[Gob Bluth]

More like 70% then to be fair. That makes it 30% likely, which is in effect 1/3. Same as Liverpool for me. 40% for Chelsea. I don't see how after one good win against Tottenham that you are going to be more likely to get 4th? Seeing as before the game a lot of fans were saying top 4 is out of the question after the Milan and Sunderland games. It's just a general trend. I mean, i'm sure much of the fans would have said around 80% unlikely (20% likely) after being knocked out of 2 cups in a week. All of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal are inconsistent. All are capable. Just i think Chelsea are the most likely to get that bit of luck as they have the best squad of the 3.

(Original post by Overmars)
The club aren't. Kids from Asia on twitter are. Journos have always linked the club to big name signings and for some reason people fall for it. The only big name signing Arsenal have made in a long time is Arshavin.

That's why myself and a lot of Arsenal fans I know don't care too much about finishing 4th. Obviously we want to see the club play at the highest level, but it's hardly the end of the world. You hear garbage like "now Arsenal won't be able to attract top players"...I must've missed the vast number of top players we've signed in recent years.

True, but there is the off chance Wenger sees his youth project failing, and now has money to spend, judging from the big profits. So what better time than to change? Still unlikely i agree though of course.

(Original post by Zerforax)
Gob bluth is part WUM/part blind.

Cool story bro. Rather than people saying pointless things like that, prove me wrong? Sure i can wum sometimes, but it doesn't hurt to say why i'm wrong. And the half blind comment comes from nowhere

[TheInvincibles14]

£20m (Chelsea) but we should keep him. Oxlade-Chamberlain and Walcott as our right-wingers for at least the next 5 years is solid.

[Catilina]

Götze won´t leave Dortmund this summer, they´ve secured their CL spot, and his fee would be too high.

Best case scenario for Arsenal: Cologne are relegated and Podolski becomes a free transfer.

[milkytea]

(Original post by Overmars)
The club aren't. Kids from Asia on twitter are. Journos have always linked the club to big name signings and for some reason people fall for it. The only big name signing Arsenal have made in a long time is Arshavin.

That's why myself and a lot of Arsenal fans I know don't care too much about finishing 4th. Obviously we want to see the club play at the highest level, but it's hardly the end of the world. You hear garbage like "now Arsenal won't be able to attract top players"...I must've missed the vast number of top players we've signed in recent years.

I'm not sure I agree with that. D'you think, for instance, the Ox would've come to Arsenal if we had finished outside of the top 4 last season? Apparently his dad recognised Arsenal as a club which gives youth a chance and would be good for his development, but would that be enough if it wasn't for Europe? Even Arteta stated that the reason he came to us was CL football; didn't he take a wage cut for it? Personally I think that top four is very important for the club even considering our transfer policy. It's not exactly a trophy, but it's very important nonetheless.

[Spoonforknife]

(Original post by Catilina)
Götze won´t leave Dortmund this summer, they´ve secured their CL spot, and his fee would be too high.

Best case scenario for Arsenal: Cologne are relegated and Podolski becomes a free transfer.

I can see Barrios leaving to be fair, or a key player. Sure they can qualify but as far as being sucessful in the CL goes I can see him going to the EPL for that.

[TheInvincibles14]

(Original post by Catilina)
Götze won´t leave Dortmund this summer, they´ve secured their CL spot, and his fee would be too high.

Best case scenario for Arsenal: Cologne are relegated and Podolski becomes a free transfer.

Doesn't Podolski's contract run out in 2013? Why would Podolski become a free transfer if Cologne are relegated?

[Overmars]

(Original post by milkytea)
I'm not sure I agree with that. D'you think, for instance, the Ox would've come to Arsenal if we had finished outside of the top 4 last season? Apparently his dad recognised Arsenal as a club which gives youth a chance and would be good for his development, but would that be enough if it wasn't for Europe? Even Arteta stated that the reason he came to us was CL football; didn't he take a wage cut for it? Personally I think that top four is very important for the club even considering our transfer policy. It's not exactly a trophy, but it's very important nonetheless.

Offering CL football is one of the things you can say about Arsenal. Yes, I think we could've got Oxlade without CL football. We are a big club and we will stay a big club, and it will still mean something for good players as long as we don't completely plummet to mid-table and below, we can attract the same players we are now. Top players, probably not...but as I said, we're never in the running for them anyway.

Arteta did say that. New signings say a lot of things. We don't particularly play great football any more and yet you can bet your house on the next £10m signing we make from Ligue 1 will say he wanted to join Arsenal because of their style of football.

