Hey there Sign in to join this conversationNew here? Join for free

Will UKIP become a "big" party?

Announcements Posted on
  • View Poll Results: Will UKIP become a big party
    yes
    45
    39.47%
    no
    69
    60.53%

    • Thread Starter
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    With some of the population losing faith in the Tory party and feeling cheated and sold out by the lib-dems, and with growing levels of euroscepticism following all the trouble with the euro economy will people be more inclined to switch to the UKIP vote? I do not support UKIP I am merely asking this question from observations I have made
    • 16 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    My immediate reaction would be no. Whilst it is true that in times of political difficulty people tend to turn away from the main parties to smaller, extremer ones, I doubt there will be enough of a turn to increase votes for UKIP to a substantial level. Whilst I do try to convince people that we shouldn't just brainlessly vote for the same two damn parties every time even though they have both demonstrated how rubbish they are, I doubt that many adults will think to change their ways, and most teenagers aren't likely to give the matter as much consideration as it deserves!
    Having said that, my ex-girlfriend's dad voted UKIP out of disgust of how awful the major parties are behaving, which I struggled to agree with (even though he was certainly right that we should vote for smaller parties to put pressure on them to get something bloody done). So they might become bigger, but I very much doubt if they will become big enough to actually play any significant role in politics - and thank Thor's balls for that!
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    Not under this voting system, unless very popular Conservative MP's who can be re-elected on that alone start defecting I can't see it happening. UKIPS main problem is they mostly take votes from Conservatives, and as a result bolster Labour which has the opposite effect of weaking the Right Wing overall and lets be honest the average UKIP member would probably rather have the Conservatives than Labour in power.
    • 4 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    Opinion polls and local polls/elections suggest they are taking over the Lib dems, and even beat labour to on a few.

    They, like the greens with those disillusioned with new-labour, are the tory version of that, a more right wing and more authoritarian party. Farage should help bring the authoritarianism below tory levels though.
    • 31 followers
    Online

    ReputationRep:
    Ultimately it depends on what you classify as 'big'.

    If we take big to mean 10%+ of the popular vote and a chance to be a secondary partner in a coalition then it is doubtful that this will happen before 2030 in my opinion though they may well get a couple of MPs.

    Looking at electoral trends we see that the combined Labour-Tory vote has decreased each election since 1992 and while 2015 may break this run i believe that it will recommence in 2020 which does give scope for one of the 'others' to make their mark.

    Further, i believe the future in England to be liberal but right economically and as such i expect that the Tories (already have many libertarians in the youth wing) and the 'Orange book' Liberal Democrats if they ever quash the left of the party to be the dominant force from 2030 onward.

    Note that if Scotland becomes independent then Labour will call for STV with the Liberal Democrats, so if that occurs then UKIP will have a couple of MPs.
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    I don't think they will. I think both big parties will move further to the right on immigration issues which will prevent UKIP getting big.
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    We need a proper right-wing party back in this country, I would rather see the Conservatives retake this ground, but if they don't there will definitely be an opportunity for a party like UKIP to grow into the vacuum, after all they have a head start on everyone else.
    • 31 followers
    Online

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by prog2djent)
    Opinion polls and local polls/elections suggest they are taking over the Lib dems, and even beat labour to on a few.

    They, like the greens with those disillusioned with new-labour, are the tory version of that, a more right wing and more authoritarian party. Farage should help bring the authoritarianism below tory levels though.
    ICM has never shown UKIP above the Liberal Democrats and that is statistically the most accurate pollster. Youguv which is the one everybody looks at because it releases a poll every other day applies readership weightings and had the Liberal Democrats on 8% for the local elections, they polled 15%.

    I have no doubt that UKIP support is growing but i honestly do not think it is past the 5% nationally, let alone overtaking the Liberal Democrats.
    • 29 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    With Liberal Democrats falling out of favour, there is space for a new third party, however this outcome will only lead to a largening of the two main parties anyway, so it's rather redundant. Essentially, the answer is a big fat no, unless the Conservatives are annihilated by space monkeys.
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by jumpingjesusholycow)
    With Liberal Democrats falling out of favour, there is space for a new third party, however this outcome will only lead to a largening of the two main parties anyway, so it's rather redundant. Essentially, the answer is a big fat no, unless the Conservatives are annihilated by space monkeys.
    How many Lib Dem voters do you seriously think will switch to UKIP? I'm guessing a figure somewhere between 0 and 0.
    • 31 followers
    Online

    ReputationRep:
    To be honest i think many people are being too reactionary in condemning the Liberal Democrats to death given that they still polled 15% in the local elections last May and that is as bad as it is likely to get. In addition, it seems to be Clegg that people hate rather than the party, much like Thatcher rather then the Conservatives.

    The real test for UKIP is can they maintain their increasing support when Clegg goes.
    • 29 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by James82)
    How many Lib Dem voters do you seriously think will switch to UKIP? I'm guessing a figure somewhere between 0 and 0.
    You don't pay attention much do you? As I stated, Liberal Democrats will most likely move to Labour (or failing that, Greens) which will lead to a largening of the two main parties and a drop in LD votes, leaving room for a third party. Please do re-read a post before responding.
    • 4 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Mufasaa)
    I don't think they will. I think both big parties will move further to the right on immigration issues which will prevent UKIP getting big.
    Er, no.

    Right-left doesn't influence immigration, authoritarian statists vs libertarian affects that issue.

    The most right wing party, the libertarian party, want an almost completely free boarder, whilst a whole bunch of leftist unionist and regional socialist parties want tighter controls.

