heartlands? I'm thinking Leadsom...


Crabb if he goes for immigration restrictions. He has the narrative.
Original post by jamestg
Which candidate do you think would win support in Labour heartlands? I'm thinking Leadsom...


Gove.
Original post by jamestg
Which candidate do you think would win support in Labour heartlands? I'm thinking Leadsom...

None really. They still hate the tories passionately up there, they just also are now turning against Labour. Can only see UKIP gaining there, which I guess in and of itself would be good for the tories.
Original post by Rakas21
60% of Tories apparently support May for the leadership. She also currently has 60% of declared MP's.


The Tory party going full Labour :rofl: May is nothing more than a third-rate wannabe fascist, completely unelectable.
Original post by Gora The Xplorer
The Tory party going full Labour :rofl: May is nothing more than a third-rate wannabe fascist, completely unelectable.


May is pretty traditional but she's also fairly moderate on a lot of issues like the economy. I don't consider the comparison the same.
Current state of play shows steady progress for May, Gove and Leadsom (though the later two probably split votes) with Crabb and Fox dropping behind.

Our latest Conservative leadership election MP tally. May 104, Gove 25, Leadsom 25, Crabb 21, Fox 8.

Still over 100 yet to declare by Tuesday hopefully.
Tonight's update..

May 119, Leadsom 39, Gove 26, Crabb 22, Fox 7.

Movement then for May and Leadsom.

Probably worth saying that 110 MP's are still to declare and apparently at the MP hustings tonight, May and Gove did better than Leadsom.
First round is complete and we saw Fox eliminated with Crabb soon resigning and both endorsing May who got more than 50% of MP's in a field of five.

Current state of play then for Thursday is..

May: 165 (~51% i think)
Leadsom: 66
Gove: 48

Fox+CrabbL 50 (16+34)

Ignoring the possibility of defections we can expect that half of Fox and Crabb's support will probably head for May regardless of whether they really want her (she's won, people who want cabinet jobs tend to back the winner) so that leaves 8 and 17 MP's remaining. Fox probably gives more to Leadsom than Gove (let's say 6-2) but Crabb will give much more to Gove than Leadsom (her support among remainers is very low compared to Gove and May) so lets say 12-5. The overall result ends up with May 190, Leadsom on 77 and Gove on 62.

Three points to note..

1) Gove and Leadsom are splitting each others votes so defections are a possibility, especially since Leadsom apparently performs poorly at MP hustings.

2) May's camp considers Leadsom more of a threat among members because of the Boris attack, there's a suggestion that some MP's could vote tactically for Gove to ensure he faces her when it comes to the members.

3) If May gets more than 180 MP's in a field of three (~60% of vote) then it will be argued (credibly i think) that May's support is so overwhelming that the second place candidate should withdraw and she would then be declared Acting Prime Minister on Friday pending the membership voting for her over RON.

If i had the money spare i would strongly be putting money down on option 3, i think the odds of a coronation have increased significantly.

..

For amusement, Clarke was caught on camera evaluating the candidates with Rifkind..

[video="youtube;ipW1D2EyDbA"]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipW1D2EyDbA&feature=youtu.be[/video]
The Almanis giving May about a 40% chance of winning the leadership contest, with Leadsom also seemingly comprising most of the "other" likelihood of 35%: https://app.almanis.com/#/outcomes/473
May's chances probably higher than that but still uncertainty about what would happen in a vote
We now know Britain we have a 2nd Female Prime Minster , May Vs Leadsom .
So poor little Gove is out. RIP. :sad:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jul/07/gove-leadsom-tory-leadership-vote-final-two-politics-live

Angela Leadsom is not a name that runs off the tongue. :teehee: However, she has much to offer the really quite bonkers typical Tory member:

* Fox hunting - she wants it back.
* Trident - the more the merrier and sooner rather than later.
* The EU - she hates it and will destroy Britain as long as it means properly leaving, no 'staying in the single market' nonsense for Angela.
* National Minimum Wage - she wants that cancelled.
* EU subsidies to farmers - ah, she wants to keep those - the UK govt will meet the bill apparently - just as well, as most of the money goes to rich and powerful land owners like the owner and editor of the Daily Mail. :lol:

That's enough daffy Tory policies for now. More soon. :rolleyes:
Original post by hazzer1998
We now know Britain we have a 2nd Female Prime Minster , May Vs Leadsom .


If only the choice was something like Caroline Lucas or Angela Eagle. :sad:
Original post by Fullofsurprises
If only the choice was something like Caroline Lucas or Angela Eagle. :sad:


Or Jo Cox...

To provide some counter to May's **** the refugees position.
Original post by Fullofsurprises
If only the choice was something like Caroline Lucas or Angela Eagle. :sad:


Leadsom should pull out now , it's in the national interest
Original post by Fullofsurprises
So poor little Gove is out. RIP. :sad:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jul/07/gove-leadsom-tory-leadership-vote-final-two-politics-live

Angela Leadsom is not a name that runs off the tongue. :teehee: However, she has much to offer the really quite bonkers typical Tory member:

* Fox hunting - she wants it back.
* Trident - the more the merrier and sooner rather than later.
* The EU - she hates it and will destroy Britain as long as it means properly leaving, no 'staying in the single market' nonsense for Angela.
* National Minimum Wage - she wants that cancelled.
* EU subsidies to farmers - ah, she wants to keep those - the UK govt will meet the bill apparently - just as well, as most of the money goes to rich and powerful land owners like the owner and editor of the Daily Mail. :lol:

That's enough daffy Tory policies for now. More soon. :rolleyes:


Does she actually want the minimum wage gone?

Arghh. Dam farming subsidies. She's also (like May sadly) not a fan of austerity either.

Original post by hazzer1998
Leadsom should pull out now , it's in the national interest


I'd not go that far however May got 63% of MP's in a field of three. I'd not be surprised to see her withdraw.

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