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Is Cameron winning the Scottish Independence argument...for the SNP?

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  • View Poll Results: Will Scotland become independent after a 2014 referendum?
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    (Original post by Cmca1)
    Off course the UK matters. You say Scotland will be over dependent on oil and Scotland will be exposed to volatile oil markets. If Scotland becomes independent, where will the UK get its oil from?
    You do realise that the UK is already a net importer of oil, don't you? And that we already import huge quantities of the stuff because North Sea oil isn't suitable for anything like all our needs. And that any economy that depends heavily on oil (which Scotland would but the UK no longer does) will have to work very hard to replace it over the next thirty years?
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    (Original post by Cmca1)

    So, in the event that Scotland ever needed a bailout, do you think the UK would ignore them? It would be entirely in British interests for London to do so.
    That wouldn't be clear until it happened, would it? Britain's attitude would depend on what Scotland owed Britain, just as it did with Ireland.

    But the fact you are talking about hypothetical bailouts says it all.
    You raised the matter.
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    (Original post by Cmca1)
    Your Chancellor, George Osbourne:
    Not yours, then?
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    (Original post by Cmca1)
    Off course the UK matters. You say Scotland will be over dependent on oil and Scotland will be exposed to volatile oil markets. If Scotland becomes independent, where will the UK get its oil from? Most North Sea Oil is in Scottish waters. Or...if Scotland stays in the UK, as you say, the oil will run out eventually, what does the UK plan to do? Either way, Scotland in the UK or not will equally susceptible to volatile market prices.

    You believe Scotland will be entirely dependent on oil, I don't. I've never said Scotland will be entirely dependent on oil, you have. You believe what you want.

    And once again, you are missing a fundamental point, that the Scottish oil which Scotland will have control over upon independence, is not considered by the Barnett formula, that's why it's so easy for unionists and English imperialists to knock Scotland down and to say that it won't survive alone.

    If you don't think Scotland is strong economically, and you live in England, why is it in the interests of the rest of the UK for Scotland to stay in the union.

    You either know Scotland can survive alone and don't want to admit it or you don't believe Scotland can survive alone and are stupid for wanting to hold on to them.
    Same place we get most of it already. Norway.

    The UK will have a far easier time than Scotland due to its size. We are far more reliant on the services industry and things like finance than we are oil. Even our manufacturing industry is pretty good. The UK including Scotland would be far better off facing the end of North Sea oil than Scotland will alone. As you keep saying Scotland is a nation of 5 million people the UK of 60 million would have a far easier time than a dependent on oil Scotland will.

    18% of your economy based on finite resources. Why can you not see just how much this throws into question the long term ability of Scotland to prosper as an independent nation?

    Lol English imperials. Get over yourself and quit being a tool. No one in England sees Scotland as some colony there for our own benefit. I just think there are fundamental flaws in independence that no one seems able to answer.

    I think Scotland will do better in the union, it will be economically stronger in the union than it will on its own. Just because Scotland does well in the union does not mean it would do well on its own. Independence throws a whole load of new issues at Scotland. Debt Defence foreign policy, its Currency ect I could go on but the independence movement seems reluctant to answer any of these. issues.
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    (Original post by Good bloke)
    You do realise that the UK is already a net importer of oil, don't you? And that we already import huge quantities of the stuff because North Sea oil isn't suitable for anything like all our needs. And that any economy that depends heavily on oil (which Scotland would but the UK no longer does) will have to work very hard to replace it over the next thirty years?
    I rest my case, the UK is already susceptible to volatile oil prices. So what would Scotland have to do lose? They'd be exporting oil and making use of North Sea Oil. But they certainly wouldn'y be completely dependent on it. Scotland has the greatest potential in Europe for off-shore wind, hydro and tidal energy.
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    (Original post by Good bloke)
    That wouldn't be clear until it happened, would it? Britain's attitude would depend on what Scotland owed Britain, just as it did with Ireland.


    You raised the matter.
    I think if Ireland is the Uk's largest export market and Ireland is the Uk's largest export market, Scotland would be somewhere as close.

    I don'd advocate Scottish Independence on the basis of bailouts from the UK, but you've been advocating the Union on the basis of an Independent Scotland requiring one.

    (Original post by Good bloke)
    Not yours, then?
    He's an Englishman presiding over the finances of the whole of the UK. We've had Scottish chancellors too and finance ministers in Edinburgh, but the next time someone who is Scottish manages our budget I should hope its from Edinburgh as an Independent nation.
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    (Original post by Cmca1)
    I rest my case, the UK is already susceptible to volatile oil prices.
    :banghead:

    There is a massive difference between an economy that takes 18% of its tax from oil and one that takes 2% of its tax form that source.
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    (Original post by Cmca1)
    I don'd advocate Scottish Independence on the basis of bailouts from the UK, but you've been advocating the Union on the basis of an Independent Scotland requiring one.
    No I haven't.
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    (Original post by Aj12)
    Same place we get most of it already. Norway.

