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What is this hype with China?

I don't understand this hype about the Chinese economy and how they are going to lead the world economically. They have 1.4 billion people so of course their economy is going to be large. We don't even know for certain if it is going to surpass the US (which has only 300 million people) now with the demographics, pollution, property bubble etc.

So what is this hype with China? If you look at standard of living or GDP per capita, they are still very much behind developed countries and i think that is what matters. So why does everybody think that what China or India is doing is so extraordinary? Its a simple numbers game...

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Reply 1
It's more about their potential, and that they're well on their well (especially China) to tapping into it in full.
I don't see the problem with it, though. Along with economic development, China is adopting more democratic, environmentally-conscious, and civilly-conscious policies - they're tentative, but crucial, steps.

I'm optimistic.
Reply 2
The hype is broadly fear in the West that they'll lose dominance over the world. Not particularly justified since there's no right to have dominance, but perhaps it's that the West sees China as a threat not an ally and sees the potential for it to massively impact our lives (e.g. China protectionism massively reducing the US' capability to produce). When you've got power, you want to keep it, and China is a large threat to it.

Also, the demographics aren't an issue in the short-run and the effects will be fully felt in 20-40 years or so. Same with pollution. The property bubble is a large issue, but even if that becomes an issue the projected medium growth predictions still put China way ahead of the US, and a property bubble bursting would still have its impacts in the US.
Original post by starkrush
The hype is broadly fear in the West that they'll lose dominance over the world. Not particularly justified since there's no right to have dominance, but perhaps it's that the West sees China as a threat not an ally and sees the potential for it to massively impact our lives (e.g. China protectionism massively reducing the US' capability to produce). When you've got power, you want to keep it, and China is a large threat to it.

Also, the demographics aren't an issue in the short-run and the effects will be fully felt in 20-40 years or so. Same with pollution. The property bubble is a large issue, but even if that becomes an issue the projected medium growth predictions still put China way ahead of the US, and a property bubble bursting would still have its impacts in the US.


You know, this is a common opinion but I don't think it's correct. Honestly, I don't think the United States really cares, nor the West for that matter. The United States is so close to becoming a hyperpower since the fall of the wall. Considering that the Chinese and West are joint by the hip economically, there's no reason to consider the Chinese a threat. The only real thing to challenge Western hegemony is Chinese pumping its chest on the international stage. But I think the polarisation between the United States and China is for the most part political rhetoric.
(edited 11 years ago)
Reply 4
Original post by VeniViciVidi
You know, this is a common opinion but I don't think it's correct. Honestly, I don't think the United States really cares, nor the West for that matter. The United States is so close to becoming a hyperpower since the fall of the wall. Considering that the Chinese and West are joint by the hip economically, there's no reason to consider the Chinese a threat. The only real thing to challenge Western hegemony is Chinese pumping its chest on the international stage. But I think the polarisation between the United States and China is for the most part political rhetoric.


I think it's likely that there will be many in the US with that opinion, though. Mitt Romney certainly is at the very least indirectly anti-China. I admit that my opinion isn't particularly well informed, but that is also a fair comment about many in the US who may have such fears. They may well not be rational, I agree there with their economic integration, but that doesn't stop it being true. Although it's like that there is, indeed, politics playing it up a little.
Reply 5
whatever the case, i really don't think what the Chinese have done is "spectacular".
Reply 6
Original post by storeypj
whatever the case, i really don't think what the Chinese have done is "spectacular".


its only grown faster than any other country in history, effectively having an industrial revolution in decades rather than a century+.

But I guess they haven't re-made dinosaurs yet so, you know, nothing special
Reply 7
It could be down to the fact hey are developing at a phenominal rate. Logically, it'd be safe to assume that they would surpass the US in the coming decades
Reply 8
China has developed incredibly quickly since it's opening-up policy was introduced and economic reforms set. However that does not mean it's booming right ahead.

