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North Korea likely to carry out nuclear test

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Original post by TheHansa
America will not descend into anarchy where these things could get chucked around North Korea might. I'd sooner see Iran a country which can feed and educate its people with them rather than NK.


I mean if we're bounding around ideal situation it seems like none of us should have them , but hey - given that de-nuclearisation is practically impossible, I like the idea that as much as the United States has the military clout to take on the world, there is a fail-safe.


Very cute, except you know as well as I do that you can't make knowledge disappear. As long as the knowledge to build nuclear weapons are out there, giving them up because everyone else does still doesn't make sense. The only people who gave them up are those that really could not afford to keep them and it wasn't worth the increased military benefits.

Well this is under the assumption that I want the currently existing nuclear nations to remain unopposed out of some unfounded belief that they're the 'good guys so it's okay'. A belief I do not have.


It doesn't matter whether you think they're the good guys - more countries with nukes means more chances of them being used, whether they're going into the hands of Kim or the Dalai Lama.

No, they're the only thing that'll give you a strong negotiating position against the United States. The US, its military and its hegemony are all vetoed by one thing, a nuclear weapon. By all means, as I've said before, I'm all about ringing the bell for peace and love and obliterating all nuclear weapons for all nuclear states, but I'm not going to abide by the rules that 'some nations get them because they're the good guys WOOT and the others don't'. I support North Korea's right to seek the same militaristic clout deterrent wise as the United States.


Ok, well good for you, but your original argument wasn't "I think they should have nukes", it was "The US has a double standard over nukes" which isn't true. Obviously it doesn't want North Korea to have nukes, because it has no interest in having additional nuclear powers in the world, especially when they're gung-ho nutters. That's not a double standard.

I suggest you compare the US military record to that of North Korea. We'll see who's 'dove-like'. Here's a spoiler: it's not the US. By comparison, North Korea has not laid a finger on the world, the US however will go to war with any desert nomad it can find if it supports its interests.


Yeah, and my friend who's too short to press down on the pedals of a car hasn't run anyone over, either - what a saint! North Korea hasn't invaded anyone because it can't even feed its own people, let alone launch an offensive military campaign. With nukes that's not an issue. The US, on the other hand, has repeatedly sent soldiers abroad into foreign countries, and not once since 1945 has it actually used its nukes. If the US wants to fight a war, it has a million and one ways to do it. If North Korea wanted to (and given their constitution and their forced military conscription, that's hardly out of the question), them getting nukes would increase their methods of waging war from 0 to 1. And a horrifying destructive 1 at that.
Reply 42
Original post by In2deep
Don't be a hypocrite, you would only live "in a world where a select few countries have nuclear weapons" if those countries are ones you consider yourself to be "friendly". Hence, the less nations with nuclear weapons (apart from us!) the better.

The simple reason countries such as the US don't want N.Korea or Iran having nukes isn't because they are worried of being attacked, we could forever claim their leaders to be lunatics but we both know they won't risk their lives and their claim to power by sending a nuke in any direction as it will only results in a more powerful nuke being sent back within seconds. The reason is simple, they have no sway politically or militarily over a country with nuclear capabilities and that unfortunately cannot be accepted by an imperialistic government.


I don't consider China friendly but I can deal with them having nuclear weapons. When it comes to nuclear weapons the only position that makes any sense and this applies to those that want all nuclear weapons to be launched into the sun is that you support the status quo or a form of it. The current nations that have nuclear weapons will always have them and will likely never give them up. No nation has ever given up a fully working nuclear deterrent. The best that any rational person can want is that the current nations with nuclear weapons stay the same, they cut their arsenals to more acceptable levels and any attempt by any nation be they Iran or Australia should be stamped on and stopped. Anything else is just a pipe dream. Unless of course you advocate all nation states to be allowed nuclear weapons in which case I think you are completely and utterly insane.
Original post by SpongebobSquarepan
because the west wont use them unless in the retaliation

whereas these fruitloop countries will use them first


Uhm, they really really won't.

