Brexiteers: even in victory they can't get the figures straight

Mr Davis said he wanted to trigger Article 50 "early next year" and the timetable had to allow for the UK's "huge negotiation" and for International Trade Secretary Liam Fox to strike deals around the world.

He said: "We'll get a very, very, very large trade area, much, much bigger than the European Union. Probably 10 times the size, well I'm not going to set Liam targets, but a multiple of the size of the European Union. And the moment we leave, they'll all come in."

I'm not saying that trade area is a valid way to quantify trade, but for what he said he is statistically correct.

More smoke and mirrors from the Brexiteers. You don't even believe that's what he meant, so why even put up the argument.

More smoke and mirrors from the Brexiteers. You don't even believe that's what he meant, so why even put up the argument.

With your argument you are basically arguing that a valid way of defining the the EEA is by the land area, rather than by the countries involved, the populations, or dare I suggest it, the size of their overall economies?

So are you saying he meant something he didn't said? Or that he should've said something he didn't meant?

The only conclusion I can make so far that is factually correct, is that you have interpreted his statement wrong.

Also I did not state in what context I felt Mr Davis' comment meant, so here's another interpretation you have made wrong there.

With your argument you are basically arguing that a valid way of defining the the EEA is by the land area, rather than by the countries involved, the populations, or dare I suggest it, the size of their overall economies?

No, David Davis is saying that.

You are making the classic mistake of interpreting a politician's words the way you want to, rather than actually listening to the words. It's called spin, been around years. You'll need to catch up a little.

Are you saying I'm spinning what he said, or that it was spin on his part?

Almost every time one of those Brexiteers opens their mouth it makes me laugh. Even now, having got what they wanted, and in ministerial positions, they continue to show that they just cannot grasp the nature of the problem they have created. Here's David Davis, Brexit Minister (and former Tory leadership loser):



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36819182

Talk about "Project Fantasy". Anyone spot the logical flaw yet?

It's easy enough: the EU has a economy of USD:16.2-18.5tn (depending on which reference you use), the USA has an economy of roughly the same size (USD:17.9tn), the entire world combined has an economy of around USD:73tn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

If that isn't enough data for you, try this: the EU has around 25% of the global economy, the USA has about another 25%. In order for Liam Fox to get trade deals ten times the size of that it has with the EU he's going to have to do deals with the entire population of this planet, another deal with the entire population of some parallel Earth, and another deal with half the population of yet another parallel Earth.

The absolute best deal he could do is one four times the size of that of the EU, that would be with the entire population of the planet, including the EU. Is that even within the bounds of reality?

Don't take exaggerated speak, and rhetoric to literally…

I suppose there are a couple of issues here. The first is that the whole LEAVE campaign was "Project Fantasy", and now that we are on this "Fantastic Journey" the people steering the bus still can't get the facts straight in their heads - or somehow think we are too stupid to work out that what they say is utterly meaningless (either they cannot possibly achieve what they say they are aiming for, or the aim is nonsense "puff" - ie if you believe that Davis really is talking about the land area we can do trade deals with).

The second issue is that if a politician says things like this I do genuinely expect, if he/she has any respect for the people and a grasp of the job they are supposed to be doing, to get their guesses/estimates/targets within the bounds of reasonableness, and to have meaning - Davis has failed on both of those.

Actually, remove about $3trn from that(UK economy size) EU now smaller, it has also been in decline for ages. Its also not 25% its like 17% now I think.

Asia is where the growth is coming from, Europe is a slow-growth zone.

Point 1: Entirely your own opinion, however it's interesting how you state it in a fact-like manner.

Point 2: Why would you expect a Brexit politician to say things you, a Remainer, expect? After all, you are trying to criticise him. Also I think you are the only one misinterpreting his statement so far, the rest of us read it in the appropriate context.

And let's be honest, whatever he said he would not be getting your 'respect', so let's not pretend otherwise.

The UK economy is about USD:2.8tn. I don't think it makes sense to take that out of the equation, because that is, and remains for some time to come, part of the EU economy. But even if we do that takes the remaining EU economy down to USD:13.4-15.7tn. At the lower limit that's 18.3% of the global economy and at the upper limit it is 21.8%.

So a little way to go on your estimating skills.

As to your claims about growth, I don't think you are really grasping the nature of the problem. The countries you describe as having high growth are amongst the poorest per capita in the world, and their growth and economies are fragile to say the least (take Brazil as a good example - supposedly one the great economies of the world a few years ago, now far from it).

Take India as the example often given. It has a very protectionist economy, it is quite difficult to do business there. That's not by accident, it is by design. If you think we're going to get some tariff-free, anything goes trade deal with India think again. But even if we do, what would the end result be? We'd have doubled the population covered by our trade deals to around 1 billion people. But we will reduce the size of those trade deals, in monetary terms, to USD:2.0tn (from USD:16-18tn).

Work that out on a per capita basis: average EU resident has a GDP value of USD:35,000, the average Indian resident has a per capita value of USD:2,000. To match the size of the EU economy India would need to grow by 10% a year for more than 20 years (that growth is a long way ahead of the 6% average of the past 15 years - meaning that the reality is it would take nearly 40 years for that growth to be achieved, if it were sustainable - and that relies on the EU economy having 0% actual growth - not "real terms" growth, ahead of inflation, but no growth at all).

What goods and services can you sell someone worth USD:35,000? What can you sell someone worth USD:2,000? Very different propositions I think. If you really wanted growth you'd be trying to work out how you can boost the economies of Southern and Eastern Europe. A modest 2% growth across the EU more than doubles the size of that economy over 40 years, which would still put it well ahead of India.

You need to forget about growth as an indicator, and look at the underlying numbers related to those economies. As I have pointed out several times, the EU, G8 plus China represent more than two-thirds of the global economy - to do better than we are already doing you'd need to more or less have deals with the rest of the world, excluding the above named, and hope that those developing economies develop quite quickly into something that we can do business with in the economy that we have (clue: 80% of our economy is services).

EU is $16.220trn…