[MxSK]

Wow, check this out:

Enduring America who live blog iran domestic developments have done some good investigative journalism to put two and two together and i don't think this has been reported by anyone or anywhere else.

It's about the "israeli spy" who was hanged today for allegedly assassinating a scientist in 2010. But EA has put together a convincing argument that this guy might actually be a professional kick boxer who was initially called out to beat protestors in 2009 but out on a kickboxing competition in Baku told the US embassy there about what he and other martial arts groups had been asked to do.

It goes beyond just rumours and talk:
http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/...became-is.html

[Aj12]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/0...84F0F420120516
China is prodding North Korea to stop their planned nuclear test.

[Aj12]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...84F1IJ20120516
US senate looking at new Iran sanctions

[Aj12]

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...text|FRONTPAGE

US military ready for a strike on Iran if diplomacy fails. Apparently the operation has been fully planned. Not really news though, I imagine the pentagon just dusted off some older plans and updated them.

[MxSK]

(Original post by Aj12)
http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...text|FRONTPAGE

US military ready for a strike on Iran if diplomacy fails. Apparently the operation has been fully planned. Not really news though, I imagine the pentagon just dusted off some older plans and updated them.

Or.... the plans have always been in place and consistently reviewed for at least the last 30 years? Anything less woud be pretty poor form...

Potential Real Development:

Diplomats tell The Associated Press that the head of the U.N. nuclear agency will fly to Tehran next week to seal an agreement that would allow his organization to resume a probe of suspicions that Iran may have worked on developing nuclear weapons.

One of two diplomats who discussed the trip said that International Atomic Energy Agency chief Yukiya Amano was leaving Sunday. Both demanded anonymity Friday because their information was confidential.

The trip is a strong indication that an agreement has been reached after more than four years of refusal by Iran to allow the agency access to sites, information and officials it seeks for its probe.

http://www.centredaily.com/2012/05/1...ncy-chief.html

[Aj12]

(Original post by MxSK)
Or.... the plans have always been in place and consistently reviewed for at least the last 30 years? Anything less woud be pretty poor form...

Potential Real Development:

http://www.centredaily.com/2012/05/1...ncy-chief.html

Wonder how this plays into it
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...lear-site.html

Supposedly they have been cleaning up nuclear sites

[MxSK]

(Original post by Aj12)
Wonder how this plays into it
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...lear-site.html

Supposedly they have been cleaning up nuclear sites

That's re-hashed old news. Don't know if you remember but there were reports a few months ago that "satellite photos showed activity at parchin" and some suggested this could be a clean-up. The photos were leaked to David Albright last week and he wrote a report about his analysis of the photos which was reported by AP and Reuters and then presented by some newspapers as a new development.

If you look at the photos, you see the flowing water... it could mean a clean-up but at the same time it could be anything......

Also, the telegraph report says

The IAEA believes that a large explosives containment chamber was installed at the complex in 2000 for explosives experiments that are “strong indicators of possible weapons development.”

Yet they visited the site twice in 2005 and reported no suspicious activity. Doesn't that seem odd?

The significance of Amano going to Tehran on Sunday is that hes said in the past that he would not go to Tehran except for "concrete results".

[Aj12]

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...text|FRONTPAGE

China to build two more aircraft carriers according to Taiwan

[Lord Hysteria]

(Original post by Aj12)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...84F1IJ20120516
US senate looking at new Iran sanctions

I read a brief Daily Telegraph piece where the Iranian foreign minister threatens to inflate the price of oil ... are they bluffing?

[Aj12]

(Original post by Lord Hysteria)
I read a brief Daily Telegraph piece where the Iranian foreign minister threatens to inflate the price of oil ... are they bluffing?

I'd say MxSK is the better person to ask about anything Iranian related.

(Original post by MxSK)
qfa

[MxSK]

(Original post by Lord Hysteria)
I read a brief Daily Telegraph piece where the Iranian foreign minister threatens to inflate the price of oil ... are they bluffing?

Short of sinking an oil tanker/causing general disruption in the Strait of Hormuz (which i think is unlikely, they made threats, then reportedly the US sent a blunt message and the iranians shut their mouths and even backtracked saying that they wouldn't do anything), i don't think theres anything they can actually DO to raise the price of oil. They could start threatening of doing such things again to raise it slightly as we saw in january, but it comes back down once things settle so...

What the iranian officials usually say now is that the sanctions themselves are what is going to cause the the price of oil to increase.

See here for example:
Iran finance minister tells CNN: 'Rest assured' record oil prices over nuclear sanctions
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/20/wo...ear/index.html

Iran's finance minister believes oil prices could rise as high as $160 a barrel thanks to sanctions over its nuclear program, a prediction that comes just as the chief of the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency headed to Tehran on Sunday for high-level talks.
"We must pay close attention when we speak of oil revenues and sanctions against oil sales, who are the winners and the losers of such sanctions?" Shamseddin Hosseini told CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS" in an interview that airs Sunday.
"Indeed, it is difficult. But not just for Iran. And we can all rest assured that there will be a considerable increase in international oil market prices. Now, is this the best approach?"

I've read reports of "experts" suggesting that hes right, and similarly "experts" saying that the price won't go up at all. So i guess you can only wait and see how it turns out.

Also, lately iranian officials have been admitting that their oil exports had been reduced because of sanctions, but they claim that, despite that, their oil revenue actually increased because of the price. (Don't know how much to believe them). They also claim that they have $150 billion dollars cash/gold in reserve which could very well be true and as such claim that they could survive "2-3 years" without oil exports (hard to believe).

