Despite my earlier fear a few months ago I think the risks of a hard landing have reduced albeit things do look sluggish primarily because the commodity cycle at the moment should benefit the US consumer, Shale output should also remain stable. The US is probably fine before at least 2021.

The global economy will still be facing strong dollar pressure on debt and the likes of the UK and Japan will remain subdued.

The main recession risk looks to be in Europe where the ECB has withdrawn QE and Italian banks are already kneeling over. A shallow recession is more likely than anything major though.

Reply 8146

username2837176

Been looking at Small MCAP stocks for several months and my pick for 2019 is Live Company Group (LVCG).

LVCG is a global live kids entertainment and education business using lego. The company was taken over by David Ciclitira in Dec 2017 and throughout 2018 the business grew rapidly acquiring their content producer, Bright Bricks and entering new markets.
There will be 120 events by 2020, across >50 cities on 4 continents. Current m/c - £40m.

David owns 41% of the shares. The free float is 11%

On 14th January David Ciclitira (DC) gave an interview with Vox Markets:
- He said that he’s been having partnership discussions for Europe shows. Focus on building business in mainstream Europe.
- Brickosaurs is a BLOCKBUSTER, where over 100,000 visitors are expected.
- All projects are booked out till 2020.
- Touring and Zoos side is where the significant growth is. DC says expects Zoo contracts to DOUBLE in 2019.
- NEW U.K. shows.
- This year is all about building the business and show the numbers to shareholders.
- He’s “confident” with research note coming in Q1.
- DC says 2019 will be “good year for shareholders”.
- Full Business Plan till 2022.
- New BOD announcements in next 6 weeks.

I think a big company will take over the business in the next 24 months! DYOR

Reply 8147

bigmansouf

Original post by mattymoo432

it is a very good business - I would liketo see how it does this year in Asia.The business can be an example of value investing.

Reply 8148

username2837176

Original post by bigmansouf

it is a very good business - I would liketo see how it does this year in Asia.The business can be an example of value investing.

I am particularly excited for its Zoos. Currently have 7 looking to double them in 2019. Known as blockbuster events. Germany great market for that.

Asia is a major market for the business. Did you see the RNS from the middle of last year about the China 20 city tour? 1,000,000 visitors are expected to visit.

Japan and South Korea also doing really well. Here’s a paragraph from RNS last year. “LVCG can also announce that it has secured a 5-year licensing deal with Cross Media Group of Seoul, South Korea, for the exclusive right to open and operate BRICKLIVE branded kids cafes in China. Five are expected to be launched in 2018, rising to 30 by the end of 2019 and 100 by the end of 2022.”

The profit margins are high because LVCG supply the content and license it out - once the exhibits are built, they can have life spans of 10+ years, and thus the only ongoing cost is the cost of transporting exhibits between events. Also, In some agreements LVCG also receive a share of the events overall profits. Also, there are revenues from Kids Cafe and Merchandise at the shows.

i think BOD is top class. There’s a Microsoft director. Lots of connections to Minecraft too. I suspect LVCG will enter the digital market too.

Reply 8149

username2837176

2 LVCG RNSs out today. A partnership with AWC for shows in Germany - which can extend across Europe. And a premium placing with warrants locked in, to accelerate growth - even further.

The chairman David Ciclitira just gave an interview with Vox Markets - here’s some of the key points:

Vox interview 11th Feb 2019

1. Germany second largest market for lego after the USA
2. Bright Bricks facility has been built in Germany - to Brexit proof business
3. Zoos generate £50k a month per set. 80% profit. That’s £4.32m estimated profit a year - with 9 sets out. Massive.
4. More USA shows are in the pipeline.
5. Talks with Monaco for more shows - the previous show had double the expected visitors.
6. 9 March the European tour starts in Cologne.
7. Bricks in space launching in the summer.
8. AWC promoting top events already including Harry Potter. Not just our German partners but also for the rest of Europe.
9. 60 Bricklive events in 2019.
10. In research note there will be EBITDA figures projected for next 3 years.
11. Europe and U.K. represents 20% of the business.
12. DC has 3 personal targets to achieve by summer.
13. Existing builds are fully booked till Q4 2020 - explains why the placing was necessary

Reply 8150

bigmansouf

Original post by mattymoo432

this is a simply but very good business whilst people are trying to create the next unicorn this company has a simple business and executes it very well

Reply 8151

username2837176

Original post by bigmansouf

this is a simply but very good business whilst people are trying to create the next unicorn this company has a simple business and executes it very well

Are you invested in it?

Reply 8152

bigmansouf

Original post by mattymoo432

Are you invested in it?

no but i may

Reply 8153

username2837176

Superb David Cilitra interview on Proactive investors today - talking about Live Company Group LVCG
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D23UovPnuCs

Reply 8154

hello5922

Hi, any recommendations for someone who wants to learn about financial markets and how to invest? Any book recommendations or resources that you have found useful for beginners?

Reply 8155

dakofsta

I'm currently reading One up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch and I think it is a brilliant book

Original post by hello5922

Hi, any recommendations for someone who wants to learn about financial markets and how to invest? Any book recommendations or resources that you have found useful for beginners?

Reply 8156

hello5922

Thank you! I’ll give it a read

Original post by dakofsta

I'm currently reading One up on Wall Street by Peter Lynch and I think it is a brilliant book

Reply 8157

Thomas2597

I am a current stock trader for my own personal finances. I have done extensive research on various companies that may be excellent companies to invest in due to their creative product engineers. Innovation is crucial in long-term success for the company. Cash on hand typically translates to prosperity as well. Two companies that I see competing with Apple or Amazon would be, Samsung and Walmart. Samsung will continue to be Apple's primary competitor because of their already established customer base. As goes for Walmart, the owner is born within a family that is worth billions. The family will continue to use their money to ensure that Walmart is still a household name for millions of Americans.

Reply 8158

username1751857

I think it might be a good time to hold on investing in the banking industry since we're definitely due a recession. ONS estimated negative growth in December, January is was back into the positive region - a lot of people saying the no-deal preparations is what kept us going.