Conservatives 10 points ahead of Labour

The first poll since Prime Minister May's elevation looks quite good for the Conservatives.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

ICM have a new poll in the Sun on Sunday with topline figures of CON 39%(+1), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 9%(+1), UKIP 14%(-1), GRN 4%(nc)

The polls have been quite good for the conservatives recently, mostly holding on to about an 8 point lead. Even though May has said she won't hold an election until 2020, it will surely be very tempting for her to lock in that lead and take hold of those extra seats before Labour can get its act together.

Labour has also said they will support an election motion (as required by the Fixed Term Parliament Act) so the path is open for it to occur

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Reply 1

sr90

Volunteer Team

Opinion polls always underestimate Tory support and overestimate Labour. The actual figure I reckon is over 50%

Reply 2

MyBloodisBlue

Original post by AlexanderHam

The first poll since Prime Minister May's elevation looks quite good for the Conservatives.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

The polls have been quite good for the conservatives recently, mostly holding on to about an 8 point lead. Even though May has said she won't hold an election until 2020, it will surely be very tempting for her to lock in that lead and take hold of those extra seats before Labour can get its act together.

Labour has also said they will support an election motion (as required by the Fixed Term Parliament Act) so the path is open for it to occur

It is Corbyn's fault no credibility, wants to scrap our nukes, playing into enemies hands, loves immigrants more than British and is too old

Reply 3

AlexanderHam

Original post by sr90

Opinion polls always underestimate Tory support and overestimate Labour. The actual figure I reckon is over 50%

That sounds a bit too much. And is it not possible that the "shy voters" could be Labour voters who are a bit embarrassed to admit they support the party right now?

If the shy Tories are still there then maybe it would be closer to 42%?

Reply 4

AlexanderHam

Original post by MyBloodisBlue

It is Corbyn's fault no credibility, wants to scrap our nukes, playing into enemies hands, loves immigrants more than British and is too old

You're probably right that Corbyn is a drag on the Labour vote; he's just too far away from the centre to appeal to undecided voters and moderate labour voters. The electorate also don't like parties who are beset with infighting and intrigue, which the Labour Party is at the moment.

Reply 5

scrotgrot

I read that May's bounce is not as good as other PMs appointed in mid-term.

Labour are in such a state, and the calculus around Brexit (and the hard right Tory coup it conceals) so crucial, that even I have swung to May.

The Lib Dems will make gains if they can have message discipline and a set of balls on Europe.

Reply 6

MyBloodisBlue

Original post by AlexanderHam

if he beats the welsh bloke someone needs to assassinate him

Reply 7

AlexanderHam

Original post by scrotgrot

Ive been considering switching to the Tories; I've previously voted Labour and I agree with many more of their policies than Conservative policies going on the Labour manifesto. But under Corbyn nothing in the Labour manifesto is ironclad, and I am also very concerned about national security.

If Corbyn is still leader at the next election, I would probably have to vote Conservative as I support Trident and Corbyn promised he would never use it which renders it obsolete at a stroke. If our enemies know we would never use it, then the submarines have no purpose and no value while he is in power.

I also disagree with trying to negotiate with ISIS. As much as I am resistant to the idea, it does seem like the Conservatives would be the only possible vote for me.

Reply 8

AlexanderHam

Original post by MyBloodisBlue

if he beats the welsh bloke someone needs to assassinate him

That is really not appropriate language. I understand the frustration with him, and the view that he is a threat to the country and must not be allowed to become Prime Minister, but he will never win an election; the British people will see to that

Reply 9

AlexanderHam

Original post by scrotgrot

What I do find worrying is how Labour seems to be becoming a personality cult and the leader's supporters have loyalty only to him and not to the party. I've seen a lot of brownshirt tactics and I really do believe the country's liberty would be at risk if he were to become Prime Minister.

Reply 10

AlexanderHam

Original post by MyBloodisBlue

When they killed poor Jo Cox they got the wrong MP

That really is unacceptable language, and I would give you a friendly warning that the police do take death threats against politicians quite seriously. It is a criminal offence and people are arrested for them.

Obviously what you've posted isn't a direct threat, but I'm just giving you some friendly advice to be careful saying things like that, which I know you can't really mean

Reply 11

scrotgrot

Original post by AlexanderHam

You would seriously vote on the basis of idiotic, posturing rhetoric on Trident? (May's "yes!" yesterday was no less so.) This has absolutely no bearing on what politicians would actually do in that situation (or do you believe May's "yes!" indicates she wrote "yes!" in the letters of last resort??), which is something we can be thankful for - that we are that far from nuclear war that we have the luxury of using Trident as a frame to hang a meta debate about principled leadership on.

Labour have no chance of winning a general election so your vote for them will not give Corbyn any power anyway.

As a card-carrying Labour Party member who voted for Corbyn last time (and will again this time), I will vote Lib Dem in a GE probably if they commit to ignoring Brexit. There again if I thought my Labour/Tory marginal (in a Remain-voting constituency) would continue to be so I would still vote Labour - despite for the minute supporting May's government. Confused yet?