    The UK will have a far easier time than Scotland due to its size. We are far more reliant on the services industry and things like finance than we are oil. Even our manufacturing industry is pretty good. The UK including Scotland would be far better off facing the end of North Sea oil than Scotland will alone. As you keep saying Scotland is a nation of 5 million people the UK of 60 million would have a far easier time than a dependent on oil Scotland will.

    18% of your economy based on finite resources. Why can you not see just how much this throws into question the long term ability of Scotland to prosper as an independent nation?

    Lol English imperials. Get over yourself and quit being a tool. No one in England sees Scotland as some colony there for our own benefit. I just think there are fundamental flaws in independence that no one seems able to answer.

    I think Scotland will do better in the union, it will be economically stronger in the union than it will on its own. Just because Scotland does well in the union does not mean it would do well on its own. Independence throws a whole load of new issues at Scotland. Debt Defence foreign policy, its Currency ect I could go on but the independence movement seems reluctant to answer any of these. issues.
    Fair enough, you have a much different opinion on what an Independent Scotland would look like than I do.

    I've stated my opinions on the economic situation for Scotland already. All the unionists seem to do is rant on about how we'd be over-reliant on oil. The SNP don't support Independence purely because of oil, so if you're interested in answers to your question, you should read their manifesto, instead of articles in the Economist and Daily Mail.

    And btw, I say imperialism, because a lot of unionists rant on about the union with no economic, social or political argument to back up their assertions, they base their arguments purely on Scotland not being capable of surviving independently and Scotland being British etc - no sense at all.
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    (Original post by Good bloke)
    :banghead:

    There is a massive difference between an economy that takes 18% of its tax from oil and one that takes 2% of its tax form that source.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17231140

    " "The AA has asked the chancellor to do what he can to protect the UK economy from fuel market volatility and record high prices which are stemming growth." "

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/c...-make-ten.html

    Norway according to this article has the highest petrol prices in the world, but it has oil. It's also a small country (roughly the size of Scotland) with similar use of renewable energy.

    The article also states:

    "However, despite the eye-watering cost of petrol, it is roughly 22p a litre more expensive than in Britain on average – workers in the country have higher wages than all the other countries on the list.
    The average worker has a disposable income of £2,681.07 after tax, meaning that 7.4 per cent of wages are spent on petrol – the lowest amount out of all of the countries."

    UK - 7th highest petrol prices in the world. Imagine where it might be if it was importing oil from an independent Scotland?
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    (Original post by Good bloke)
    Yes. Just like Greece.

    (Original post by Good bloke)
    What about it? Britain protected its interests, no more.
    (Original post by Good bloke)
    No I haven't.
    You have a wee bit.
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    (Original post by Cmca1)
    Fair enough, you have a much different opinion on what an Independent Scotland would look like than I do.

    I've stated my opinions on the economic situation for Scotland already. All the unionists seem to do is rant on about how we'd be over-reliant on oil. The SNP don't support Independence purely because of oil, so if you're interested in answers to your question, you should read their manifesto, instead of articles in the Economist and Daily Mail.

    And btw, I say imperialism, because a lot of unionists rant on about the union with no economic, social or political argument to back up their assertions, they base their arguments purely on Scotland not being capable of surviving independently and Scotland being British etc - no sense at all.
    Its a real issue that you can't answer nor can the SNP apparently. How are you planning dealing with the huge over reliance on oil? I just read through the Manifesto and they don't actually even mention the issue. Likely because like so many things Salmond and the SNP does not have an answer. Lol where did the Daily Mail come from? Nothing wrong with the points the Economist has raised about independence.

    It's a fair point. Scotland wants independence so unionists question the viability of it and those who want independence seem in many cases unable to answer these questions. I have just been talking about oil, I have seen in this thread how you have been dodging questions about how expensive borrowing would be for Scotland. Also I don't see how questioning Scottish independence makes people imperialists....
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    (Original post by Aj12)
    Its a real issue that you can't answer nor can the SNP apparently. How are you planning dealing with the huge over reliance on oil? I just read through the Manifesto and they don't actually even mention the issue. Likely because like so many things Salmond and the SNP does not have an answer. Lol where did the Daily Mail come from? Nothing wrong with the points the Economist has raised about independence.

    It's a fair point. Scotland wants independence so unionists question the viability of it and those who want independence seem in many cases unable to answer these questions. I have just been talking about oil, I have seen in this thread how you have been dodging questions about how expensive borrowing would be for Scotland. Also I don't see how questioning Scottish independence makes people imperialists....
    I've answered questions about over reliance on oil. I never started mentioning oil as the main reason for Independence and neither have the SNP. As for over-reliance on oil, they're your words, not mine.

    I've included an article from the Daily Mail earlier, you should have a read, fine piece of anti-Independence journalism.

    I've spoken already about finance and bailouts. And you've asked about borrowing rates, mentioned in an article from the Economist, which I've already stated my opinion on. For further guidance, please read some of the comments under that article, a lot of people talking a lot of sense, pro-union and pro-independence folk too.

