[Kauto Star]

Interesting stuff.

[Jonpickles]

Whats everyones take on the Derby/Oaks, hehe I know we have concluded that the Majority of us like the Jumps more! But will be interesting to see what people think.

I was at York on Dante day and Cape Blanco looked completely unfit, and had a bigger belly than me so thats saying something!, was really impressed that he won the race since he was the first i crossed out! If he runs in the derby it would be interesting.

[Paper_planes]

(Original post by Jonpickles)
Whats everyones take on the Derby/Oaks, hehe I know we have concluded that the Majority of us like the Jumps more! But will be interesting to see what people think.

I was at York on Dante day and Cape Blanco looked completely unfit, and had a bigger belly than me so thats saying something!, was really impressed that he won the race since he was the first i crossed out! If he runs in the derby it would be interesting.

i don't really follow flat racing that much
i tend to think that flat horses are looking a chub compared to what they used to. I prefer jump cond. horses, and that's what i try to get mine (obvo not racehorses) looking like unless they are of a build it won't suit

[Teofilo]

I really liked Jan Vermeer's performance at the Curragh, but all of the talk from Ireland is that they are seriously sweet on St. Nicholas Abbey.

Rumoush will be tough beat in the Oaks if she gets the trip. Jim Bolger's filly Akdarena looks a rapidly improving sort who should improve for the step up - looks a nice bit of value at 14's. I much prefer flat racing btw, though I do follow the plodders as well...

[Kauto Star]

I am going to have a detailed look at these races when I have some time on Friday. I was very impressed by Aviate, although her trial was perhaps not the strongest.

I haven't seen all of the Derby/Oaks trials yet though.

[Kauto Star]

(Original post by Kauto Star)
I am going to have a detailed look at these races when I have some time on Friday. I was very impressed by Aviate, although her trial was perhaps not the strongest.

I haven't seen all of the Derby/Oaks trials yet though.

NEWS FLASH! Tom Queally will ride Aviate after working both her and Timepiece.

Henry Cecil said he felt Timepiece was a better horse than his Derby hope Bullet Train, so this decision is high praise indeed for Aviate.

[Paper_planes]

meh I'm informed St Nicholas Abbey
but i don't even know what he's running in and if he's another Dunguib or not.

I don't understand the flaaat

[Jonpickles]

Select Committee has been declared for Beverley on Saturday!

He's running without the visor this week, and ever since they have been over watering the far side of the track, his high draw will be a hindrance. Just a watching brief this weekend I think. Ian Brennan a good young lad claiming 5 off though.

[Kauto Star]

Good luck for Saturday, Jon.

Ian Brennan is a talented rider f'sure

[Jonpickles]

Thanks, think we will need a lot of luck!, Hate going to Beverley, its such an akward place to get to. Ill be hoping he also takes up his entry at Redcar on tuesday, thats a 5 min drive from my house hah!

[Kauto Star]

Kauto Star's Investec Oaks Preview

Well, that was an intense four hours! Here is my horse-by-horse preview of those declared to run at the latest forfeit stage. I'll tackle the Derby later this weekend.

AKDARENA (Jim Bolger)

Improved significantly for quicker ground and the application of blinkers, Akdarena still swishes her tail under pressure but isn't ungenuine. Akdarena was an impressive all-the-way winner of the Blue Wind Stakes at Naas latest, but was in receipt of over a stone from most of her rivals. This devalues the form somewhat and one has to doubt she could make all against classier opposition.

AVIATE (Henry Cecil)

Unbeaten, having showed an impressive turn-of-foot in two one-mile races as a juvenile. Aviate added to her record when winning the Musidora Stakes, an established trial for the Oaks. A head was the winning margin, but that did not tell the whole story. Aviate was trapped behind rivals and denied a run at crucial stages, before responding immediately to a gap on the rail in the final furlong. Tom Queally will ride. He prefers Aviate to Timepiece, despite the latter having "worked all over Bullet Train" in recent homework. High praise indeed.

AWE INSPIRING (Aidan O'Brien)

Won a maiden at the fourth attempt when stepped up to ten furlongs. That form is obviously weak and needs to be improved for Awe Inspiring be a contender for the Oaks. She has a very low, scuttling action which may explain her previous defeats in heavy ground. This may also be her downfall at Epsom as the undulations of the track aren't certain to suit.

BIKINI BABE (Mark Johnston)

Bikini Babe looks exposed (haha!) as short of Oaks standard. Beaten four lengths by Aviate at York latest.

CABARET (Aidan O'Brien)

A small, slender filly who was useful in her juvenile season as a Group 3 winner. She was also considered good enough for the Prix Marcel Boussac but her saddle slipped early on. Cabaret made her comeback at a time when the Ballydoyle runners were not performing and continued the trend. She was 7/8 behind Aviate. Improvement is certain but it would need to be enormous to reverse the form.