Of course finishing 4th has clear financial advantages, but is it as big an achievement as Arsene and the hype that surrounds it suggests? Not in my opinion. We are in a healthy financial position and if we want to buy good players, we need to offer more money; in transfer fees and wages.

[facdroit]

Podolski agreed terms with Arsenal according to Bilde.

http://www.goal.com/en/news/725/bund...lukas-podolski

[Numan786]

does anyone else not think we need strengthening in the lb position??

[Catilina]

(Original post by Spoonforknife)
I can see Barrios leaving to be fair, or a key player. Sure they can qualify but as far as being sucessful in the CL goes I can see him going to the EPL for that.

Barrios will leave, but that´s because he´s been benched for Lewandowski for most of the season.

I agree they won´t have a lot of sucess in the CL, but currently it looks like he will join one of the big spanish clubs or Bayern next year. Kagawa is a more realistic target and he´s shown more interest in the EPL.

Doesn't Podolski's contract run out in 2013? Why would Podolski become a free transfer if Cologne are relegated?

Relegation voids his contract. The chances of Cologne being relegated aren´t too high but it´s not impossible either.

[gunit123]

A more reputable source:

Phil McNulty (BBC Sport correspondant) on twitter:

Germany striker Lukas Podolski is close to joining Arsenal from Cologne, German daily Bild claims on its website.

[milkytea]

(Original post by Overmars)
Offering CL football is one of the things you can say about Arsenal. Yes, I think we could've got Oxlade without CL football. We are a big club and we will stay a big club, and it will still mean something for good players as long as we don't completely plummet to mid-table and below, we can attract the same players we are now. Top players, probably not...but as I said, we're never in the running for them anyway.

Arteta did say that. New signings say a lot of things. We don't particularly play great football any more and yet you can bet your house on the next £10m signing we make from Ligue 1 will say he wanted to join Arsenal because of their style of football.

Of course finishing 4th has clear financial advantages, but is it as big an achievement as Arsene and the hype that surrounds it suggests? Not in my opinion. We are in a healthy financial position and if we want to buy good players, we need to offer more money; in transfer fees and wages.

I can agree with that on the whole, I just don't think the potential negative effects of finishing outside the top four should be underestimated. If we don't offer CL football any longer, and we don't offer the best style of football either, why would any potential signing want to move to us ahead of any other club which can match our wage offers? And let's face it, there are numerous clubs which can both match and exceed us financially whilst offering CL football as well. Even with Wenger's small-spending transfer policy, we still sign players with strong reputations in Europe (e.g. Gervinho, Mertesacker, Arshavin). Without top four status I think we'd struggle even to sign those sorts of players.

(Original post by Numan786)
does anyone else not think we need strengthening in the lb position??

I don't think so, no. Santos looked like an improvement on Clichy to me before his injury. He was sometimes suspect defensively, but so was Clichy. Santos actually gave an end product in attack, though. Gibbs could also get a lot better with a run of games and is at the very least a good backup.

[zxh800]

(Original post by gunit123)
A more reputable source:

Phil McNulty (BBC Sport correspondant) on twitter:

Germany striker Lukas Podolski is close to joining Arsenal from Cologne, German daily Bild claims on its website.

I'm afraid it doesn't make a difference. All news outlets are saying that Bild are saying podolski has agreed to sign with Arsenal. The reliability of the story depends on Bild.

[Darth Vader 7]

(Original post by Overmars)
Offering CL football is one of the things you can say about Arsenal. Yes, I think we could've got Oxlade without CL football. We are a big club and we will stay a big club, and it will still mean something for good players as long as we don't completely plummet to mid-table and below, we can attract the same players we are now. Top players, probably not...but as I said, we're never in the running for them anyway.

Arteta did say that. New signings say a lot of things. We don't particularly play great football any more and yet you can bet your house on the next £10m signing we make from Ligue 1 will say he wanted to join Arsenal because of their style of football.

Of course finishing 4th has clear financial advantages, but is it as big an achievement as Arsene and the hype that surrounds it suggests? Not in my opinion. We are in a healthy financial position and if we want to buy good players, we need to offer more money; in transfer fees and wages.

I highly disagree about Chamberlain. So many clubs were in for him including Man Utd. It's only because Arsenal give chances to youngsters as well as having a solid European reputation that he chose us. He wouldn't have come to us if we were mid-table.

People don't seem to understand the repercussions of not getting CL places. We could lose: Van Persie, Walcott, Song, Sagna and maybe others if we lose our place. You underestimate the attraction of CL football. If those players I've listed leave, we will need to replace our whole spine and I'm sorry to say but we can't replace man for man simply because we can't buy players as good as those that leave.