    And for what I've said about imperialists, please see above.
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    (Original post by RyanT)
    NI is Scotland's colony. If Scotland leaves, NI will be following it.
    No it isn't. It's the UK's colony inhabited by people of (mostly) Scottish ancestry. Ulstermen consider themselves to be exactly that - Ulstermen - not Scottish. How many Ultstermen consider themselves to be British? Well that's another matter entirely.
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    (Original post by Cmca1)
    I'm not missing your point. I'd like to know how reliant the UK economy is on North Sea at present also? What's the UK's plan for the economy when it can no longer export oil and will be forced to import from abroad. Every nation is equally susceptible to market changes in oil prices, imagine the UK having no oil and being reliant on foreign oil prices. So your argument works both ways, what's the UK's plan for when oil runs out?

    Secondly, without changing the subject but sticking to spending and the economy, I'd be interested in knowing how much Scotland contributes to defence spending. Would a small independent Scotland need to spend as much on defence as it does now within the UK? I don't think so. That money could be placed into infrastructural projects, business support, renewable energy, education and health spending etc, in other words, it could have a more meaningful contribution to the economy, instead of being squandered in the Middle-East or on Trident.
    An unbiased article someone posted earlier about defence in an independent Scotland said that Scotland currently contributes about £3.3billion towards The UK's defence. Experts have estimated that for Scotland to set up its own armed forces it would cost about £2billion for armed forces about the size of Ireland's modest forces, and it would still cost less that £3.3billion for armed forces similar in size to Denmarks substantial forces.
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    Like banging your head against a brick wall....
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    (Original post by Aj12)
    I think Scotland will do better in the union,
    Why?

    it will be economically stronger in the union than it will on its own.
    Why?

    Just because Scotland does well in the union does not mean it would do well on its own. Independence throws a whole load of new issues at Scotland. Debt Defence foreign policy, its Currency ect I could go on but the independence movement seems reluctant to answer any of these. issues.
    Debt - carve it up by population.

    Defence - Small Scottish military force.

    Foreign Policy - Similar to the ROI. Personally, the way the SNP have approached foreign policy has been one of the most attractive aspects of their campaign for independence. A non-nuclear, non-aggressor Scotland. In the 2000s the SNP built a lot on being opposed to 'an illegal war in Iraq' and thus attracted support from liberal voters who had been turned off Labour by the UK's military actions. At that time all the talk was of how an independent Scotland would not have the ambition of the UK to be a global player, and would modestly seek to defend its borders with minimum military capacity.

    Currency - Maintain Sterling. Dollarisation occurs all over the world. Sterlingisation would just be a variation on what already happens.

    Atm I currently lean towards unionism however people like Aj12 need to argue a different message. Claiming Scotland is unable to be independent is obviously untrue and only turns people towards voting yes in 2014. Scotland is the third wealthiest part of the UK after London and the South East (a MASSIVELY subsidised region - with London by far the most subsidised part of this country...via being the centre of government and in receiving the most public money per heads and huge investments in things like infrastructure and so on). Scotland could very easily be an independent country.
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    (Original post by Cyanohydrin)
    Why?



    Why?



    Debt - carve it up by population.

    Defence - Small Scottish military force.

    Foreign Policy - Similar to the ROI. Personally, the way the SNP have approached foreign policy has been one of the most attractive aspects of their campaign for independence. A non-nuclear, non-aggressor Scotland. In the 2000s the SNP built a lot on being opposed to 'an illegal war in Iraq' and thus attracted support from liberal voters who had been turned off Labour by the UK's military actions. At that time all the talk was of how an independent Scotland would not have the ambition of the UK to be a global player, and would modestly seek to defend its borders with minimum military capacity.

    Currency - Maintain Sterling. Dollarisation occurs all over the world. Sterlingisation would just be a variation on what already happens.

    Atm I currently lean towards unionism however people like Aj12 need to argue a different message. Claiming Scotland is unable to be independent is obviously untrue and only turns people towards voting yes in 2014. Scotland is the third wealthiest part of the UK after London and the South East (a MASSIVELY subsidised region - with London by far the most subsidised part of this country...via being the centre of government and in receiving the most public money per heads and huge investments in things like infrastructure and so on). Scotland could very easily be an independent country.
    Spot on.
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    (Original post by Barden)
    No it isn't. It's the UK's colony inhabited by people of (mostly) Scottish ancestry. Ulstermen consider themselves to be exactly that - Ulstermen - not Scottish. How many Ultstermen consider themselves to be British? Well that's another matter entirely.
    If you go to NI, loads of people fly Saltires. Ulster Unionists who see themselves as British often either don't like or mistrust the English but see the Scots as their brothers. It is pretty screwed up. Obviously with independence it would remain in the UK because Scotland would want nothing to do with the morons that populate NI (well apart from some people in Glasgow...)
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    (Original post by Cyanohydrin)
    If you go to NI, loads of people fly Saltires. Ulster Unionists who see themselves as British often either don't like or mistrust the English but see the Scots as their brothers. It is pretty screwed up. Obviously with independence it would remain in the UK because Scotland would want nothing to do with the morons that populate NI (well apart from some people in Glasgow...)
    Exactly. I would say though, an Independent Scotland might assist a United Ireland. Unionists in Ireland strongly associate themselves with Scotland. If Scotland leaves the Union, I reckon it will only be a matter of time before NI follows. Wales may take a little longer.

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