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 12

That Bearded Man

Original post by AlexanderHam

They're loyal to a man who is a genuine honest politician. One of the very few we'll see in our lifetimes. Of course we are loyal to him.

Reply 13

That Bearded Man

Original post by MyBloodisBlue

When they killed poor Jo Cox they got the wrong MP

Well, **** you.

Reply 14

Asolare

After the mess of the 2015 election polls I'd rather not follow any polls until ones that are done on the night.

Reply 15

AlexanderHam

Original post by scrotgrot

Defence is the most fundamental responsibility of a government, and Trident is the most fundamental element of our defence posture. A party/candidate who seeks to undermine that will not get my vote. The second most important element of our defence posture is our approach to fighting terroristic Islamofascism; any candidate or party who proposes that we seek a peace deal with murderous, genocidal rapers of ISIS will not get my vote.

Regardless of the "posturing" (as you call it), the underlying policy substance is that the Conservatives support Trident and will not undermine it in the way Corbyn proposes.

Corbyn's speech about Trident yesterday was also so rambling and incoherent that I cannot have any confidence in his judgment as Prime Minister. He claimed that Saudi Arabia's intervention in Yemen demonstrated that the UK's nuclear deterrent doesn't work; it's a deranged and bizarre argument that calls into question much about his thought process and perceptions

As a card-carrying Labour Party member who voted for Corbyn last time (and will again this time), I will vote Lib Dem in a GE probably if they commit to ignoring Brexit.

That is a very strange position. As a Labour Party member you have to resign your membership (or you can be expelled) if you vote for another party. The honourable thing would be to resign your membership if you intend to vote Lib Dem. It also seems somewhat confused for you to consider support for both Corbyn and the Lib Dems given they are so far apart on the political spectrum and on policy. Pretty much everything Corbyn believes on economic policy is incompatible with the Lib Dems ideology and their actions when in government

Reply 16

AlexanderHam

Original post by That Bearded Man

They're loyal to a man who is a genuine honest politician.

He is not honest at all. He campaigned for the UK to leave the EU for decades until he became Labour leader and realised many of his strongest supporters would not stand for that. So he backflipped on decades of anti-EU campaigns, only to go ahead and undermine the pro-EU campaign during the referendum.

He damned the EU with faint praise, his staff removed pro-EU statements from his speeches, he went on holiday during the referendum campaign (at a time when many from Labour were working very hard to campaign to stay in). Around half of Labour voters were under the impression the party's policy was to leave which likely had an effect in Labour heartlands. He made a very tepid case for staying that had the effect of confirming the fears of working people (he had even planned during the referendum campaign to go to Turkey to give a pro-immigration speech, which is madness given the sensitivities of that issue during the campaign). He also said that while we are in the EU there's nothing we can do about immigration and that it is unlimited (not true, and in the situation extremely counterproductive).

So he lied and was dishonourable twice; first when he pretended to be pro staying in, and second when he still went ahead and campaigned in a way that would tend to bring about a Brexit result.

Also, shortly after he became leader he and McDonnell signed up to Osborne's budget austerity pact. Shortly after that they changed their minds, but it shows that they're not all that opposed to austerity if they were willing to consider signing up in the first place

One of the very few we'll see in our lifetimes. Of course we are loyal to him.

This whole thing about Corbyn being a living saint, the only honest man in politics, is part of the whole personality cult that we're seeing in the Labour Party. I do not see what is so honest and moral about him given he accepted gifts from lobbyists and enriched himself with money from a regime that murders gay people and stones women.

Now Labour members say "But whatabout Saudi Arabia?". What about it? How does the existence of a regime which kills gay people and stones women (Saudi Arabia) make it okay for Corbyn to do business with a regime that kills gay people and stones women (Iran)?

As for the gift he took from a lobbyist, Labour members say "But all politicians do it". Well, not all politicians. But that excuse underlines that Corbyn is no different from other politicians, only that he cloaks himself in this mantle of pure morality which makes it even more hypocritical for him to take lobbyist gifts

The long and short of it is that Corbyn is incompetent and dishonest, and he's the most unpopular opposition leader since polling began. Labour will never win a general election with him as leader. If his supporters are just a personality cult then they won't care what effect it has on the party; if they are truly about the party and about the policies and ideas, then they will advise him to step down

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 17

MyBloodisBlue

Original post by AlexanderHam

I would be happy if someone wiped him out though, but it will not be me

Reply 18

AlexanderHam

Original post by MyBloodisBlue

I would be happy if someone wiped him out though, but it will not be me

Fair enough. My position would be more along the lines of, "I wouldn't shed a tear if he suddenly had some kind of psychotic nervous breakdown and had to retire from politics".

I wouldn't feel bad for him as he is a dishonest man who has encouraged his supporters' violent tendencies.