There is also the fact of the revenue it brings. Fans are more likely to buy tickets at Arsenal knowing we are a top 4, CL contending team. No matter how unlikely it could be for us to win it, fans tend to dream of the possibilities and hence you'll sell more tickets in general (especially at our prices) if we have CL football. It also firms our position as 'favourites' for trophies in all competition because of European pedigree.

It would also be another excuse to not spend from the Arsenal board and to be honest, that'd be the final nail in the coffin.

Finally, it's so hard to get back into the CL places once your out of it. The likes of Man city and Chelsea have infinite funds to spend if something doesn't go their way. It is almost guaranteed that they'll make top 4 every year. Then no-one would rule out Utd for the title let alone falling from top 4. That's another place almost guaranteed. There is only one more place left and the likes of Liverpool and Spurs have decent to strong financial positions as well as having good squads. The competition will be fierce and we can't afford to lose 4th place.

[Overmars]

(Original post by milkytea)
I can agree with that on the whole, I just don't think the potential negative effects of finishing outside the top four should be underestimated. If we don't offer CL football any longer, and we don't offer the best style of football either, why would any potential signing want to move to us ahead of any other club which can match our wage offers? And let's face it, there are numerous clubs which can both match and exceed us financially whilst offering CL football as well.

Absolutely right; there are numerous clubs which can both match and exceed us financially whilst offering CL football as well. My point is -- we haven't been in direct competition with many (if any) of them when making our recent purchases. Were we in direct competition with any good clubs when making our signings? I can't remember that being the case. We can continue buying the type of players we have been buying.

Even with Wenger's small-spending transfer policy, we still sign players with strong reputations in Europe (e.g. Gervinho, Mertesacker, Arshavin). Without top four status I think we'd struggle even to sign those sorts of players.

All those players just wanted out; you offer the right fee and wages and you can get them. This 'top four status' is something the club have tried to sell us as a trophy but it's really not a crucial factor. Where else could those players go? As I say, there was nobody else in for them. But there have been many players for which we have reportedly made bids for but lost out to other CL level clubs; Ricky Alvarez, Melo, Mata and others. I can't remember the last time we bought a player that was clearly wanted by other good clubs too. I have to go as far back as Pires who chose us over Real Madrid and Juventus. Maybe I'm missing a couple since.

Look at the key players in our squad -- not one of them are players we couldn't have bought without the 'CL status'.

[419]

As if we wouldn't have gotten AOC if we weren't in CL. The kid was playing league one football last year. League one.
Didn't Bale go to Spurs when all the big clubs were after him??

[Overmars]

(Original post by Darth Vader 7)
I highly disagree about Chamberlain. So many clubs were in for him including Man Utd. It's only because Arsenal give chances to youngsters as well as having a solid European reputation that he chose us. He wouldn't have come to us if we were mid-table.

I'm not saying he would've come to us if we were mid-table. I've explicitly stated we couldn't afford to plummet to mid-table, so lets leave out the hyperbole. Chamberlain signed less than a year ago. He was under no delusions about our current position.

People don't seem to understand the repercussions of not getting CL places. We could lose: Van Persie, Walcott, Song, Sagna and maybe others if we lose our place. You underestimate the attraction of CL football. If those players I've listed leave, we will need to replace our whole spine and I'm sorry to say but we can't replace man for man simply because we can't buy players as good as those that leave.

We've lost Cesc, Nasri and plenty of key players in the past with CL places. You overestimate the attraction of CL football. I've already stated the type of players we have been attracting; I'm not going to repeat myself. I think it's completely insane to expect much more of an exodus than what has already occured. We have already been stripped of our main assets. Van Persie is the one star we would have to hold on to.

There is also the fact of the revenue it brings. Fans are more likely to buy tickets at Arsenal knowing we are a top 4, CL contending team. No matter how unlikely it could be for us to win it, fans tend to dream of the possibilities and hence you'll sell more tickets in general (especially at our prices) if we have CL football. It also firms our position as 'favourites' for trophies in all competition because of European pedigree. It would also be another excuse to not spend from the Arsenal board and to be honest, that'd be the final nail in the coffin.

We are making record profits year by year and our transfer strategy hasn't been changing. Fans will continue to turn up to support players if they see good effort on the pitch, and if the board are alarmed by any falling attendances, they'll release the funds to buy players. And the funds are there -- as they report.

