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British economy will be biggest in Europe in four decades

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2080402/Finally-good-news-2050--British-economy-biggest-Europe-decades-say-experts.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Really? I thought long-term forecasts were extremely unreliable.

Britain will be the biggest economy in Europe with one of the wealthiest populations in the world by the middle of the century, according to leading economists.

Long-term forecasts by investment bank Goldman Sachs suggest the UK will fare better than its neighbours on the Continent over the next four decades.

Britain is currently the third biggest economy in Europe behind Germany and France in terms of overall size but by 2050 it will have leapfrogged both countries.
On the rise: The UK economy will leapfrog those of France and Germany within four decades

On the rise: The UK economy will leapfrog those of France and Germany within four decades

The UK will also jump from being the sixth wealthiest country in the world measured by national income per head to third.

Only people in the United States and Canada will be more prosperous than those in Britain by 2050, according to the report.

Dominic Wilson, chief markets economist at Goldman Sachs, said Britain faced a number of pressing issues such as high unemployment and weak economic growth.
World economic league

The UK is currently the seventh biggest economy in the world having recently been overtaken by Brazil

‘But looking forward we think the UK is capable of holding its own and in fact moving ahead of some of the other developed economies,’ he added.

Goldman put Britain’s strong performance down to higher-than-expected investment than in countries such as Germany and France.

It also said that the economy would benefit from immigration which would boost the working age population.

The upbeat predictions came as Britain struggles to recover from the worst financial crisis and recession since the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The debt-fuelled boom and bust of the last Labour government has plunged Britain deep into the red and left households struggling to make ends meet.

Sir Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, warned over the summer that the UK is only part of the way through 'seven lean years' after the banking crash.

Britain is currently the seventh biggest economy in the world having recently been overtaken by Brazil. The US is number one, followed by China, Japan, Germany and France.
Bank Governor Sir Mervyn King warned over the summer that the UK is only part of the way through ¿seven lean years¿

Bank Governor Sir Mervyn King warned over the summer that the UK is only part of the way through 'seven lean years'
A YEAR TO FORGET FOR THE GLOBAL MARKETS

Investors saw £85billion of their capital wiped out in 2011 as the spectres of the eurozone crisis and a double-dip recession loomed over the markets.

A tumultuous year ended today with the FTSE 100 Index down nearly 6 per cent - but investors may be thankful the decline was not worse.

During a panic sell-off in August, when politicians were staring into the abyss due to the European debt crisis, the top flight index was 19 per cent lower and below the 5000 mark. It closed today at 5572.3, down 327.7 points, or 5.6 per cent.

City experts have forecast more fluctuations in 2012 and with the future of the eurozone still uncertain few have made firm predictions for next year.

The near 6 per cent fall for the FTSE 100 Index is in stark contrast to the 9 per cent gain the previous year, while the FTSE 250 Index fell 13 per cent after an improvement of 24 per cent a year ago.

But the performance of the London market is stronger than both the German Dax, which lost about 15 per cent, and the Cac-40 in France which ended the year around 18 per cent lower.

By 2050, the UK will have fallen to ninth place having been overtaken by Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and India, according to Goldman. But the report said it will be bigger than both France and Germany in 10th and 11th respectively. Goldman said China would become the world’s biggest economy ahead of the US in 2026.

But Mr Wilson said the citizens of fast-growing countries such as Brazil, Russia, India and China collectively known as the BRICs will still be markedly less well-off than their Western counterparts.

‘The income levels are so far ahead in the developed world that any sensible exercise leaves them likely to be the richest for some time,’ said Mr Wilson.

The UK is the sixth richest country in the world in terms of income per head, behind the US in first place followed by Canada, Japan, France and Germany. But Goldman predicted that in 2050 Britain will be up to third.

Research group IHS Global Insight yesterday predicted economic growth of 0.3 per cent in Britain in 2012 and a slump of 0.7 per cent in the eurozone.

‘GDP is expected to contract sharply in Greece and Portugal in 2012, while declines are also anticipated in several other countries, notably including Italy, Spain and, to a lesser extent, France,’ said IHS chief European economist Howard Archer.

'Meanwhile, Germany is seen achieving only marginal growth.

‘2012 is clearly going to be a very difficult year for the UK economy, with modest contraction likely to occur in the early months.

'We expect the economy to start growing gradually in the second half of 2012.’

