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Why do they keep saying the Boris/Ken London Mayoral votes are 'close'?

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    Word is out that we'll apparently have to wait "until MIDNIGHT".
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    (Original post by mimx)
    He's not making excuses for Ken being beat by Boris, he was talking about how Ken is being said to be polling lower than Labour in general here and how that doesn't actually tell us anything about how he compares with the rest of his own side, since anyone would poll low against a well liked candidate, it's just that most of them don't face off like this.
    (Original post by internet tough guy)
    Dude, I'm just offering an alternative explanation. I think its too simplistic to just take the view that Boris won because he faced someone who was somehow destined to lose. The flip side of course is that Boris himself is a unique political phenomenon and that whoever Labour put up as their candidate would've been defeated.

    Theres this constant line being drummed up in the media of how Ken is several points behind his party and therefore theres definitely something wrong with him. I am very curious as to what extent this is actually true, because I imagine when these polls are done, people are asked to select who they prefer (ken, boris, etc..) rather than just a straight-forward, ''do you like ken?'' question. Therefore its not very wise to extrapolate this and compare like for like with national party standings. As we all know, mayoral elections are more personality driven and focus more of the individual candidate than national general elections.
    I see, I must have misunderstood your arguments. Whereas you were comparing potential Labour candidates I was comparing candidates in general.
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    (Original post by internet tough guy)
    Dude, I'm just offering an alternative explanation. I think its too simplistic to just take the view that Boris won because he faced someone who was somehow destined to lose. The flip side of course is that Boris himself is a unique political phenomenon and that whoever Labour put up as their candidate would've been defeated.

    Theres this constant line being drummed up in the media of how Ken is several points behind his party and therefore theres definitely something wrong with him. I am very curious as to what extent this is actually true, because I imagine when these polls are done, people are asked to select who they prefer (ken, boris, etc..) rather than just a straight-forward, ''do you like ken?'' question. Therefore its not very wise to extrapolate this and compare like for like with national party standings. As we all know, mayoral elections are more personality driven and focus more of the individual candidate than national general elections.
    I'm not taking a media line though. I've spoken from my own observation of the vote in my own constituency and others, where quite clearly, more people have voted Labour, than they have voted for Ken.

    I can see some of your angst which is driven by either two considerations 1) You don't like the detraction from Boris implied in an argument which undermine's Ken's electability or 2) You quite like Ken.

    I really do not wish to undermine Boris. I met him on Thursday morning and he proved very influential... He is a good candidate. However, one can not get away from the fact that this was an election based on trust and personality. I like Ken myself, I don't really like the hatchet jobs that have been done on him lately.... He did have a better manifesto (as a matter of personal opinion of course), but the electorate simply did not believe that he could implement it. This election will not be decided by the manifestos, I do not think.
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    (Original post by squishy123)
    Word is out that we'll apparently have to wait "until MIDNIGHT".
    Urgh. They'd better not announce it when I'm in the shower...I've waited too long to miss the actual announcement
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    Brent and Harrow trolling everyone
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    6000 Votes are to be counted apparently
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    this is going to take all night...........urghhhhhh.

    Go Ken!
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    (Original post by Pandabär)
    Urgh. They'd better not announce it when I'm in the shower...I've waited too long to miss the actual announcement
    Apparently 6,000 votes need to "be counted". I guess you are free to go in the shower.

    No no wait! They are just in... they've gone to Ken.

    Only joking!

    But I guess you're free to shower as it'll go down to 2nd preference....
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    (Original post by wozza1991)
    I agree that it is a bit of a reductionist approach. But I do take "polled" in my sense there to be that the London Elects results thus far have shown that Ken is behind the Labour vote in the constituencies.

    Boris' poll fluctuations throughout this campaign has been to do with how many Labour voters finally went with Boris. It was as many as 25% that were going to apparently, they have decided this election in a left-leaning city and thus is you had a Labour candidate in better touch with Labour voters they could well have won, and even stetched the other way into the Conservative vote.
    The London constituency election is alot different from the London mayoral election, with the results of the former resembling more like the national party standings. When people vote for their constituency's representative in the london assembly, I doubt would've even heard of the names on the ballot paper. Obviously this is in stark contrast to the mayoral race that has not only been personality driven but it has also garnered the most coverage.
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    (Original post by squishy123)
    Apparently 6,000 votes need to "be counted". I guess you are free to go in the shower.

