OOPS FORGOT TO QUOTE BUT THIS IS IN ANSWER TO THE DURHAM GUY
But that's not really relevant to Oxford colleges because if some college is oversubscribed for one subject by a notable amount (or undersubscribed), candidates are reassigned before interview to other colleges in order for the numbers to be evened up relative to the number of places each college has. Plus there's the process of some candidates having second interviews anyway.
As far as I know Durham has no similar system - in part because although Durham is a collegiate university in terms of accommodation and so on, there's no teaching at college level whereas college tutorials are in many ways the crux of the Oxford system. They also don't interview for the majority of subjects, which is another reason why numbers need to be evened up. Durham applicants are accepted at department level, Oxford applicants at college level.
Also although some applicants will look at department distance, there are so many other factors that most people take into account because of the importance the college plays in your Oxford life. And everyone will tell you 'a long way away' in Oxford terms, is nothing in some big cities' terms anyway!
The point is OP - the differences are so minimal that you are far better choosing your college on other factors, and to not try and guess which are the most oversubscribed. If tutors think you are good enough, you will get an offer from a college regardless of where you first applied.