Mutually assured destruction old chum. As loopy as they may be, (and they are, don't worry, I'm aware of that), they're not going to write their nation out of existence.
Original post by Aj12
No nation has ever given up a fully working nuclear deterrent. .


South africa did.
Reply 45
Original post by jumpingjesusholycow
Well in that case, why does any nation need them? You are of course making the obvious reason why we should all, unilaterally lay down arms, including Russia, China, The US and its allies.

That said, if the people United States have the right and desire to live under a state with a nuclear deterrent, so too are the rights of anyone else.



If a nation seeks to 'alienate' itself from the process set forth by the United States, it has the right to do so. Why you seem to think I have some obligation to prefer US autonomy above that of any other nation, I have no idea. As it is, the UN, its protocol and its reach are merely just extensions of United States hegemony. The only reason the United States is alarmed is merely because it feels its hegemony being challenged. Again, I'm all with you on the anti-Nuclear bandwagon so long as you're willing to apply the same rules on western Europe and US as you are East Asia and Russia.


You are assuming all states are rational and stable. If that were the case then sure. If we could guarantee that nations would only ever use nuclear weapons for self defence then your idea that all nations have a right to nuclear weapons would be fine. MBut since we live in a world where many nations that want nuclear weapons are incredibly unstable and likely to collapse allowing nuclear weapons to fall into anyone's hands I think we should hold off on allowing all nations the right to the most powerful weapon ever created.
Original post by jumpingjesusholycow
I consider the judgement calls that senior US military chiefs to be outside of conventional humanitarian rationale. It's a moot point to makte.


Objective rules of engagement that conform with international law I'd personally say are conventional humanitarian rationale in the theatre of conflict, with increased emphasis on the limitation and stressed avoidance of civilian causalities. I don't see how a man of reason that you seem to proclaim would disagree with that assessment of the rules of engagement.



You're contradicting yourself. First it's all about 'ration state actor', then it's all about 'sovereign nations and enacting their national interests'. I see no reason for North Korea to lay down ambitions for nuclear weapons that don't also see the United States, UK etc. doing so.


Perhaps it's my mistake I wasn't as clear. Your first argument was that the United States doesn't have a right to argue who has nuclear weapons and they must respect a countries right to do so. However, I'm saying that the United States has an obligation to act if its interests are threatened, which is, an irrational state-actor acquiring nuclear weapons. That's not a contradiction of terms, it's how realpolitik works. Stability in the Korean peninsula is in the US interest and with the North Korea adding to instability, it is an attack on the United States interest.



Not true. We bully the world, rape our fellow nations for oil and bomb whatever sandpit we can find. The United Kingdom's state interests, are for the most part pretty damn awful.


Right, yeah. The oil debate. I'm surprised that Kabul isn't the next Abu Dhabi with the amount of oil Afghanistan seems to have. Please, if you're going to bring the oil debate, bring some objective statistics into this. Afghanistan isn't even an oil producing nation. The only interest of oil is the pipeline which runs through Turkmenistan and Pakistan which has been sold to China, so it adds to substance to the oil debate you seem to be preaching. Iraq? The coalition netted zero additional oil reserves.



You're still failing to make a legitimate point here. It's simply a case of 'every nation must act for its own interests' that you're advocating here, in which case, carry on North Korea eh?


Which I have explained above.




For whatever reason, the United States is willing support, and aid nations that use rape as a systematic tool, as long as the actions are in the interest of the United States. This tells us there's no reason to believe the US is a force for good and is at least ambivalent to the use of systematic rape in war.