The consequences of such development are now becoming apparent and large issues are taking shape. For China to rise higher and surpass other countries, it's challenge is to overcome and sort out these issues, not continue development in the same way.

The rich/poor gap in China is widening at an unprecedented rate, environmental issues will soon spiral out of control if not attended to, and much thanks to the internet allowing people to group together opinions, perverse government corruption continues to make Chinese people less cooperative and satisfied. China will have serious problems down the road if it does not deal with those issues in a rational way, and as of today the government has done far from enough.

I live in Xiamen, a fairly small city in China which is also a Special Economic Zone. Xiamen's development was always intended to be an economic model for development of small-scale cities, and whilst it went incredibly well at first, due to ignorance of the above issues Xiamen is fast becoming a victim of mismanagement.

Long an example of good environmental protection, Xiamen's environment is now on a steady decline due to pollution from cars and industry - stemming mainly from the almost dangerous yearly increase of cars on the road. The city is becoming so saturated with newly registered vehicles that the roads are struggling to cope; the government responds simply by building more roads and expanding others, leaving less room for the also expanding number of pedestrians. Now in some of the city's busiest areas, pedestrians spill onto the roads causing even more traffic. Pollution is causing rising instances of acid rain.

That's only one issue - the point is that China's development is not sustainable at this rate, or at least at this level of ignorance. Issues such as the environment, financial inequality, unaffordable housing and total ignorance of rural development are not growing smaller. The key is how China deals with these, not how quickly it grows bigger. That ship has sailed.

My apologies for not including any sources. These have come off the top of my head from living in China.
(edited 11 years ago)
Reply 9
Original post by mrnightcat
China has developed incredibly quickly since it's opening-up policy was introduced and economic reforms set. However that does not mean it's booming right ahead.

The consequences of such development are now becoming apparent and large issues are taking shape. For China to rise higher and surpass other countries, it's challenge is to overcome and sort out these issues, not continue development in the same way.

The rich/poor gap in China is widening at an unprecedented rate, environmental issues will soon spiral out of control if not attended to, and much thanks to the internet allowing people to group together opinions, perverse government corruption continues to make Chinese people less cooperative and satisfied. China will have serious problems down the road if it does not deal with those issues in a rational way, and as of today the government has done far from enough.

I live in Xiamen, a fairly small city in China which is also a Special Economic Zone. Xiamen's development was always intended to be an economic model for development of small-scale cities, and whilst it went incredibly well at first, due to ignorance of the above issues Xiamen is fast becoming a victim of mismanagement.

Long an example of good environmental protection, Xiamen's environment is now on a steady decline due to pollution from cars and industry - stemming mainly from the almost dangerous yearly increase of cars on the road. The city is becoming so saturated with newly registered vehicles that the roads are struggling to cope; the government responds simply by building more roads and expanding others, leaving less room for the also expanding number of pedestrians. Now in some of the city's busiest areas, pedestrians spill onto the roads causing even more traffic. Pollution is causing rising instances of acid rain.

That's only one issue - the point is that China's development is not sustainable at this rate, or at least at this level of ignorance. Issues such as the environment, financial inequality, unaffordable housing and total ignorance of rural development are not growing smaller. The key is how China deals with these, not how quickly it grows bigger. That ship has sailed.

My apologies for not including any sources. These have come off the top of my head from living in China.


I second this. What really makes me 'dislike' China in many aspects (except for the fact that it is a dictatorial system) is their support for North Korea (probably the closest to being a real world dystopia), their attitude towards Taiwan and Tibet and the fact that in terms of technology they don't really deserve their achievements as they have copied and stolen most concepts and ideas.
I'm surprised given their population there hasn't been a rebellion/civil uprising considering the arab spring and things.
Reply 11
Original post by Mcnubn
its only grown faster than any other country in history, effectively having an industrial revolution in decades rather than a century+.