CEILIDH HOUSE (Ralph Beckett)

Despite being very green, Ceilidh House was a very taking winner of a Leicester maiden last year. She furthered the favourable impression on her reappearance in the Lingfield Oaks Trial, when third to Dyna Waltz. She matched strides with Timepiece down the straight before both were overhauled by the winner. Both rivals had a fitness advantage over Ceilidh House, who could conceivably improve to become the better horse.

Her race career to date is very similar to the trainer's Oaks winner: Look Here.

CHAMPAGNELIFESTYLE (Barry Hills)

The winner of a hot maiden on debut, Champagnelifestyle clearly has speed not obvious in her stamina-laden pedigree. Her comeback third in the Chester Oaks was not particularly encouraging given the lack of genuine group race form in that contest. The thoroughly-exposed Myplacelater was not far behind and this form needs improvement.

FAMOUS (Aidan O'Brien)

Despite being slow to find her best form, Famous was a regular on the track at two years. She managed a second to Termagant in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, before further improvement to be fourth in the Goffs Million Mile. Recently tailed-off in the Irish Guineas and massive stamina doubts.

GERTRUDE BELL (John Gosden)

Another to win her maiden at the fourth attempt, Gertrude Bell followed this with a win in the Cheshire Oaks. Her attitude was commendable but the bunch-finish of exposed performers devalues the form somewhat.

GILE NA GREINE (Jim Bolger)

A superb third in the 1000 Guineas, Gile Na Greine was second-favourite for The Oaks until flopping in the Irish equivalent. She must be a doubtful runner now.

HIBAAYEB (Saeed bin Suroor)

Hibaayeb won the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at two for previous trainer Clive Brittain. That race was a muddling contest which suited her, based on the speedy distaff side of her pedigree. Godolphin acquired her privately thereafter and she promptly disappointed in the 1000 Guineas. Her showing in the Prix Saint-Alary was more encouraging but her prominent running style tested her stamina to its limit and she faded to be third after going clear early in the straight. The Oaks trip could be a bridge too far on that evidence.

ISABELLA GEM (Clive Cox)

Yet to produce any form worthy of consideration here.

JIRA (Clive Brittain)

As above, major stamina doubt also.

LADY LUPUS (Aidan O'Brien)

Yet another without a chance of troubling the main contenders, destroyed by Akdarena at Naas most recently. Lady Lupus will probably be leading the Ballydoyle pacemaking contingent.

LILLIE LANGTRY (Aidan O'Brien)

Perhaps Lillie Langtry brings the most powerful juvenile form to the race, as the winner of a Group 3, Group 2 and the very valuable Timeform Fillies' 800 on Champions' Day. Crucially all of these were only up to a mile - and with such a miler's pedigree she does not appeal as an Oaks bet. Furthermore, she ran in the Irish 1000 Guineas on Sunday (unlucky fifth).

MARIE DE MEDICI (Mark Johnston)

With solid form to her credit at two, Marie De Medici has consistently justified her rating of 104, which would be a way short of Oaks class. With race fitness advantage, she benefited from a classic Frankie Dettori front-running ride when stealing the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket earlier this month. Red Fantasy and Miss Starlight (subsequently well-beaten) and Principal Role (short of fitness) were the nearest victims, who let the form down.

MEEZNAH (David Lanigan)

The impressive winner of a 4-runner Newmarket maiden on her seasonal return. Weak form of course but could be absolutely anything. She is not entered in any major fillies/mares races later in the season which suggests she isn't a superstar.

MISS MIRACLE (Clive Cox)

Modest maiden, rated 71, absolute last in Cheshire Oaks. No thanks.

PERFECT VISION (Clive Cox)

Beaten in a handicap from a mark of 70. That tells you all you need to know.

REMEMBER WHEN (Aidan O'Brien)

Despite her pedigree giving some cause for optimism regarding stamina (close relation to Dylan Thomas), she is not the most obvious Oaks type. She was a staying-on fourth to Bethrah in the Irish 1000 Guineas, or at least that is what I thought at first. It seemed that she closed to go alongside Anna Selai and kept closing to the line. On review, it seems that she was outstayed after getting alongside the principals. Again, stamina doubtful for this.

RUMOUSH (Marcus Tregoning)

Someone tell me why this horse is second-favourite please. She was a good winner of the Feilden Stakes, with Timepiece (not fully fit) behind. Rumoush then progressed to be seventh in the 1000 Guineas, which was admirable as she was on the wrong side of the track with Music Show. As with so many, stamina doubts remain, although her pedigree contains Nashwan, Nayef and Unfuwain to create some optimism. Rumoush is a definite contender but surely her price does not reflect value given her achievements so far.

SAJJHAA (Michael Jarvis)

Won a maiden by seven lengths on debut. Could be anything but has some very encouraging race entries. It should be remembered that the trainer produced Hala Bek to go very close in the Derby after just one run, so Sajjhaa cannot be ignored.

SRDA (Clive Brittain)

Beaten in a handicap from a rating of 86. Not good enough.