Not as a state, no, as you seem to inferring. Civil servants in the Blood telegram show direct opposition to the Nixon-administration's involvement (or lack of) in Pakistan. Infact, Congress actually imposed sanctions on Pakistan in 1971. It was really Nixon using his executive power, which didn't represent the will of Congress, to supply (and unofficially) support Pakistan. However, this was detene grounds and movement towards being aligned closer to China to curb communism and Soviet hegemony in Southern Asia. We all know what a crook Nixon was but I don't think it's calculated to reflect the entire ethos of the United States on the Nixon administration.


By now, it is established fact. I have no need nor desire to conform to anyone's propaganda, not least that of Qatari state-run outlets.


You've missed my point. My point was that this information of rape sanctioned by the United States would be of great interest to anti-Western media outlets that you seem to hold, but for the purposes of debate, I will pass them as sensationalist rhetoric on your part.
Haha the modern left is so funny. Cheering on North Korea armed with nuclear weapons because it will make the world a better place. LOL!
Reply 48
Original post by green.tea
South africa did.


Google what a fully working nuclear deterrent is I don't think not even being able to carry out a successful nuclear test really counts now does it?
Original post by jumpingjesusholycow
Uhm, they really really won't.

Mutually assured destruction old chum. As loopy as they may be, (and they are, don't worry, I'm aware of that), they're not going to write their nation out of existence.


So why the hell do they want to build them if they know we are not going to fire at them, and they know if they used them we would destroy them?

They clearly want to use them for something.
Original post by Aj12
Google what a fully working nuclear deterrent is I don't think not even being able to carry out a successful nuclear test really counts now does it?


From the 1960s to the 1980s, South Africa pursued research into weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. Six nuclear weapons were assembled.[2] With the anticipated changeover to a majority-elected government in the 1990s, the South African government dismantled all of its nuclear weapons, the first nation in the world which voluntarily gave up nuclear arms it had developed itself.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
Reply 51
eun.jpgrocketcdr.jpg
Failed satellite launch; failed ICBM launch.

Bet on it.
Reply 53


As I pointed out they never tested the weapons. Fully working nuclear deterrent requires proof that the weapons work. Nor did they have a proper launch system in place either. As well as this they only ever have 6 weapons when a nation that has produced a 100 plus nuclear weapons and has a huge nuclear infrastructure disarms I'll give some credit to the idea of nuclear disarment.
(edited 12 years ago)
Original post by Aj12
Apart from Iraq Afghanistan Libya and the first gulf war were all legitimate.


Everything is legitimate isn't it? We invade Libya as a result of a purposeful false translation of Gaddafi's statement of going "door to door", and we'll invade Iran because Ahmadinejad supposedly said he wants to "wipe Israel of the map", which again was another deliberate mistranslation.

Perhaps we should have some consistency? Why not impose a no fly zone over Gaza when Israeli state-terrorism threatens Palestinian sovereignty? Instead we let hundreds of children die at the hands of these terrorists.

Why not impose a no fly zone over Syria? Assad has done far more than Gaddafi ever did, and his regime has been involved in religious persecution, rape, and torture for years. Better still, why not impose no fly zones over Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Bahrain?

After all, we imposed a no fly zone over Libya to protect civilians right? It had nothing to do with the rebels making illicit oil deals with BP from the onset did it? We might as well start policing the Bangladeshi-Indian border, and invade central Africa too? After all tens die everyday and we really need to protect those civilians!
Reply 55
Original post by Aj12
I don't consider China friendly but I can deal with them having nuclear weapons. When it comes to nuclear weapons the only position that makes any sense and this applies to those that want all nuclear weapons to be launched into the sun is that you support the status quo or a form of it. The current nations that have nuclear weapons will always have them and will likely never give them up. No nation has ever given up a fully working nuclear deterrent. The best that any rational person can want is that the current nations with nuclear weapons stay the same, they cut their arsenals to more acceptable levels and any attempt by any nation be they Iran or Australia should be stamped on and stopped. Anything else is just a pipe dream. Unless of course you advocate all nation states to be allowed nuclear weapons in which case I think you are completely and utterly insane.



