North Korea has done its fifth nuclear test

There'll be no invasion. It'll simply cost too much, both in terms of lives and money.

Reply 2

OP

Original post by Drewski

There'll be no invasion. It'll simply cost too much, both in terms of lives and money.

This will cost more if they get the bomb

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Reply 3

user73867

Original post by paul514

This will cost more if they get the bomb

They've already got 'the bomb' - this isn't Iran.

Reply 4

Cll_ws

I don't think either side would risk all out war unless provoked, even NK. They could cause some damage for sure, but they will know that it'll ultimately end their country as they know it. It's*just a case of monitoring the situation until obvious steps are made towards that scenario, if they ever are.

Reply 5

Drewski

Original post by paul514

This will cost more if they get the bomb

There's a difference between having it and using it.

Reply 6

Original post by paul514

Surely now is the time to insist they stop with their long range missile and nuclear ambitions.

Give them a time limit to comply or invade.

It's not worth even thinking about giving that totalitarian dictatorship enough time to let them have the bomb.

Posted from TSR Mobile

Well we are insisting on that, hence the sanctions on North Korea. But their leaders would rather have guns than butter. They have nukes so we cannot invade unless you want to see the entire peninsular and part of China with all new glow in the dark features.

The second issue is that China would rather tolerate a nuclear unstable regime than allow a unified korea peninsular and a zerg rush of refugees into their country.

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Reply 7

Lazarus26

8

I reckon the US/SKorea should issue a warning, then using intelligence of where the weapons and launchers are do a surgical strike to disable them without a full on invasion

Reply 8

Fullofsurprises

20

Original post by Lazarus26

I reckon the US/SKorea should issue a warning, then using intelligence of where the weapons and launchers are do a surgical strike to disable them without a full on invasion

They probably do make plans for this kind of thing, but it would likely have devastating results for South Korea - you have to remember that Seoul, a city of more than 10m people, is just over the border from NK and within easy striking range of conventional weapons, which the North permanently stations and points in that direction. Even the most concerted plan of pre-neutralising attacks would miss some and no doubt they have many hardened and underground positions that would survive first attacks. Not to mention that it would all have to be prepared in total secrecy, an unlikely scenario in the modern world.

Reply 9

Fullofsurprises

20

Original post by Aj12

Well we are insisting on that, hence the sanctions on North Korea. But their leaders would rather have guns than butter. They have nukes so we cannot invade unless you want to see the entire peninsular and part of China with all new glow in the dark features.

The second issue is that China would rather tolerate a nuclear unstable regime than allow a unified korea peninsular and a zerg rush of refugees into their country.

Posted from TSR Mobile

The current Chinese governing plutocrats are also deeply fearful of the border of a unified Korea under Western-style control coming right up to their border, with the potential for US-backed (or US forces themselves) military to come right up to their frontier. They don't have another frontier like that - to the West and South, it's impenetrable deserts and mountains and to the North they are 'protected' by Mongolia and the expanses of Siberia from easy attack. This is a long running paranoid fear in China with historic dimensions.

Reply 10

Original post by Fullofsurprises

The current Chinese governing plutocrats are also deeply fearful of the border of a unified Korea under Western-style control coming right up to their border, with the potential for US-backed (or US forces themselves) military to come right up to their frontier. They don't have another frontier like that - to the West and South, it's impenetrable deserts and mountains and to the North they are 'protected' by Mongolia and the expanses of Siberia from easy attack. This is a long running paranoid fear in China with historic dimensions.

Whilst I can understand the historical basis for maintaining a policy like that I cannot understand why the Chinese do not see that North Korea is the sole factor keeping US troops in the region. They are concerned about THAAD now, but THAAD is only their due to North Korea, remove the regime and the American troops will go with it. Keep backing North Korea and it'll keep increasing tensions causing a larger military response from the States. They are bringing about one of the outcomes they are trying to prevent.

it will end in tears

Original post by Aj12

Whilst I can understand the historical basis for maintaining a policy like that I cannot understand why the Chinese do not see that North Korea is the sole factor keeping US troops in the region. They are concerned about THAAD now, but THAAD is only their due to North Korea, remove the regime and the American troops will go with it. Keep backing North Korea and it'll keep increasing tensions causing a larger military response from the States. They are bringing about one of the outcomes they are trying to prevent.

Rationality doesn't always seem to triumph in Beijing, although it has done more than it used to in recent decades. The military build up over the South China Sea, the position regarding Taiwan and the competition with other ASEAN countries over oil and other marine resources in that sea are all tending to push China into confrontations with the US or US allies in the region. It's against that background that we should view the North Korea situation. The Chinese government now sees itself as the leading power in the region and the US as an arrogant interloper.

Reply 13

anarchism101

17

Original post by Aj12

The second issue is that China would rather tolerate a nuclear unstable regime than allow a unified korea peninsular and a zerg rush of refugees into their country.

Posted from TSR Mobile

Most people in South Korea are a bit skeptical about a united Korea, essentially because the required investment in the North would be huge - East Germany's post-reunification cost to West Germany would be nothing in comparison. Also because North Koreans have essentially been living in a cult for decades and will somehow have to be integrated into a more normal society.

Reply 14

Original post by Fullofsurprises

Rationality doesn't always seem to triumph in Beijing, although it has done more than it used to in recent decades. The military build up over the South China Sea, the position regarding Taiwan and the competition with other ASEAN countries over oil and other marine resources in that sea are all tending to push China into confrontations with the US or US allies in the region. It's against that background that we should view the North Korea situation. The Chinese government now sees itself as the leading power in the region and the US as an arrogant interloper.

Funny, this is all starting to sound like a previous conflict in the region between around 1937 through to 1945....

Reply 15

Fullofsurprises

20

Original post by Aj12

Funny, this is all starting to sound like a previous conflict in the region between around 1937 through to 1945....

Yes indeed, if you take what Japan did in the 30s and give that role to China, you almost have it.

So far, China hasn't invaded a major chunk of Japan and wreaked havoc there in the most barbaric ways imaginable though, which I think says something for their humanity.

Reply 16

OP

Original post by the bear

it will end in tears

That's exactly what I think

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Reply 17

OP

Original post by Aj12

Well we are insisting on that, hence the sanctions on North Korea. But their leaders would rather have guns than butter. They have nukes so we cannot invade unless you want to see the entire peninsular and part of China with all new glow in the dark features.

The second issue is that China would rather tolerate a nuclear unstable regime than allow a unified korea peninsular and a zerg rush of refugees into their country.

Posted from TSR Mobile

Yes I know that. However we can insist on it with the threat of military action without compliance and when I say we I mean NATO nations not the UN

Posted from TSR Mobile

Reply 18

Original post by paul514

Yes I know that. However we can insist on it with the threat of military action without compliance and when I say we I mean NATO nations not the UN

Posted from TSR Mobile

North Korea understand how MAD works, how do you propose NATO avoid the decimation of South Korea and thousands of casualties? If they do not believe a threat of military action is realistic then it is worse than useless.

Reply 19

OP