[Student2806]

I reckon it'll be a very low turnout. Americans are faced with choosing the least worst candidate - an incumbent who's underwhelmed more than any president in history against a GOP candidate no one can really connect to.
For that reason I can't pick a winner. It'll be incredibly close and may come down to one or two deciding states.

[Made in the USA]

If Romney decides to pick Marco Rubio as vice president I could picture Colorado New Mexico Nevada falling in the GOP column. Florida is already likely to go republican but this would make it a certainty.

[Super Cicero]

(Original post by Made in the USA)
If Romney decides to pick Marco Rubio as vice president I could picture Colorado New Mexico Nevada falling in the GOP column. Florida is already likely to go republican but this would make it a certainty.

Hispanics generally see themselves as being "Mexican" or "Cuban" rather than "Hispanic" so I'm not really sure having Cuban-American Rubio on the ticket would help that much amongst Mexicans in New Mexico and Colorado.

Anyway, Rubio has said he doesn't want to be VP. IMO, Rubio thinks Romney is going to lose and that he will have a better chance of winning the nomination in 2016 if he hasn't been running mate on a failed ticket.

I do think Romney has a good chance (and I hope he wins), but honestly I think the following scenario is most likely:

2012: Obama defeats Romney
2016: Andrew Cuomo wins Democrat nomination, defeating Martin O'Malley
2016: Marco Rubio wins Republican nomination, defeating Chris Christie
2016: In November, Rubio defeats Cuomo.
2017: Marco Rubio becomes 45th POTUS and first Hispanic president.

[anarchism101]

(Original post by Made in the USA)
If Romney decides to pick Marco Rubio as vice president I could picture Colorado New Mexico Nevada falling in the GOP column. Florida is already likely to go republican but this would make it a certainty.

Colorado yes, Nevada maybe, but no chance in New Mexico. Obama has a two-digit lead without even taking into account that Gary Johnson will probably do well there and that will mostly hurt Romney.

[Made in the USA]

(Original post by anarchism101)
Colorado yes, Nevada maybe, but no chance in New Mexico. Obama has a two-digit lead without even taking into account that Gary Johnson will probably do well there and that will mostly hurt Romney.

It's a long shot but it could happen. Bush defeated Kerry in 2004 in new Mexico so it's definitely a possibility.

[R.P.Everything.]

(Original post by Made in the USA)
If Romney decides to pick Marco Rubio as vice president I could picture Colorado New Mexico Nevada falling in the GOP column. Florida is already likely to go republican but this would make it a certainty.

Obama really played that recent immigration move very smartly - he basically implemented Marco Rubio's version of the DREAM act, allowing the children of illegal immigrants to stay in America. That's taken out any advantage that Rubio would have provided Romney with, and both Romney and Rubio have been forced to (if somewhat cautiously) endorse Obama's policy change.

Besides, I don't think Romney will choose Rubio - recent word is that he hasn't even been vetted by Romney's VP team, despite the go ahead from Romney to start vetting 2 months ago.

[R.P.Everything.]

(Original post by Super Cicero)
==

Anyway, Rubio has said he doesn't want to be VP. IMO, Rubio thinks Romney is going to lose and that he will have a better chance of winning the nomination in 2016 if he hasn't been running mate on a failed ticket.

I do think Romney has a good chance (and I hope he wins), but honestly I think the following scenario is most likely:

2012: Obama defeats Romney
2016: Andrew Cuomo wins Democrat nomination, defeating Martin O'Malley
2016: Marco Rubio wins Republican nomination, defeating Chris Christie
2016: In November, Rubio defeats Cuomo.
2017: Marco Rubio becomes 45th POTUS and first Hispanic president.

I think Hillary Clinton is doing the same - she's not going to be associated with Obama's 2nd term in case its a failure, as she's already said she will step down as secretary of state after the elections. Then, she will be the huge favourite to win the democratic nomination, as she came close in '08, and will have 4 years to plan her campaign.

Clinton vs Rubio 2016? That will be interesting.

[Super Cicero]

(Original post by R.P.Everything.)
I think Hillary Clinton is doing the same - she's not going to be associated with Obama's 2nd term in case its a failure, as she's already said she will step down as secretary of state after the elections. Then, she will be the huge favourite to win the democratic nomination, as she came close in '08, and will have 4 years to plan her campaign.

Clinton vs Rubio 2016? That will be interesting.