Lets not kid ourselves, no government will ever get rid of a weapon which could protect them from an imminent invasion no matter what state the country is in, it is the ultimate defence.

There are only two moral sides that hold any weight in this argument, you either a) want every country to get rid of their nuclear stockpile without any leniency or favouritism and without accepting a status quo or b) you accept every nation's right to acquire a deterrent which could protect them from an invasion, whether you consider them to be the "enemy" or not is irrelevant.

Allowing the status quo while acknowledging that certain countries use this advantage in a way that secures them resources and guarantees their dominance and future stability in world affairs is hypocritical because you would deem it unethical if the tables were flipped and it was countries near you who were being invaded.

Would you seriously accept the status quo if in a few years, for example, only Russia and China had nuclear weapons (hypothetical of course) and were invading countries for x reason knowing that your country would not be invaded if it had nuclear weapons? Exactly.
(edited 12 years ago)
Reply 56
Original post by Pious_Intellectual
Everything is legitimate isn't it? We invade Libya as a result of a purposeful false translation of Gaddafi's statement of going "door to door", and we'll invade Iran because Ahmadinejad supposedly said he wants to "wipe Israel of the map", which again was another deliberate mistranslation.

Perhaps we should have some consistency? Why not impose a no fly zone over Gaza when Israeli state-terrorism threatens Palestinian sovereignty? Instead we let hundreds of children die at the hands of these terrorists.

Why not impose a no fly zone over Syria? Assad has done far more than Gaddafi ever did, and his regime has been involved in religious persecution, rape, and torture for years. Better still, why not impose no fly zones over Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Bahrain?

After all, we imposed a no fly zone over Libya to protect civilians right? It had nothing to do with the rebels making illicit oil deals with BP from the onset did it? We might as well start policing the Bangladeshi-Indian border, and invade central Africa too? After all tens die everyday and we really need to protect those civilians!


No actually we went in due to the massacre Gaddafi had ordered and was on going. Just go look at some of the reports that were coming out of Libya including the UN report from a team that was out there while it was going on. Not sure why you are mentioning Iran since my post referred to Libya the First Gulf War and Afghanistan as legitimate conflicts.

We can afford consistency, its not how the world works. Why should we be bound by the doctrine or everywhere or nowhere? We have an chance to easily remove a dictator who was murdering his own people and have supported terrorism against the UK and USA. I'm sure France, the USA, Norway, Canada and quite a few others all got involved because of oil deals with BP right?

If you'l notice the main thing stopping action over Syria is that Assad has protectors in China and Russia who are supporting him. But I'm sure that must be the West's fault too.
Original post by SpongebobSquarepan
So why the hell do they want to build them if they know we are not going to fire at them, and they know if they used them we would destroy them?

They clearly want to use them for something.


The same reason anybody wants them - its a nuclear deterrent that will make the rest of the world treat them seriously, regardless of the size/capabilities of their actual conventional military.


Original post by Aj12
You are assuming all states are rational and stable. If that were the case then sure. If we could guarantee that nations would only ever use nuclear weapons for self defence then your idea that all nations have a right to nuclear weapons would be fine. MBut since we live in a world where many nations that want nuclear weapons are incredibly unstable and likely to collapse allowing nuclear weapons to fall into anyone's hands I think we should hold off on allowing all nations the right to the most powerful weapon ever created.


I actually think TheHansa's idea is rather eloquent. A nuclear weapon for every regional block, located in the most stable country. What you're suggesting sounds logical, and it is - but it rests on the assumption that I'm comfortable with the existing status quo, and I'm not. As stable as the United States is, and admittedly, it is - their unrivalled clout has lead us into a sorry state, and I respect nations' right to challenge that.



Original post by VeniViciVidi
x


You've made two legible points which I'll address directly since this is just becoming a quote-fest that'll just run discussion into the ground.


