What are my chances for Politics and History at Oxford?

If you live outside the EU then you don't qualify for home fees, even though you are a British citizen.

If you meet the entry requirements and otherwise have a strong application you should be fine.

The requirements for my course are 38 with a 6,6,6 at HL; however I've been told not to take these for granted, as they are more of a minimum to apply with than an average score you'd get an offer on

That's right but I'm not sure what you want people to say. No one on here is an admissions tutor and if they are they certainly won't discuss your application with you on here. There are so many other things that go into the decision about whether or not you get an offer which you can't control or predict so just apply and take the risk if you're keen.

No, you can apply for home fees if your parents work for certain (British tax-paying) organisations and you have strong ties to the United Kingdom.

You are ordinarily resident in the relevant residence area (which depends on the category and its qualifying conditions) if you have habitually, normally and lawfully resided in that area from choice. Temporary absences from the residence area should be ignored and therefore would not stop you being ordinarily resident. It has also previously been successfully argued in the UK courts that an individual can be ordinarily resident in more than one place at the same time; individuals wishing to demonstrate this would have to be living a lawful, normal and habitual residence in each of the areas in question.

If you can demonstrate that you have not been ordinarily resident in the relevant residence area only because you, or a family member, were temporarily working outside the relevant residence area, you will be treated as though you have been ordinarily resident there.

Where a category includes a condition that the main purpose of your residence must not have been to receive full-time education, a useful question to ask is: "if you had not been in full-time education, where would you have been ordinarily resident?". If the answer to this question is "outside the relevant residence area" this would indicate that the main purpose for your residence was full-time education. If the answer is that you would have been resident in the relevant residence area even if you had not been in full-time education, this would indicate that full-time education was not the main purpose for your residence in the relevant area.

Source: http://www.ukcisa.org.uk/Information--Advice/Fees-and-Money/England-fee-status#RL?rl_playlist=playlist6085&rl_id=4

Many of the provisions of the fees and Student Support (student finance) regulations require ordinary residence in the UK and Islands, or in the EEA, Switzerland, overseas territories and/or Turkey. In most cases, it is clear whether you have been ordinarily resident in the relevant area. However, in a minority of cases, you might have to persuade an institution or Student Support authority that you meet this requirement. This is most likely to happen when, for some or all of the relevant period, you have lived outside the residence area that applies to you. In such cases, the legislation for England, Wales and Northern Ireland provides no guidance and those assessing your eligibility for 'home' fees and Student Support have to rely on cases that have been decided in UK courts and tribunals. Each case is decided on its own facts and it might be difficult to derive a general principle from every case. This is why it is possible for institutions and authorities to reach different conclusions in your case, even though you present them with the same facts. UKCISA cannot get involved with any disputes you might have with decision-makers. However, you might find the summaries of case law helpful in formulating your arguments.

'Ordinary residence' is a concept that appears in many areas of law. Therefore, many of the cases described here are not fees or Student Support cases but come from other areas of law, for example from immigration and nationality cases. However, the courts' interpretations of the term 'ordinary residence' are relevant to fees and Student Support cases. In some of the immigration and nationality cases, the period of ordinary residence in question was five years. This should not be confused with the requirements of the fees and Student Support regulations. These cases are included because of their interpretation of the term 'ordinary residence' and related issues such as temporary absence.

Source:http://www.ukcisa.org.uk/Information--Advice/Fees-and-Money/Ordinary-residence-case-law

There are a small number of very specific rules which entitle you to home fees if your parents temporarily work overseas, but simply working for a British tax-paying organisation is not one of them. This is a very grey area and each case will be considered individually.

My parents do temporarily work overseas, and we are making the case for home fees with each university. My post clearly stated that we are making the case, not assuming that we will get them for sure. Removed this part from my post because it was a clarification, and not what I really wanted to ask about on this thread.

With respect, your post did not make clear that you were making the case for why you should be treated as a home student; you just said that you were an international applicant (with British citizenship). I don't think I was wrong to point out the residency requirement for home fee status because, in the vast majority of cases, it would have been relevant.

Anyway, I don't want to derail this thread anymore, I hope you get your answers. If you haven't already done so, you might want to look at the University of Oxford forum to get an idea of other people's grades.