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TSR MHoC Election Prediction Competition

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Post on TSR and win a prize! Find out more... 10-04-2014
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    Tories to win all seats
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    My predictions after the general election

    TSR Conservative Party: 14
    TSR Labour Party: 12
    TSR Libertarian: 6
    TSR Socialist: 7
    TSR UKIP: 4
    TSR Lib Dem: 5
    barnetlad: 1
    JPKC: 1
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    (Original post by TopHat)
    Average prediction is now:

    Conservative 13.8571
    Labour 11.7857
    Libertarian 7.0714
    Liberal Democrat 5.9286
    Socialist 5.9286
    UKIP 4
    JPKC 0.8571
    barnetlad 0.5714

    Highest fractional average produces

    Con 14
    Lab 12
    Libertarian 7
    Lib Dem 6
    Socialist 6
    UKIP 4
    JPKC 1
    barnetlad 0

    Looks like people think the real fight is the LibDem/Socialist battle for 4th largest party.
    Any idea what the statistical likelyhood is of that fractional average being the actual result?
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Any idea what the statistical likelyhood is of that fractional average being the actual result?
    Depends on how good you think people's guesses are.
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    (Original post by wizardtop)
    My predictions after the general election

    TSR Conservative Party: 14
    TSR Labour Party: 12
    TSR Libertarian: 7
    TSR Socialist: 7
    TSR UKIP: 5
    TSR Lib Dem: 6
    barnetlad: 1
    JPKC: 1
    That's 53 seats...
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Any idea what the statistical likelyhood is of that fractional average being the actual result?
    What jesusandtequila said. Theoretically, if our predictions are normally distributed around the correct value, that should be almost perfectly correct. If our predictions are skewed for some reason (the more likely option) it won't be. Depends on how good at predicting the average TSR user is.
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    (Original post by jesusandtequila)
    That's 53 seats...
    how many seats should it be jesusandtequila?
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    (Original post by wizardtop)
    how many seats should it be jesusandtequila?
    50.
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    (Original post by toronto353)
    50.
    Thanks for that clarification toronto353 overestimated by 3 seats then in this competation.
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    (Original post by wizardtop)
    Thanks for that clarification toronto353 overestimated by 3 seats then in this competation.
    You can just edit it. There's been about 3-4 people who predicted more than 50 seats, included the Centre Party in their predictions etc. and they just edited it
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    Perhaps I should have a go at this before the election is over:

    Conservatives: 14
    Labour: 12
    Libertarian: 7
    Liberal Democrat: 5
    Socialist: 6
    UKIP: 4
    barnetlad: 1
    JPKC: 1

    I only think that JPKC will get the votes because all the drama happened in the latter part of the election. Lib dems may be damaged by RL association. Conservatives may have been helped by the prominence of their manifesto. Labour may be damaged by the VONC/ record/ JPKC issues.
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    (Original post by toronto353)
    I only think that JPKC will get the votes because all the drama happened in the latter part of the election. Lib dems may be damaged by RL association. Conservatives may have been helped by the prominence of their manifesto. Labour may be damaged by the VONC/ record/ JPKC issues.
    People won't be reading the pathetic stuff happening in the discussion, and even if they did it doesn't distract from the legitimacy of my policies.

    Also, the Tories are likely to lose people based on the RL scandals of the past two-weeks - UKIP/Libers should benefit from this.
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    (Original post by JPKC)
    People won't be reading the pathetic stuff happening in the discussion, and even if they did it doesn't distract from the legitimacy of my policies.

    Also, the Tories are likely to lose people based on the RL scandals of the past two-weeks - UKIP/Libers should benefit from this.
    I'd argue that even if they did, the fact that it has come late in the election won't really affect your vote share as such. Agreed with the Tories, but I'm arguing from prominence that they may do well.
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    My final effort

    Tories 12
    Labour 10
    Lib Dems 8
    Socialists 7
    Libertarians 6
    UKIP 5
    Independents 2

    Tory/Lib/UKIP coalition with occasional support from the Lib Dems.
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    Conservative - 14
    Labour - 12

    Anything else doesn't really matter tbh.

    It could be argued that people won't bother voting for JPKC if they could vote for Labour, though.
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    Most predictions seem to have The Tories on 14 and Labour on 12. Wonder how accurate that will be.
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    Closed pending the revealing of the election results.
Updated: March 31, 2012
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