    No no wait! They are just in... they've gone to Ken.

    Only joking!

    But I guess you're free to shower as it'll go down to 2nd preference....
    It it really going down to second preference???
    Hey hey exciting times
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    (Original post by Forget that)
    It it really going down to second preference???
    Hey hey exciting times
    I guess so with Brent/Harrow being Ken's "backyard", but the news sites aren't really updating so I don't know.

    Telegraph - Been stuck at 10.20
    Guardian - Decent coverage but too sparsely.
    BBC Election - Seemed to completely go off air but then pops back randomly.
    BBC Texting - Again too sparse and no pictures. Bummer.

    How are you guys tracking it?
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    (Original post by squishy123)
    I guess so with Brent/Harrow being Ken's "backyard", but the news sites aren't really updating so I don't know.

    Telegraph - Been stuck at 10.20
    Guardian - Decent coverage but too sparsely.
    BBC Election - Seemed to completely go off air but then pops back randomly.
    BBC Texting - Again too sparse and no pictures. Bummer.

    How are you guys tracking it?
    Watching BBC News 24 and the result is imminent
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    (Original post by wozza1991)
    I'm not taking a media line though. I've spoken from my own observation of the vote in my own constituency and others, where quite clearly, more people have voted Labour, than they have voted for Ken.

    I can see some of your angst which is driven by either two considerations 1) You don't like the detraction from Boris implied in an argument which undermine's Ken's electability or 2) You quite like Ken.

    I really do not wish to undermine Boris. I met him on Thursday morning and he proved very influential... He is a good candidate. However, one can not get away from the fact that this was an election based on trust and personality. I like Ken myself, I don't really like the hatchet jobs that have been done on him lately.... He did have a better manifesto (as a matter of personal opinion of course), but the electorate simply did not believe that he could implement it. This election will not be decided by the manifestos, I do not think.
    Not saying you're taking the media line, by coincidence you've taken the same view from your own observations which is fine. But for me, I can't help but see the potential flaw in your argument because I assume you've not spoken to a representative number of voters in your constitency to ask for their exact voting reasons. So therefore how can you or anyone know for sure if the mayoral results (assuming boris does win) was really the fault of Ken being disliked, rather than Boris's own sense of character and personal charisma. It just frustrates me that the media have been all too willing to take up this line when they've not provided any concrete evidence apart from comparing mayoral and national party polling as if there are like for like, which obviously is not the case. The headlines are already made up, ''Labour picks wrong candidate, loses London mayoral election'' as if thats a definite conclusion we can draw as the reason of the results.
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    (Original post by Morgsie)
    Watching BBC News 24 and the result is imminent
    Really? They were saying that half hour ago.

    How "imminent" is imminent? Time for a cuppa....
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    (Original post by squishy123)
    I guess so with Brent/Harrow being Ken's "backyard", but the news sites aren't really updating so I don't know.

    Telegraph - Been stuck at 10.20
    Guardian - Decent coverage but too sparsely.
    BBC Election - Seemed to completely go off air but then pops back randomly.
    BBC Texting - Again too sparse and no pictures. Bummer.

    How are you guys tracking it?
    I was listening to LBC but i shut it off...
    better start listening again
    Oh well, we all kinda know it's Boris but there's always hope...
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    Any minute now
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    (Original post by Forget that)
    I was listening to LBC but i shut it off...
    better start listening again
    Oh well, we all kinda know it's Boris but there's always hope...
    Tannoy announcements going off all over the place. "Everyone has been summoned" - Sounds ominous...

    You voted for Ken?
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    (Original post by Morgsie)
    Any minute now
    It's been 10 mins since you posted.

    5-4 is going to take at least 25mins.
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    Oh Kenny Kenny,
    Kenny Kenny Kenny Livingstone
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    (Original post by squishy123)
    It's been 10 mins since you posted.

    5-4 is going to take at least 25mins.
    I'm going by the BBC

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Updated: November 22, 2012
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