Perhaps it's my mistake I wasn't as clear. Your first argument was that the United States doesn't have a right to argue who has nuclear weapons and they must respect a countries right to do so. However, I'm saying that the United States has an obligation to act if its interests are threatened, which is, an irrational state-actor acquiring nuclear weapons. That's not a contradiction of terms, it's how realpolitik works. Stability in the Korean peninsula is in the US interest and with the North Korea adding to instability, it is an attack on the United States interest.


Right, so we're reaching the understanding that sovereign nations have a right to act in their own interest, so fine. North Korea will attain its nuclear deterrent and the United States will get uppity about its hegemony being challenged. Hot air, but fine. If the US wants to kick up a fuss about something is can't do anything about, so be it.

Not as a state, no, as you seem to inferring. Civil servants in the Blood telegram show direct opposition to the Nixon-administration's involvement (or lack of) in Pakistan. Infact, Congress actually imposed sanctions on Pakistan in 1971. It was really Nixon using his executive power, which didn't represent the will of Congress, to supply (and unofficially) support Pakistan. However, this was detene grounds and movement towards being aligned closer to China to curb communism and Soviet hegemony in Southern Asia. We all know what a crook Nixon was but I don't think it's calculated to reflect the entire ethos of the United States on the Nixon administration.


Ah, I can see you've taken the time to do all of about 5 minutes of research on Wikipedia, enough to reference the Blood Telegram and brush off US support for unjust wars because the President went ahead with executive power. What we see here is the US being ambivalent to any humanitarian cause. It only matters where US interests are concerned, and if the US interests go against the humanitarian resolve, well hey - what's it matter. The irony here being you're willing to say anything to sign off against US aggression, holding them accountable for nothing. It's not that they just 'approved' of it, it's that they helped in the fight, providing aid. The argument that it was a 'proxy war' is no excuse, it was willing to support nations that use systematic rape, so long as it benefits them.
Original post by Aj12
As I pointed out they never tested the weapons. Fully working nuclear deterrent requires proof that the weapons work. As well as this they only ever have 6 weapons when a nation that has produced a 100 plus nuclear weapons and has a huge nuclear infrastructure disarms I'll give some credit to the idea of nuclear disarment.


Well ok thats true so it wasnt 100% certified working but the odds are strongly in favor of it it working considering the number of devices that didnt work at all is pretty low and most of those we're of more ambitious design than its likely someone would start out with.

It shows that international pressure can work in some cases. I doubt the fact that south africa hadn't tested a device had much bearing on their decision to dismantle them.

Edit: although i'm now reading it was probably fear of them getting into the wron hands that caused them to dismantle them. Which bodes well for places like pakistan who should do the same in the face of islamic fundamentalist revolution.
(edited 12 years ago)
Reply 59
Original post by In2deep
Lets not kid ourselves, no government will ever get rid of a weapon which could protect them from an imminent invasion no matter what state the country is in, it is the ultimate defence.

There are only two moral sides that hold any weight in this argument, you either a) want every country to get rid of their nuclear stockpile without any leniency or favouritism and without accepting a status quo or b) you accept every nation's right to acquire a deterrent which could protect them from an invasion, whether you consider them to be the "enemy" or not is irrelevant.

Allowing the status quo while acknowledging that certain countries use this advantage in a way that secures them resources and guarantees their dominance and future stability in world affairs is hypocritical because you would deem it unethical if the tables were flipped and it was countries near you who were being invaded.

Would you seriously accept the status quo if in a few years, for example, only Russia and China had nuclear weapons (hypothetical of course) and were invading countries for x reason knowing that your country would not be invaded if it had nuclear weapons? Exactly.


So basically you think that if I support say the UK's nuclear deterrent, a democratic fairly liberal nation that is incredibly stable I should also support North Korea's? With no regard for the clear differences in freedom or stability of these two nations? When it comes to nuclear weapons we should act as if all nations are the same? Despite that fact that this is not the case and some nations we more reliable as it were when it comes ot this than other nations?

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