Peak Oil

What is the general opinion amongst the members of this board about this issue?

Some seem rather apolcalyptic about it:

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

http://www.survivingpeakoil.com/article.php?id=limited_budget

and the U.S. congress seems to have gotten worked up:

http://www.energybulletin.net/4733.html

Yet as ever there are dissenting voices:

http://libertyunbound.com/archive/2005_12/otoole-oil.html

http://www.mises.org/fullstory.aspx?Id=1717

Discuss.

Reply 1

tuna USA

its BS. We have more proven reserves NOW than we did IN 1980. Thats besides that crude oil is only one of many places we can make gasoline from. Now we have tar sand, oil shale, ethanol and biodiesel, plus diesel can be cheaply made from coal. Some geologists are suggesting that Russia might have more oil than the entire middle east, and its just starting to be tapped, while others have done studies that conclude that 2/3 of the world's fossil energy is in tar sand, again something that just recently started to being tapped. Further, an huge advanatge of oil shale (well, I'm talking as an american now) is that 1200 billion of the supposed 1700 billion barrels worth of it are in the US, meaning that we wouldnt have to deal with OPEC nations for it.

Basically... I don't think any reasonable person can believe in any "peak oil" danger. To me, its all media sensationalism. However, even if there was going to be a "peak crude oil extraction point" (which I doubt considering the amount of new oil pumps being built in russia, south america, the far east, and in the deep ocean), just thinking about the issue from an economic standpoint, we see that alternatives will become more competetive and stop oil prices from rising too high. The idea that we're going to have "peak oil" and then all the sudden gas will be $10/gallon is simply moronic because EVEN IF WE HAD ZERO CRUDE OIL LEFT, THERE IS ENOUGH TAR SAND, OIL SHALE, and COAL IN THE WORLD THE PRODUCE ALL THE GASOLINE/DIESEL WE NEED AT PRICES COMPARABLE TO WHAT WE CURRENTLY PAY.

Reply 2

Teehar

indeed, there are clearly other alternatives, but have you considered the time epriod between switching from crude oil to other alternatives. oil will not just suddenly run out, but when it does, the time taken to switch to the other alternatives will mean a time epriod when no feul source is available. even bringing cities to a standstill for a couple of days or weeks would be chaotic and any little oil left during this period would be charged at extoritionate prices due to the scaremongering in the media.

Reply 3

tuna USA

teehar

Firstly you contradicted yourself... since crude oil will take a very long time to run out, we have plenty of time to increase tar sand and oil shale gasoline production.

Secondly, how is where marginal benefit = marginal cost extortionate?

Reply 4

RetiredAccount89

tuna USA

we'd have a damned site more oil if the idiots in the US and europe would simply bring in laws to convert all petrol vehicles to be able to take higher levels of ethanol. your standard engine can run petrol mixed with 5% of ethanol. a conversion to more corrosion resistant seals (quite cheap) means higher mixtures can be used. you actually gain octane ratings which is why higher mixes are used in F1 cars) and its less harmful to the environment, plus saves oil for one of the many other uses we have for it these days.

Reply 5

Stranksy

tuna USA

its BS. We have more proven reserves NOW than we did IN 1980.

The whole reason why America went into Iraq (and Iran very shortly) was to secure the oil. They are fighting over the last scraps of oil, because 60% remains in the Middle East.

We have already gone past the global peak of oil.

Reply 6

banksy

tuna USA

EVEN IF WE HAD ZERO CRUDE OIL LEFT, THERE IS ENOUGH TAR SAND, OIL SHALE, and COAL IN THE WORLD THE PRODUCE ALL THE GASOLINE/DIESEL WE NEED AT PRICES COMPARABLE TO WHAT WE CURRENTLY PAY.

"WE" wouldn't.

Reply 7

Stranksy

Its not as simple as its made out to be. You can't just switch types of production at the drop of a hat. When the oil starts to run seriously low, companies aren't gonna be bothered about preparing for how to cope, they will just rake in as much money as possible then "ride out" whatever comes.

Oh wait, thats already happening, my mistake.

Reply 8

Lemonsoul

Peak oil is already happening, as demand is beginning to outstrip supply, as evidenced by the massive rises in oil prices since a decade ago. Whilst it may take some time for this to have a major effect on our everyday lives, this does not justify ignoring the problem. Anyway, a more serious threat is that of global warming, to which the burning of fossil fuels contributes.

Reply 9

Ferrus

nhdb13

as evidenced by the massive rises in oil prices since a decade ago.

That has been more a demand side (China and Iran particulary) issue than a supply side one however.

Reply 10

Stranksy

Well, Gas prices have gone up sharply, as reported on the news yesterday.

Expect to see similar increases again shortly.

Reply 11

Ferrus

Stranksy

Well, Gas prices have gone up sharply, as reported on the news yesterday.

Expect to see similar increases again shortly.

Central European monopolisation of the pipe lines and Russian skulduggery seem to be the issue as opposed to the raw supply of gas at present however.