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2080402/Finally-good-news-2050--British-economy-biggest-Europe-decades-say-experts.html#ixzz1i2fYvDAs


Surely the German economy is stronger than ours? Do we even produce things anymore?
(edited 12 years ago)

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Reply 1
First thing positive about the UK economy I have seen in my entire life
Original post by MacCuishy
First thing positive about the UK economy I have seen in my entire life


Yeah is was a bit of a shock after reading so many articles about Brazil's economy overtaking ours!
Reply 3
Why do people seem to believe that Manufacturing is the be all and end all for economies?

It's important yes, but other sectors are going to far more productive for the UK.
Reply 4
Original post by paniking_and_not_revising
Do we even produce things anymore?


£140bn and 2.6m employees would suggest the answer is yes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom
(edited 12 years ago)
Original post by MacCuishy
The Uk is one of the leading countries for drug research and development. If i'm honest I can see us developing a cure for cancer sometime in the future :love:


That would be awesome.

Surely manufacturing would help the country.


Tommo3
Why do people seem to believe that Manufacturing is the be all and end all for economies?

It's important yes, but other sectors are going to far more productive for the UK.


What are the other sectors? I only know of one: the financial sector.

I don't really know a great deal about economics. I've only started reading about it in the past few days. And is Russia not included in Europe or something?
Reply 6
Original post by paniking_and_not_revising
What are the other sectors? I only know of one: the financial sector.


Check out the link in my earlier post (#6)
London is the largest financial sector in the world so its not really that unexpected.
Reply 8
You people start taking crap from the daily mail serious now?
Reply 9
A possibility indeed.... one thing to note is most of the large economies on the continent will face a demographic timebomb far worse than Britain.

But then a lot can happen from now till 2050.... I won't be holding my breath till then :biggrin:
Original post by viffer
Check out the link in my earlier post (#6)


So why are so many people harping on about us not producing goods?


I still find that I'm wary of believing the article. It's the DM though so I'm probably right to ignore it.
Reply 11
What exactly will India, Mexico, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and China be producing in 40 years that they don't manufacture today, and will generate enough to put them all in the top 8 economies? I can buy the idea that one or two of them will be transformed into major players (e.g., China & India, or India & Brazil) but not all of them. If that level of production isn't required today, why will it be required then? It's not as if Europe and North America will ever be in the position of providing nothing for themselves. It seems that forecasters of the future always feel a need to be dramatic, whereas the change will be a little more subtle.
Original post by DaveSmith99
London is the largest financial sector in the world so its not really that unexpected.


Because our financial sector has helped us so much hasn't it?

Original post by Unknown?
You people start taking crap from the daily mail serious now?


It's a lot easier to read the Daily Mail than a more worthwhile paper when you're brain has been butchered from 6 hours of reading about King James I and his policies.
Reply 13
Original post by paniking_and_not_revising
So why are so many people harping on about us not producing goods?


I think it's 'just' a fallacy that suits certain people's politics tbh. It's less than it was in the past certainly but some stupidly claim that everything is made in Far Eastern sweatshops by children earning £0.10 per day and imported to the UK.
should this prediction become realised/ proved to be correct, i will be in my sixties......


O.O''
Reply 15
I would highly recommend reading that Wikipedia article. Its quite a good read actually
Original post by paniking_and_not_revising
Because our financial sector has helped us so much hasn't it?



Yes, without it we wouldnt really have an economy. Get over the HERP DERP BANKERS R BAD media rubbish and stop being so naive. :rolleyes:
Original post by paniking_and_not_revising

Surely the German economy is stronger than ours?


Long term, Germany has to deal with an ageing and shrinking workforce.

Original post by paniking_and_not_revising

Do we even produce things anymore?


The fact that our economy is valued at around £1.5 trillion would suggest that infact we do indeed produce things. £1.5 trillion worth of things.
Reply 18
It also said that the economy would benefit from immigration which would boost the working age population.


Someone at the Daily Mail is going to be in trouble for letting this get published.....:bricks:
Original post by paniking_and_not_revising
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2080402/Finally-good-news-2050--British-economy-biggest-Europe-decades-say-experts.html?ito=feeds-newsxml

Really? I thought long-term forecasts were extremely unreliable.

Surely the German economy is stronger than ours? Do we even produce things anymore?

Germany and France are tied into the EU and if it is not sorted out then the UK will most likely leap frog both countries however if it is and no problems of this scale arise again in the Eurozone then I doubt that the UK will leapfrog them as the DM says.

Also any other source than DM, I am sceptical of them.

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