Russia could invade Poland 'overnight', report claims

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-could-invade-poland-overnight-report-claims-a7156131.html?cmpid=facebook-post

Whilst indeed this article is little more than fear mongering by a rag it is mildly interesting due to a couple of things
1]As we should all know or at least be able to guess Russia could steam roller across Europe within a matter of weeks, even a NATO commander said this.
2] Whilst i admit ones views are rather slanted against NATO and for Russia I must say these sort of bellicose articles are becoming more common and more pugnacious by the day.

what does everyone here think on the piss poor east - west relations these days? Do you think an even tougher approach should be taken towards Putin or should we be seeking to warm relations and ease tensions?

Russia could invade Poland "overnight" and easily overwhelm its Nato allies, a study has predicted.

“Even if Moscow currently has no immediate intent to challenge Nato directly, this may unexpectedly change overnight and can be implemented with great speed, following already prepared plans," the Atlantic Council report warns.

"The capability to do so is, to a large extent, in place.”

The timing of the Russian invasion could not be predicted, the US-based think-tank report goes on to say, but the country could attack swiftly when Nato and Europe are "distracted by another crisis" or as a reaction to "misperception of Nato's activities".

The report, titled "Arming For Deterrence", claims the Alliance would be slow to respond if Russia were to invade and Polish forces would need "to delay and bog down an invading force and inflict unacceptable damage" to buy time for reinforcements.

"Nato's presence in the region is not currently large enough to achieve this," the report states.

It also suggests a number of measures to counter a resurgent Russia, such as modernising its military arsenal finding incentives to stop men of military age from leaving the country to find work abroad.

The UK has promised to deploy hundreds of troops to "deter Russia from any further aggression" in the Baltic states.

A battalion of 500 soldiers will be sent to Estonia while 150 troops will be based in Poland, with the UK assuming leadership of Nato’s standby force early next year.

At the end of June, British personnel joined Nato’s largest military drill in Ukraine near the Polish border, an exercise designed to fine-tune joint combat operations.

The drills saw 2,000 soldiers, helicopter gunships and armoured fighting vehicles take part in a series of staged war games, simulating battle conditions.

Poland joined Nato in 1999, a decade after the demise of Moscow-backed communism in eastern Europe. Warsaw has been very critical of Moscow's actions in Ukraine and has repeatedly urged Nato to boost its presence on Polish territory.

Nato has reiterated its commitment to install four new battalions in eastern Europe, a promise made following Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

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Reply 1

KingBradly

Big difference between "could" and "would". Why the hell would this happen? I'm fairly sure Putin doesn't want to start WW3 because he fancies taking over Poland.

Reply 2

IronicalMan

Well yeah, Russia is a vast country and has a patriotic population, the west does not....

Reply 3

JabaDaba12

Original post by IronicalMan

Well yeah, Russia is a vast country and has a patriotic population, the west does not....

My Russian might come in use in this new era.

Reply 4

IronicalMan

Original post by JabaDaba12

My Russian might come in use in this new era.

I wanted to learn it once, but it's far too hard, and that with my studies and having no one at the school I was at, it seemed pretty pointless. They may be technologically behind the west. But no democratic country would be ever use nukes in the 21st century...

Reply 5

user73867

Original post by Napp

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-could-invade-poland-overnight-report-claims-a7156131.html?cmpid=facebook-post

This isn't news.

NATO policy has always been that if Russia crosses into Poland, Europe has to try and contain them in Germany until the Americans arrive.

There really is no NATO without the US.

SS

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 6

Napp

Original post by JabaDaba12

My Russian might come in use in this new era.

слава тоже Родины :tongue:

Reply 7

JabaDaba12

Original post by Supersaps

And Trump wants to leave.

Getting real tired of dependence on the US. When are we going to grow a spine?

Reply 8

Napp

Original post by Supersaps

I assume you didn't read what i wrote whereby i denounced it as scare mongering?

I'll correct you there, that has been American policy, not European I find it hard to believe it would be European policy to contain the war on Europes western seaboard... Either way its fairly academic as in all probability unless said war went nuclear Russia would have little trouble walking over Europe and the chances of the Americans being able to eject a far larger force whom have every possible advantage is less than likely.

