[Arsey]

EDIT - UPDATED NOW UPTO Jan 13

I am asked a lot about past boundaries

Here is the lot!

Jan 13 Arsey's estimation review

Jan 13 Module - actual for 80ums - my guess for 80ums

C1 - 58 - 59
C2 - 64 - 67
C3 - 62 - 59 (surprised, I thought this was a tougher paper)
C4 - 61 - 63
M1 - 64 - 65
S1 - 61 - 59 (I am surprised they are so high given the harsh mark scheme)
D1 - 62 - 64 (I said it would be low so went for the previous lowest Jan mark)

soooo, I didn't get any right. Average was 2 out.




EDIT - I have created the attached spreadsheet. This is NOT breaking any copyright laws

[redfanatic]

perfect! thanks alot! now i can confirm to myself that i wont get an A

[redfanatic]

(Original post by Arsey)
I am asked a lot about past boundaries

Here is the lot!

Arsey, in your opinion, what do you think the raw mark grade boundaries will be approximately for this set of exams, for C3 C4 and S1?

[thecityscape]

Cheers bro, i've already repped but would rep again.

[Arsey]

(Original post by redfanatic)
Arsey, in your opinion, what do you think the raw mark grade boundaries will be approximately for this set of exams, for C3 C4 and S1?

I can not remember what I said at the time but for 80UMS I would say about

C1 - 58
C2 - 64
C3 - 63
C4 - 58
S1 - 57
M2 - 59

[Smeh]

(Original post by Arsey)
I can not remember what I said at the time but for 80UMS I would say about

C1 - 58
C2 - 64
C3 - 63
C4 - 58
S1 - 57
M2 - 59

Thank you!
This may sound like a silly question but for 90 UMS is it always midway between 80 and 100UMS?

[Arsey]

On the whole UMS thing...

No one can confidently predict UMS because they will be decided by how well candidates perform on the paper. It could be the case that I think it is a pretty straight forward paper but a large proportion of candidates do terribly. What is more likely is that I think it is more difficult than a typical paper but candidates do better than expected because they are better prepared, more past papers etc.

Edexcel will NOT make the boundaries higher because of the A* award. They only set boundaries for A and E. However, the boundaries may rise slightly because the most able candidates will be taking C4 more seriously. I have had students in the past already have accumulated enough marks for an A before even taking C4.

However, the change to 2 tier Maths could reduce the boundaries in the AS modules. I believe it is now much easier to get an A on new 2 tier GCSE; A-Level numbers in current Y12 are the highest for over 20 years; so the reality is the average Mathematical ability of all current Y12 students will have dropped since general the extra candidates are less able students who wouldn't have normally selected A-Level Maths. Also, I think all students will be slightly less prepared for AS Mathematics as they will have experience less of a focus on A/A* questions due to the structure of the new exams.


That said, I will mainly base my predictions on how difficult I believe the paper to be in comparison to previous papers and then looking at past boundaries.

If you check out those made in Jan, they were pretty close on all of them apart from C3 which I thought was very hard in comparison and I thought the boundary for an A would be under 55 (it was 59).

In the main A-Level papers I thought

S1 - significantly more difficult than normal

C1/C3/C4 - slightly more difficult than normal

M1 - standard

C2 - easier than normal

Therefore, for an A 80 UMS I think the following mark out of 75 will be required....

C1 - 58
C2 - 64
C3 - 63
C4 - 58
S1 - 57
M1 - 59

Roll on Aug...

[Increase]

(Original post by Arsey)
In the main A-Level papers I thought

S1 - significantly more difficult than normal

C1/C3/C4 - slightly more difficult than normal

M1 - standard

C2 - easier than normal

Agree with you there. I only sat S1, C1 and C2, but I had the same ideas about difficulty as you.

I estimate : upper bound
c1 may - 61/75 - 81%
c2 june - 65/75 - 87%
s1 may - 41/75 - 55%

upper estimate 75%

lower bound
c1 may - 51/75 - 68%
c2 june - 55/75 - 74%
s1 may - 31/75 - 42%

lower estimate - 62%

overall
between 62%-75%
avg 69%

between C-B
likely high C

Thats being generous. Looks like C1 and S1 resit again tho. Knew I would resit S1, was solid.

[Arsey]

Maths / Further Maths


Core 1-4 has to be in A2 Maths

FP units have to be in Further Maths

Applied units can be in either with one exception - if an applied A2 unit is put into Maths then the same applied AS unit also has to be in Maths. For example, if you want to use D2 in Maths you MUST also use D1 in Maths; you can not use D2 in Maths and then D1 in Further.

