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Why do they keep saying the Boris/Ken London Mayoral votes are 'close'?

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    All news outlets are saying that its close between Ken and Boris, but according to both the BBC and Sky, Boris Johnson is at 807,065 votes and Ken Livingstone is at 650,502 (first preference votes). Thats a margin of nearly 10% with 11 out of 14 constituencies counted, how is this 'close'?

    I know theres still 2nd preference to count, but barring a miracle landslide towards Ken in these votes, Boris has already got this in the bag.
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    The remaining constituencies to declare are thought to be Labour strongholds.
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    I think it's because the three constituencies delayed at alexandra palace due to a power cut are strong labour constituencies.
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    (Original post by barnetlad)
    The remaining constituencies to declare are thought to be Labour strongholds.
    right, what are these constituencies?
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    (Original post by internet tough guy)
    right, what are these constituencies?
    Enfield and Haringey, Barnet and Camden, Brent and Harrow and North East.
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    (Original post by Silkysam)
    Enfield and Haringey, Barnet and Camden, Brent and Harrow and North East.
    Not Surprised that the North East (islington) is a labour stronghold, but I thought Barnet, Enfield and Brent are fairly conversative areas or at least I wouldn't expect them to be labour strongholds.
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    It will go down to the wire and all depends on the 2nd Preferences, others are right 3 Constituencies have yet to declare

    The formal Declaration is soon.
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    From the BBC website

    Boris Johnson's team think their man has got more second preference votes than Ken Livingstone, the BBC's Carole Walker says
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    Jenny Jones has said to put Ken as their 2nd Preference and the others have not said.
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    BBC London Radio reporting that Boris Johnson's team saying they have won.
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    From the BBC website

    Boris Johnson's team think their man has got more second preference votes than Ken Livingstone, the BBC's Carole Walker says
    that would be a surprise because apart from the ken and boris, the other candidates who have scored the highest (libdems, greens, benita) are left-leaning, so you'd expect their 2nd prefence votes to go to ken, but then again the libdems are in government with the conservatives, so most of their voters may have felt obliged to help the tories out by putting boris down as their 2nd choice
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    Biased Broadcasting Corporation.
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    I have been wondering this - I was wondering if the numbers onscreen were different to the numbers the reporters had.

    Doesn't look even remotely close to me. Boris is miles ahead :sexface:
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    (Original post by Hobo389)
    Biased Broadcasting Corporation.
    They've been saying it on Sky News too, though.
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    Boris 45 Ken 39 with 2 left to report.
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    (Original post by Aspiringlawstudent)
    I have been wondering this - I was wondering if the numbers onscreen were different to the numbers the reporters had.

    Doesn't look even remotely close to me. Boris is miles ahead :sexface:
    well the margin has just closed significantly, theres now a 6% gap between the two after a constituency has just declared, so like people here are saying, it looks like there will be a heavy ken swing in the remaining consitency to be counted
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    Peter Kellner, polling expert has called it for Boris.
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    North East has gone for Ken apparently, first preference votes
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    (Original post by internet tough guy)
    well the margin has just closed significantly, theres now a 6% gap between the two after a constituency has just declared, so like people here are saying, it looks like there will be a heavy ken swing in the remaining consitency to be counted
    A 6% lead is not by any stretch of the imagination 'close' though.

    There is no chance of Ken winning.
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    (Original post by internet tough guy)
    well the margin has just closed significantly, theres now a 6% gap between the two after a constituency has just declared, so like people here are saying, it looks like there will be a heavy ken swing in the remaining consitency to be counted
    BBC John Pienaar says Boris has won (BBC London Radio).

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Updated: November 22, 2012
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