The thing is, what's written there is pretty much correct. But that's not the point I was making.
Applying to a college that gets fewer applications won't necessarily increase your chances of getting an offer. A college that gets 10 applications and makes 1 offer is no better for your chances that a college that gets 100 applications and makes 10 offers. You have to do a more detailed analysis, where you examine their applicant : offer ratio, and factor in the number of people that get offers after being pooled.
I think a big cause of the misunderstanding over this is because of a belief in a mythical 'good enough' standard, that means that if you are suitably qualified you will get into Cambridge regardless of the college you apply to. It can be summarised as 'If you're good enough for Cambridge, you will get in.'
But this isn't true.
What's 'good enough' for one college is not good enough for another. One of the main things that will affect whether you are 'good enough' is how many applicants they get and how many offers they are prepared to make. Where a college receives a ton of applications but are prepared to only admit a few students (and it is true that colleges have a rough idea of how many offers they want to make), the college will be forced to be much more scrutinous in assessing their applicants, and naturally the calibre of students at that college will be higher simply because they have to be exceptionally good to be given a place over the army of other applicants. For a smaller college that receives less applicants and makes more offers, the college will be more willing to accept applicants who wouldn't have made it at the larger college that doesn't make many offers. (Of course colleges are not obliged to take anyone, but, yunno, they do anyway, so it's reasonable to assume that smaller colleges - to some extent - adapt their standards based on the general quality of that year's cohort.
What Cambridge said in that link you posted is probably true. There are certain - note how they specified 'well-qualified' applicants - applicants who will probably be made an offer regardless of what college they applied to. But for fringe candidates like me, the college I apply to (based on how many applications and how many offers they make, as well as the general quality of their cohort) will make all the difference.
It's not like this should be the only factor in picking a college though; there's no point in applying to a college you hate just because your chances are better there. But I think it should be a factor. People should come to a decision on what college to apply to through both the admissions statistics and their personal preference. (Or rather, they shouldn't, because then it would make it very difficult for me to make consistent predictions
)