Ever heard of Japan?
Reply 12
Original post by Mcnubn
its only grown faster than any other country in history, effectively having an industrial revolution in decades rather than a century+.

But I guess they haven't re-made dinosaurs yet so, you know, nothing special


Could that be because Europe and the US experienced industrialisation as a whole new concept whilst China only had to copy what dozens of nations surrounding it had already done before? Considering Mao's Great Leap Forward they didn't even do particularly well.
Tsk... China only got to where it is by doing inhuman things like making 5 year olds work 18 hour shifts and crap like that. Their 'progress' and 'growth' is nothing to be proud of.
Reply 14
Original post by aftrglw
Ever heard of Japan?


Japan was previously the fastest, pretty sure China is even faster
Reply 15
Original post by Mcnubn
Japan was previously the fastest, pretty sure China is even faster


I think you're right, but I took your post to imply that China was something of a miracle, when in reality it's the latest in a string of such developments in East Asia, after Japan and S Korea. In regards to Japan though, a lot of people at the time were saying that it was going to overtake the US because of its high growth rates, but then its growth fizzled out. A lot of people expect a similar thing to happen with China. After all, its economic growth came at the cost of huge environmental degradation and currency manipulation, any one of which could potentially come back to bite it in the bum. It has an obvious demographic problem as well. Thus, a lot of the hype about China is somewhat misplaced. Will it come to usurp the US as a global hegemon? Very unlikely. Will it be significantly stronger and will the 'West' have to be more accommodating to it as Ikenberry and Zakariah suggest? Almost definitely...
i agree. in my opinion, the whole china taking over the world thing has been seriously exaggerated. a lot of the chinese economy is foreign owned, not to mention the enormous internal problems that the country currently has.
China is in serious trouble. Their stupid one child policy has left them with an aging population who needs to be cared for and a shortage of young people to produce. Wages are starting to quickly in China as this fall in the labour supply starts to make its way around the system. This will make them less competitive and stall their growth.

The one child policy could very well collapse China.
Reply 18
Original post by storeypj
I don't understand this hype about the Chinese economy and how they are going to lead the world economically. They have 1.4 billion people so of course their economy is going to be large. We don't even know for certain if it is going to surpass the US (which has only 300 million people) now with the demographics, pollution, property bubble etc.

So what is this hype with China? If you look at standard of living or GDP per capita, they are still very much behind developed countries and i think that is what matters. So why does everybody think that what China or India is doing is so extraordinary? Its a simple numbers game...


I agree, just been reading this story about a new brain-computer interface developed in the US.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/9269856/Paralysed-woman-uses-mind-to-control-robotic-arm.html

Could the Chinese do a project like that, independently?

No way in hell.

China should be commended for taking so many people out of poverty and bringing them into the global economy. In the future their people will be able to make good scientific advancements for the lot of humanity.

However, they are a medium income country with some high income areas. Yes, they have 1.4 billion citizens. There's also 1 billion people in the west, who are predominately unified under two polities of 300 million and 500 million (US/EU) respectively on two different continents. Viewed through these lens it is less impressive, as it means that even in the most optimistic best case scenario, they will make it as far as being our equal. This of course, won't happen.

Ultimately the economy that consumes 25 units of food and outputs 10 units of advanced robotics is a lot more impressive then the one that just consumes 50 units of food, even if GDP is broadly equal between the two.

Please don't mention India in the same breath as China. China is making very real developments, India is just a glorified Africa with nukes (yes, they have skyscrapers in Africa too).
Reply 19
Original post by Classical Liberal
China is in serious trouble. Their stupid one child policy has left them with an aging population who needs to be cared for and a shortage of young people to produce. Wages are starting to quickly in China as this fall in the labour supply starts to make its way around the system. This will make them less competitive and stall their growth.

The one child policy could very well collapse China.


Could you imagine how high international food prices would be if they didn't implement the 1 child policy? -.-

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