Indeed there is not, probably explains why the western european nations dislike the club so much and the eastern europeans love it :rolleyes:

Reply 9

user73867

Original post by JabaDaba12

And Trump wants to leave.

Getting real tired of dependence on the US. When are we going to grow a spine?

Well, the US spends 10 times more on its military than Russia.

It also operates 11 aircraft carrier strike groups, with submarines, anti-missile cruisers and frigates giving it an incredible ability to project power across the globe. I think Russia has one?

At the moment, we've got half an aircraft carrier with (as I understand) 0 fighters to go on it. We're barely spending the 2% required as part of our NATO membership. Many countries in NATO don't even spend this.

SS

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 10

user73867

Original post by Napp

I assume you didn't read what i wrote whereby i denounced it as scare mongering?

Sorry, my ire was mostly aimed at the author of the article.

The Americans would smash the Russians particularly in Naval Dominance and Air Superiority (Reference: Budget, Carrier groups, etc) but it really would be a question of political will. America seems to be retreating from the world and Russia seems to be advancing. No wonder when all we seem to do is criticise America even though we rely on their defence everyday... :wink:

Reply 11

Galaxie501

Germany was the buffer zone for the West AND the East during the cold war. Both superpowers were ready to sacrifice Germany as the initial battlefield if it ever turned hot.

I dont think Russia would invade Poland again. This isnt 1939.

Reply 12

King7

What is it with the Western propaganda that Russia is evil and always the enemy? If not for them (the Soviets) Nazism may still be here, let alone the mainstream part of Europe!

And in response to the OP, if they can, then believe me, they would have done so already!

Reply 13

Good bloke

Original post by IronicalMan

But no democratic country would be ever use nukes in the 21st century...

I don't know what gives you that naive idea. NATO doctrine is that it is a defensive alliance and will never invade but that if NATO territory is invaded and it appears to be losing then it will make nuclear first strikes.

The so-called nuclear deterrent's role is to deter any aggression, not just a nuclear attack, against NATO territory.

We lived for decades under the threat of overwhelmingly stronger conventional forces owned by the Warsaw Pact, which was deterred from attacking solely by the threat of suffering a nuclear first strike by NATO.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 14

Alfissti

I doubt they would invade as in move tank divisions into Poland, more likely they would give support to any separatist movements or start funding one to cause some instability. Somewhat similar to what they did in Crimea.

Original post by JabaDaba12

And Trump wants to leave.

Getting real tired of dependence on the US. When are we going to grow a spine?

Well that spine does cost money. Would you like less NHS or tuition fees to go up or tolled roads everywhere or a tax increase on everything?

Reply 15

user73867

Original post by King7

The Russians & Germany invaded Poland together in 1939, you know? Not many do.

They only came onside because Hitler decided to invade Russia, etc as I'm sure you know. So, they didn't exactly have a choice but their initial choice of sides was definitely against us.

You claim that Western propaganda makes the Russians look 'evil' but then you go on to say that if the Russians could invade Poland, they would! You argue against yourself in the same post!

SS

Reply 16

Napp

Original post by Supersaps

No offence given, none taken :smile:

I would contest that point, true the Americans are superficially more powerful at sea having several carrier groups to Russias one the Russians have probably the most advanced A2AD systems around which would all but close off the any attempt at air superiority, Russia has some of the best submarines and most well trained seamen around whilst Americas abilitys at anti submarine warfare have 'atrophied' [according to a report by Andrew Metrick from CSIS].
This all being said let us hope it remains theoretical..

Mmm i'd surmise Russia's new found pugnacious behaviour has a limit though, Putin doesnt seem the type to go on a suicide mission nor stupid enough to over play his hand too far.
Indeed :tongue:

Reply 17

Good bloke

Original post by King7

What is it with the Western propaganda that Russia is evil and always the enemy?

So the Cold War is a figment of my imagination? The Soviets did not invade Finland and Poland? They didn't send troops into Ukraine?

Western Europe has two main enemies: Russia and Islamism.

Reply 18

iamrighturwrong

Anyone getting a little sick of this anti-Russian propaganda being pushed by the media?

F America, F NATO, they've the one's who helped destabilise the Middle East that caused the refugee crisis.

Know your real enemy people.

(edited 7 years ago)

Reply 19