Finally, it's so hard to get back into the CL places once your out of it. The likes of Man city and Chelsea have infinite funds to spend if something doesn't go their way. It is almost guaranteed that they'll make top 4 every year. Then no-one would rule out Utd for the title let alone falling from top 4. That's another place almost guaranteed. There is only one more place left and the likes of Liverpool and Spurs have decent to strong financial positions as well as having good squads. The competition will be fierce and we can't afford to lose 4th place.

I have stated before that we could learn from what Tottenham have done. There has been a severe mismanagement of funds. Manage it better and there is every chance.

[milkytea]

(Original post by Overmars)
Absolutely right; there are numerous clubs which can both match and exceed us financially whilst offering CL football as well. My point is -- we haven't been in direct competition with many (if any) of them when making our recent purchases. Were we in direct competition with any good clubs when making our signings? I can't remember that being the case. We can continue buying the type of players we have been buying.


All those players just wanted out; you offer the right fee and wages and you can get them. This 'top four status' is something the club have tried to sell us as a trophy but it's really not a crucial factor. Where else could those players go? As I say, there was nobody else in for them. But there have been many players for which we have reportedly made bids for but lost out to other CL level clubs; Ricky Alvarez, Melo, Mata and others. I can't remember the last time we bought a player that was clearly wanted by other good clubs too. I have to go as far back as Pires who chose us over Real Madrid and Juventus. Maybe I'm missing a couple since.

Look at the key players in our squad -- not one of them are players we couldn't have bought without the 'CL status'.

I suppose that with players like Gervinho, other teams weren't reported to be in for him but I'd be surprised if there were no other teams who had CL football to offer who weren't interested. If we didn't have it, I suspect making similar signings would become considerably more difficult - but then again, that's conjecture. I admit that your point is probably accurate, but the idea of the club lacking CL football still makes me feel somehow uneasy - maybe it's simply because I love watching us play against the top teams in Europe when we actually turn up. But don't Liverpool's recent struggles also show how dangerous it can be to drop out of the top four?

If you look at the key players in our squad, I think we could have signed them without being in the CL but I'm not sure we'd be able to keep hold of the likes of Song or Sagna without it, let alone RVP.

P.S. Noticed that you addressed many of these points above, so don't feel obliged to reply to this...

[doggyfizzel]

(Original post by Overmars)
Of course finishing 4th has clear financial advantages, but is it as big an achievement as Arsene and the hype that surrounds it suggests? Not in my opinion. We are in a healthy financial position and if we want to buy good players, we need to offer more money; in transfer fees and wages.

I don't see how you can say that. From a prestige point of view the CL is the biggest club competition in the world, that affects players more so the calibre willing to remain at Arsenal on lower wages than elsewhere and crucially sponsorship. You can demand a lot more money when you are reaching the knockouts of the CL than if you are not. That will surely be a factor when it comes to renew sponsorship deals, and how much you can demand. £27m+ is a lot of money, 10% of Arsenal's turnover, that is clear financial benefit which is practically irreplaceable.

[Overmars]

(Original post by milkytea)
I suppose that with players like Gervinho, other teams weren't reported to be in for him but I'd be surprised if there were no other teams who had CL football to offer who weren't interested. If we didn't have it, I suspect making similar signings would become considerably more difficult - but then again, that's conjecture. I admit that your point is probably accurate, but the idea of the club lacking CL football still makes me feel somehow uneasy - maybe it's simply because I love watching us play against the top teams in Europe when we actually turn up. But don't Liverpool's recent struggles also show how dangerous it can be to drop out of the top four?

It's a bit of a double-edged sword, really. That 2-1 win against Barcelona was a special night -- the best in our new stadium. Maybe Henry's goal against Leeds matched that for sentimental value. But the predictability is something I don't enjoy. It's the same story every season. Maybe a season away from the limelight could do us some good, allow us to properly sort things out. And a good cup run, regardless of the competition, is great fun for the fans -- just ask Liverpool, or look back at our Carling Cup run last season. It could be fun. At least it would be different. But obviously the overall goal is to succeed and we would want to be back in the CL as soon as possible. I don't feel it would be much more difficult than it is now because our transfer policy doesn't involve buying top players (or retaining them, seemingly).

If you look at the key players in our squad, I think we could have signed them without being in the CL but I'm not sure we'd be able to keep hold of the likes of Song or Sagna without it, let alone RVP.

But we are not really keeping hold of our key players anyway, are we? Every season we are selling a couple of first-team players. But I think our young players seem to have a real connection with the club and appear to be true fans of the club. I can't imagine our British core leaving any time soon, and that includes Theo. Jenkinson, Szczesny and Wilshere, in particular, appear to be in it for the long haul, but I guess things do change.