[TheMJCG]

(Original post by MxSK)
Short of sinking an oil tanker/causing general disruption in the Strait of Hormuz (which i think is unlikely, they made threats, then reportedly the US sent a blunt message and the iranians shut their mouths and even backtracked saying that they wouldn't do anything), i don't think theres anything they can actually DO to raise the price of oil. They could start threatening of doing such things again to raise it slightly as we saw in january, but it comes back down once things settle so...

What the iranian officials usually say now is that the sanctions themselves are what is going to cause the the price of oil to increase.

See here for example:
Iran finance minister tells CNN: 'Rest assured' record oil prices over nuclear sanctions
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/05/20/wo...ear/index.html


I've read reports of "experts" suggesting that hes right, and similarly "experts" saying that the price won't go up at all. So i guess you can only wait and see how it turns out.

Also, lately iranian officials have been admitting that their oil exports had been reduced because of sanctions, but they claim that, despite that, their oil revenue actually increased because of the price. (Don't know how much to believe them). They also claim that they have $150 billion dollars cash/gold in reserve which could very well be true and as such claim that they could survive "2-3 years" without oil exports (hard to believe).

I dont see what the US can tell Iran to make them "Shut their mouth." Iran is in a lot of pressure due to the sanctions, therefore I think Iran would respond in any way they could to a new set of sanctions. They dont have a choice they will have to somehow increase their revenue by increasing prices since less quantitiy is being bought. About that 150 billion in reserve, if I remember correctly it was just a few months ago ahmadinajad announced the reserve is empty and that lead to a huge fall in the Iranian Rial. I think a new set of sanctions are unnecessary, especially now where the P5+1 are trying to negotiate.

[MxSK]

Amano:
IAEA chief says he’s reached deal with Iran on nuclear probes
http://www.timesofisrael.com/iaea-ch...uclear-probes/

I've never seen a picture of Soltanieh without his stupid smile.

I'd be on the lookout for a spoiler from any direction; iranian, israeli or american. Very possible that factions with vested interests would do anything to prevent a deal being struck, its happened many times before.

[MxSK]

Meet “Flame”, The Massive Spy Malware Infiltrating Iranian Computers
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2012/05/flame/

if the report is true then this is pretty impressive and a big deal. its more of a general wide-range spyware with the aim of getting onto any and all computers that it possibly can (as you can see with the range of countries affected, although iran has been infiltrated the most), as opposed to a targeted attack like Stuxnet was... "Flame", as they're calling it, has more of the aim of collecting intelligence long-term.

Kaspersky says this is too complicated and advanced to not have a determined government's resources behind it. They say it will take them 10 years to fully understand because Stuxnet took 6 months and this is "20 times more complicated".

Lol, just of one of its "features" that they've been able to find: it turns on your computers mic to record anyone talking in its vicinity and sends it back through a covert SSL connection....

The title is slightly mislead as it doesn't appear to specifically target iran...
"Iran - 189, Israel-Palestine - 98, Sudan - 92, Syria - 30, Lebanon - 18, Saudi Arabia - 10, Egypt - 5". And Jordan and Turkey just happen to be immune ...
Is it too much of a stretch to go all out and say this is coming from Israel? If it was the US, i would have expected a much wider range of countries. Iraq and Afghanistan for example? Unless they don't believe the taliban uses computers or something... :P

EDIT: Hmm... I have a hypothesis: The caption says "Map showing the number and geographical location of Flame infections detected by Kaspersky Lab on customer machines. Courtesy of Kaspersky" , so the large number for Iran could be easily explained by the fact that Iran has a much much higher number of connected internet users, both by number and by percentage. So as those numbers are only the computers which had a Kaspersky product installed, it would only make sense for iran to have many hits.
OR on the other hand it could still very well be just that iran was the most targeted....


Maybe many already believed this, but anyone with a computer is vulnerable to being spied on.

[Annoying-Mouse]

Meh, it can be either one at this moment. Afghanistan is a impoverished nation and there isn't much computer usage over there. Who would the US target? They were targeting many general fields in the countries mentioned remember. And they already have intelligence going on in Iraq and are monitoring it and don't need much from there. I'm leaning towards Israel based on their relationship with Sudan and they'd seem like they'd benefit more than America would. If it was the US, I would expect them to target China-Russia also.

But, I doubt we're ever going to know for sure who created it and it doesn't really matter. It's not exactly surprising or new to see intelligence agencies develop advanced technology.

[Aj12]

The head of the joint chiefs in the us has said massacres like the recent one in Syria can lead to a military intervention in the country


This was posted from The Student Room's Android App on my LT18i

[Aj12]

http://www.defensenews.com/article/2...text|FRONTPAGE
Another strange development in North Korea. The US has had to deny parachuting special forces into NK due to a misquote

[Brutal Honesty]

Drone strikes counter-productive in Yemen: http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...y.html?hpid=z2

[Rhadamanthus]

I was just reading Tom Freidman's From Beirut to Jerusalem and in it he describes visiting Hama in the aftermath of the massacre there by Bashar Al-Assad's father when he was in power. It's rather amazing, yet stociously frightening, how history repeats itself.

[Brutal Honesty]

(Original post by Rhadamanthus)
I was just reading Tom Freidman's From Beirut to Jerusalem and in it he describes visiting Hama in the aftermath of the massacre there by Bashar Al-Assad's father when he was in power. It's rather amazing, yet stociously frightening, how history repeats itself.

It's also amazing how Rifaat Al-Assad the guy who orchestrated the Hama massacre lived in luxury in Mayfair afterwards. Last I heard he recently moved to Paris.