Edexcel will automatically shift your units around to give you the best combination of grades. Priority is given to Maths though; however, they don't try to make Maths have the highest possible UMS; they will try to shift spare marks over to FM once 480 is reached.

180 is required from C3+C4 for an A* in Maths (+480 overall)

270 is required from the best! 3 A2 modules for an A* in FM (+480 overall)

You can not use FP1, S1, D1 or M1 to make up the 270, everything else could be included.

[Increase]

I don't quite follow.

C1-C4 = core main maths.
D1/2, S1-5, M1-5 etc = applied?

So in Year 12 I do for AS maths C1, C2 and S1 and I get for example 80/85/65 UMS respectively, then in A2 for C3, C4 and D1 I get 85/75/95 UMS. Does that mean I get an A*.

80 + 85 + 65 + 85 + 75 + 95 = 485 / 600 UMS

But from C3 and C4 I only get 150.

Does that mean I HAVE to get 180 from C3 and C4 regardless of what I get in other modules to achieve an A* ?

[Arsey]

(Original post by Increase)
I don't quite follow.

C1-C4 = core main maths.
D1/2, S1-5, M1-5 etc = applied?

So in Year 12 I do for AS maths C1, C2 and S1 and I get for example 80/85/65 UMS respectively, then in A2 for C3, C4 and D1 I get 85/75/95 UMS. Does that mean I get an A*.

80 + 85 + 65 + 85 + 75 + 95 = 485 / 600 UMS

But from C3 and C4 I only get 150.

Does that mean I HAVE to get 180 from C3 and C4 regardless of what I get in other modules to achieve an A* ?

for the A* you need 480 total and at least 180 of the total must come from C3 and C4

[Kudos92]

(Original post by Arsey)
C1 - 58
C2 - 64
C3 - 63
C4 - 58
S1 - 57
M1 - 59

So 85% In C2 gets you 80 UMS? Damn.

[KY729]

if i get 99 (ums) in C3,how can i get an A*?
do i hv to get 90% or above in C4??

C1-99
C2-95
M1-93
C3-99
C4-?
S1-?

[Banburyhammer]

(Original post by Arsey)
Maths / Further Maths


Core 1-4 has to be in A2 Maths

FP units have to be in Further Maths

Applied units can be in either with one exception - if an applied A2 unit is put into Maths then the same applied AS unit also has to be in Maths. For example, if you want to use D2 in Maths you MUST also use D1 in Maths; you can not use D2 in Maths and then D1 in Further.

Edexcel will automatically shift your units around to give you the best combination of grades. Priority is given to Maths though; however, they don't try to make Maths have the highest possible UMS; they will try to shift spare marks over to FM once 480 is reached.

180 is required from C3+C4 for an A* in Maths (+480 overall)

270 is required from the best! 3 A2 modules for an A* in FM (+480 overall)

You can not use FP1, S1, D1 or M1 to make up the 270, everything else could be included.

Sorry being a week or so late, but what you are saying that my worst applied Lvl 1 modules will be put into A level Maths as long as the UMS totals >480, and that would allow my superior marks to be pushed into A level Further Maths?

[Banburyhammer]

(Original post by KY729)
if i get 99 (ums) in C3,how can i get an A*?
do i hv to get 90% or above in C4??

C1-99
C2-95
M1-93
C3-99
C4-?
S1-?

I think its 180 aggregate UMS, so you would only need 81 UMS from C4.

[Arsey]

(Original post by Arsey)
I can not remember what I said at the time but for 80UMS I would say about

C1 - 58
C2 - 64
C3 - 63
C4 - 58
S1 - 57
M1 - 59

okay boundaries are

C1 - 59
C2 - 62
C3 - 62
C4 - 60
S1 - 55
M1 - 61

so I was at most 2 out on all of them, not too bad.

[Ultimate1]

(Original post by Arsey)
okay boundaries are

C1 - 59
C2 - 62
C3 - 62
C4 - 60
S1 - 55
M1 - 61

so I was at most 2 out on all of them, not too bad.

What I don't understand is that usually when the boundaries are 62 the 90 UMS is usually at 69 but this year for C3 it says 68 so will this be true for each module that has 62 as it's A boundary? Thanks!

[The_wise]

Where can we get grade boundaries for the OCR modules done in June 2010??

[Xtian]

(Original post by Arsey)
okay boundaries are

C1 - 59
C2 - 62
C3 - 62
C4 - 60
S1 - 55
M1 - 61

so I was at most 2 out on all of them, not too bad.

Well done.

[Mc^3]

(Original post by The_wise)
Where can we get grade boundaries for the OCR modules done in June 2010??

here: http://www.ocr.org.uk/download/admin...und_jun_10.pdf