    The media and the state have done well into convinving the population right-left covers all areas and that nothing else exists outside that.
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by jumpingjesusholycow)
    You don't pay attention much do you? As I stated, Liberal Democrats will most likely move to Labour (or failing that, Greens) which will lead to a largening of the two main parties and a drop in LD votes, leaving room for a third party. Please do re-read a post before responding.
    I imagine the Liberal Democrats will recover after the 2015 election. Unless of course the economy miracously recovers over the next three years and they claim credit as they would be able to. But that the economy recovering is looking unlikely. But they won't be completely annihalted, they could get less of the vote than UKIP in 2015 and still hold more seats due to their strongholds.

    UKIP need to build themselves up, they need to adopt the Green strategy. They can't just drop as much cash as possible on getting as many candidates out as possible. They need to focus on strongholds of their support and build local campaigns focused on getting there people elected there, not a nationwide campaign that will return no MPs a lot of lost deposits. The Greens focused on Brighton and they got it, and they can look elsewhere and expand. UKIP need to do something similar.
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by prog2djent)
    Er, no.

    Right-left doesn't influence immigration, authoritarian statists vs libertarian affects that issue.

    The most right wing party, the libertarian party, want an almost completely free boarder, whilst a whole bunch of leftist unionist and regional socialist parties want tighter controls.

    The media and the state have done well into convinving the population right-left covers all areas and that nothing else exists outside that.
    Right wing in social terms leans towards authoritarianism and tighter immigration. Right-left isn't only economic, like it seems you're suggesting (unless I'm misunderstanding you).
    • 29 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    UKIP loses all credibility by their myopia over Europe. Once they withdraw us, what else will they do? It's amazing people are taking a single issue party of limited vision seriously.
    • Thread Starter
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Birchington)
    UKIP loses all credibility by their myopia over Europe. Once they withdraw us, what else will they do? It's amazing people are taking a single issue party of limited vision seriously.
    lmaoo is that a bit of lib-dem bias talking there :P although i agree, I do think they need to expand their issues more.
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Birchington)
    UKIP loses all credibility by their myopia over Europe. Once they withdraw us, what else will they do? It's amazing people are taking a single issue party of limited vision seriously.
    Lmao - lib dems...
    • 4 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Mufasaa)
    Right wing in social terms leans towards authoritarianism and tighter immigration. Right-left isn't only economic, like it seems you're suggesting (unless I'm misunderstanding you).
    That is what I'm suggesting, that's the point, left-right is only supposed to do with economics, no need to go further on what they are. You can't be right wing socially or left wing socially, for example, I think Drugs should be decriminalised at the top end and legalised at the bottom, and I think gay marriage, along with polygamy and incest should be legal if consenting, I think we should bring all troops home, imperialism has destroyed much potential progress of the world etc etc but I am pro-free market, very pro free market, I am right wing.

    The left-right thing is stupid and doesn't cover enough, you sound the sort of persons that would know the 4 Axis measurement, most right wing people I know, and most right-wing people on this forum are party of the libertarian right. But under your definitions (and the propogandising media), we are somehow centrist because our economic views are right wing, yet are social views are left? Eh? No, out social views are libertarian and we are economically liberal.

    You can get lefties who want to have stricter boarders, anti-muslims/black/non-white laws passed etc, but you are still left wing because you might favour protectionism over free trade, you might perfer military interventionism over staying out of the way, you might prefer lots of state control over the market. What I am decribing is the BNP, shock horror, a center-left party who happen to be extremely authoritarian and border line fascist (which is why they are centre left, since the fascism is pulling them to the extremely authoritarian right)



    Pedantic, I know

    • Thread Starter
    • 0 followers
    Offline

    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by prog2djent)
    That is what I'm suggesting, that's the point, left-right is only supposed to do with economics, no need to go further on what they are. You can't be right wing socially or left wing socially, for example, I think Drugs should be decriminalised at the top end and legalised at the bottom, and I think gay marriage, along with polygamy and incest should be legal if consenting, I think we should bring all troops home, imperialism has destroyed much potential progress of the world etc etc but I am pro-free market, very pro free market, I am right wing.

    The left-right thing is stupid and doesn't cover enough, you sound the sort of persons that would know the 4 Axis measurement, most right wing people I know, and most right-wing people on this forum are party of the libertarian right. But under your definitions (and the propogandising media), we are somehow centrist because our economic views are right wing, yet are social views are left? Eh? No, out social views are libertarian and we are economically liberal.

    You can get lefties who want to have stricter boarders, anti-muslims/black/non-white laws passed etc, but you are still left wing because you might favour protectionism over free trade, you might perfer military interventionism over staying out of the way, you might prefer lots of state control over the market. What I am decribing is the BNP, shock horror, a center-left party who happen to be extremely authoritarian and border line fascist (which is why they are centre left, since the fascism is pulling them to the extremely authoritarian right)



    Pedantic, I know

    would i be correct in thinking by the 4 axis you mean left, right, authoritarian, liberatarian? (sorry im new to politics lol) :P

Reply

Submit reply

Register

Thanks for posting! You just need to create an account in order to submit the post
  1. this can't be left blank
    that username has been taken, please choose another Forgotten your password?

    this is what you'll be called on TSR

  2. this can't be left blank
    this email is already registered. Forgotten your password?

    never shared and never spammed

  3. this can't be left blank

    6 characters or longer with both numbers and letters is safer

  4. this can't be left empty
    your full birthday is required
  1. By joining you agree to our Ts and Cs, privacy policy and site rules

  2. Slide the button to the right to create your account

    Slide to join now Processing…

Updated: April 27, 2012
New on TSR

Naughtiest thing you did at school

Did you get away with it or were you punished?

Article updates
Useful resources
Reputation gems:
You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.