TERMAGANT (Kevin Prendergast)

Would have been a lively contender but now runs in the Pretty Polly.

TIMEPIECE (Henry Cecil)

Before the emergence of Aviate, this was seen as Henry Cecil's main filly for the Investec Oaks. While she has done little wrong in her starts this season, there has been a real absence of "WOW factor" in her performances. With fitness assured after a run behind Rumoush, her defeat to Dyna Waltz at Lingfield was disappointing. Granted, the pace may have been too quick, but an exceptional filly may have still scrambled home. Tom Queally deserts her for Aviate.

CONCLUSION

1st - Aviate
2nd - Ceilidh House
3rd - Sajjhaa

Your comments greatly appreciated!

[Kauto Star]

Saturday Specials - 29/05/10

3:00 Haydock - Barshiba NAP
3:20 Newmarket - Excellent Guest
4:45 Haydock - Dayia
7:20 Stratford - Herons Well
2:45 Newmarket - Ransom Note
3:55 Newmarket - Red Jazz
2:15 Newmarket - Ameer
7:55 Stratford - Roulez Cool

[Jonpickles]

(Original post by Kauto Star)
Saturday Specials - 29/05/10

3:00 Haydock - Barshiba NAP
3:20 Newmarket - Excellent Guest
4:45 Haydock - Dayia
7:20 Stratford - Herons Well
2:45 Newmarket - Ransom Note
3:55 Newmarket - Red Jazz
2:15 Newmarket - Ameer
7:55 Stratford - Roulez Cool

Nice write up on the oaks , and good luck with your tips today

I'm just getting ready to set off! Argh 7/1...pressure

[Kauto Star]

Thanks and all the best today Jon, fingers firmly crossed for Select!

He gets five stars in the Timeform preview, so let's hope he doesn't feel the weight of expectation.

[Kauto Star]

Ooooooh so close with Select Committee, unlucky Jon!

The price came right in near the off. Were the "Which Bits Mine Syndicate" lumping on?

[Jonpickles]

(Original post by Kauto Star)
Ooooooh so close with Select Committee, unlucky Jon!

The price came right in near the off. Were the "Which Bits Mine Syndicate" lumping on?

hehe yeah was a massive gamble. Just got home! None of my money im afraid i never actually bet on him haha.
He shall be taking up his entry for Tuesday at Redcar if he comes out of this race ok , will know tommorow for sure.

[Teofilo]

Nice work Kauto Star!

No strong opinion on the Oaks this year. I'd be inclined to think the Musidora form looks slightly suspect on the whole and probably not as strong as either the Feilden or much less the Guineas. I'd be slightly concerned about the trip for Rumoush, but you could argue that is factored into her price as she has strong credentials otherwise.

Heard few seriously bad vibes from home about St Nicholas Abbey this week (Murtagh wasn't happy with his work at all apparently). I think it's a case of either showing up with Murtagh taking the ride or not showing up at all (Jan Vermeer would be surely the mount then). Was told Cape Blanco will go to France.

[Kauto Star]

Thanks Teofilo. I am starting to think that it is a very poor Oaks this year. There are no really dominant contenders...even the maiden winner Sajjhaa is as short as 7/1 somehow! :O Maybe something will produce a stunning performance on the day.

I've just seen a replay of the Criterium International. Jan Vermeer was really impressive and just as good as St Nicholas Abbey's RP Trophy in my eyes. Interestingly, he made all the running to suggest they were making use of his stamina. Those vibes aren't good at all about SNA, although it is unusual for Ballydoyle to talk down one of their horses like this. Midas Touch made him look slow apparently.

[Ataloss]

(Original post by Kauto Star)
Thanks Teofilo. I am starting to think that it is a very poor Oaks this year. There are no really dominant contenders...even the maiden winner Sajjhaa is as short as 7/1 somehow! :O Maybe something will produce a stunning performance on the day.

I've just seen a replay of the Criterium International. Jan Vermeer was really impressive and just as good as St Nicholas Abbey's RP Trophy in my eyes. Interestingly, he made all the running to suggest they were making use of his stamina. Those vibes aren't good at all about SNA, although it is unusual for Ballydoyle to talk down one of their horses like this. Midas Touch made him look slow apparently.

Thanks for great Oaks preview. I agree that Aviate is the most likely winner and a worthy favourite. To be fair I think you were harsh on Rumoush - I don't see much reason personally why Timepiece will reverse the form with her from the Fielden (I had backed Timepiece in the Fielden) and I think Rumoush is the main threat to Aviate.

I can't see any way St Nicholas Abbey can win the Derby. (watch that sentence haunt me).

[Kauto Star]

Yes, you could be right there Ataloss. Maybe I was overly dismissive of Rumoush, and that effort on the far side in the Guineas doesn't look too shabby now Music Show has gone close in the Irish 1000.

I'm not going to touch the Derby until I know what Murtagh rides now.