Yeah she definetly would get the nomination if she ran, but she has said many times that she wants to retire from politics and she won't be running in 2016. Whether she's telling the truth or not - well we'll have to wait and see.

Clinton would probably beat Rubio in 2016 though, if she was to run.

I'm kind of hoping for Brian Schweitzer v Chris Christie. Fat guy v fat guy!

[Agenda Suicide]

America sure is lacking inspiration this time round.

[Made in the USA]

(Original post by R.P.Everything.)
Obama really played that recent immigration move very smartly - he basically implemented Marco Rubio's version of the DREAM act, allowing the children of illegal immigrants to stay in America. That's taken out any advantage that Rubio would have provided Romney with, and both Romney and Rubio have been forced to (if somewhat cautiously) endorse Obama's policy change.

Besides, I don't think Romney will choose Rubio - recent word is that he hasn't even been vetted by Romney's VP team, despite the go ahead from Romney to start vetting 2 months ago.

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...p#.T-G8z7-0bUN

[internetguru]

Rubio doesn't look like he will be the vp pick

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1609143.html

[anarchism101]

I don't think he'll pick Rubio because the GOP leaders want Rubio to run for President and they're worried that if Romney loses either this time or in 2016, that will tarnish Rubio's potential run. And with good reason; if Romney does win, I doubt he'll get the level of popularity that Obama originally had, or that Bush got post-9/11. By the time it gets to 2016, unless he's done something extraordinary, he'll be too unpopular to be reelected.

[Made in the USA]

(Original post by internetguru)
Rubio doesn't look like he will be the vp pick

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1609143.html

Did you read the link I posted?

"There was a story that originated today apparently at ABC based upon reports of supposedly outside unnamed advisers of mine. I can't imagine who such people are," Romney said. "But I can tell you this: They know nothing about the vice presidential selection or evaluation process. There are only two people in this country who know who are being vetted and who are not, and that's Beth Myers and myself.

"The story was entirely false," he said. "Marco Rubio is being thoroughly vetted as part of our process."

[anarchism101]

This might interest people: http://www.270towin.com/

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=nfA
^Taking the ones I've left out there as swing states, the site gives Obama an 81% chance of winning.

[R.P.Everything.]

(Original post by anarchism101)
This might interest people: http://www.270towin.com/

http://www.270towin.com/2012_electio....php?mapid=nfA
^Taking the ones I've left out there as swing states, the site gives Obama an 81% chance of winning.

And that's without Florida as well.

[muddywaters51]

Gary Johnson by a landslide

[heyhey922]

(Original post by R.P.Everything.)
And that's without Florida as well.

Yeh, If Obama wins Ohio or Florida on election night( I realise the latter is unlikely) then its game over for Romney. But for Obama to loose he is gonna have to lose a whole host of swing sates he's currently polling rather well in.

[Made in the USA]

(Original post by heyhey922)
Yeh, If Obama wins Ohio or Florida on election night( I realise the latter is unlikely) then its game over for Romney. But for Obama to loose he is gonna have to lose a whole host of swing sates he's currently polling rather well in.

I don't see any swing states Obama is polling well in. He's not polling well in Oregon. He isn't polling well in Michigan. He's not doing well in Iowa, Florida, or Wisconsin. Many of these places aren't even "swing states". Wisconsin is the Sweden of the Midwest, and he is supposed to win that state by a landslide, yet it's up for grabs.

I'm also skeptical of the polls. The polls said Wisconsin's recall election would be close and the democrats got their asses kicked. The polls turned out to be wrong by seven points. The 2010 midterm elections were supposed to be close and it was a bloodbath for the democrats the likes of which haven't been seen for 70 years. Obama didn't even do well against McCain, one of the biggest schmucks who ever ran for president in US history. Romney is no mccain. Mccain didnt want to throw mud, but romney is a real dirty player. Obama has no chance

[Flair91]

I think it will come down to the economy. America has a brilliant start to 2012 but since then the job growth figures have been disappointing in the 2nd quarter of this year. If the Eurozone stabilises expectations of the future in the USA will improve and people will happily vote for the incumbent. However If the economy falls into a recession, goes into stagnation (like Europe), unemployement rises, inflation rises - all these factors may be able to dislodge Obama and push Romney into the White House.

tl;dr

Economy continues to improve = Obama win,
Economy struggles = Romney win.

[King Kebab]

Obama will win. He has an improving economy and the Osama Bin Laden card to play.