[siani-chan]

(Original post by TheSownRose)
RE crashes: There were a lot in the early stages of last year - Wiggins and a few other good riders were taken out in them, plus some that weren't major but were still crashes.

RE Wiggins and other GC contenders: Obviously hope that he does well, but I'll wait to see him in the mountains before making my call on whether he'll get yellow or not. Going on what I remember from a couple of years ago, I don't think he'll do well enough ... but he may have improved since then.

At the moment, I'm fancying Evans for it - he's crazy enough to not want to let it go after one year (remember the year he completed with a broken elbow for most of it? ), plus he seems to be on good form (he's been getting towards the front, where Wiggins has just been happy to roll in.) Schleck isn't lost if they've managed to improve the time trialing; I don't know what their trainers do with them, but both Schlecks are horrendous at time trials - they're all over the road, all over the bike... I don't think he is good enough in the mountains for performance there to completely make up for the time trial.

RE Sagan and the green jersey: I like Sagan. I feel sorry for Cavendish, but I don't think he's a contender this year and hope Sagan wins the green jersey. Looking at him, I think he'll be better at getting through the mountains than Cavendish, who is basically dragged through and not disqualified on technicalities (I can't remember the exact number, but if so many are below the time none are disqualified.)


RE 'Who I feel most sorry for': Andy Schleck. He wins 2010 TdF two years too late, so he never got the joy of standing on the podium wearing the jersey and being kissed by the girls, and now he injures himself so he can't compete this year. If he was competing, I think people would have at least mentioned he is officially the 2010 winner, even if just in a sentence at the beginning like 'And Contador's disqualification makes Andy Schleck the post-race winner of 2010' - as it is, nothing. Plus, he comes across as a really nice guy in interviews and is one of my personal favourites (not necessarily for winning, I just like him,) so I'm sad he's not in it.

I know what you mean about Wiggins, his climbing was never very spectacular - but we haven't seen him climb in the tour since 2010, and presumably he's had A LOT of training since then. If he weren't capable, I don't think Sky would push for him so much.

I think he's just doing enough to roll in at the moment to preserve his energy - there's still two weeks left! As long as he doesn't lose time to Cadel/Cancellara then there isn't much of a problem.

However, I do agree with what you say about Cadel. He's just too good at running himself into the ground and bouncing back. A few stages last year, he literally looked like he was going to die of exhaustion, and yet the next day he's back on the bike all fine and dandy!

Andy Schleck, definitely - I'm sad that he's not in it this year either. And next year he might not be in great form either..

I feel a bit sorry for Cavendish too but Sky are not HTC, and he made his choice, so. I think though, he seems to be setting his hopes more on a stage win in Paris and getting Wiggo the yellow. And the olympics.

[TheSownRose]

(Original post by siani-chan)
I know what you mean about Wiggins, his climbing was never very spectacular - but we haven't seen him climb in the tour since 2010, and presumably he's had A LOT of training since then. If he weren't capable, I don't think Sky would push for him so much.

I think he's just doing enough to roll in at the moment to preserve his energy - there's still two weeks left! As long as he doesn't lose time to Cadel/Cancellara then there isn't much of a problem.

Exactly, hence why I have to see what he's like before making my call. And yeah, it may well be a strategy to conserve energy.

I feel a bit sorry for Cavendish too but Sky are not HTC, and he made his choice, so. I think though, he seems to be setting his hopes more on a stage win in Paris and getting Wiggo the yellow. And the olympics.

He did, and I suspect they offered him something to make up for it - a lot of money, or a long contract, or both. Looking at him so far, though, I'm wondering if he's lost his touch a bit... Sprinters never have the longest careers, it's what you get for requiring speed, and I think he's being replaced by newer, younger people. That or (possibly and) he's doing what I suspect and placing his priority this year with the Olympics, in spite of what he may be saying to the contrary.

I'm still not convinced he'll even make it to Paris.


I'm surprised we're not seeing more from Mark Renshaw (unless of course he's not in it ) - I always thought he'd be an excellent sprinter in his own right, not just as Cavendish's lead out man.

[siani-chan]

(Original post by TheSownRose)
Exactly, hence why I have to see what he's like before making my call. And yeah, it may well be a strategy to conserve energy.


He did, and I suspect they offered him something to make up for it - a lot of money, or a long contract, or both. Looking at him so far, though, I'm wondering if he's lost his touch a bit... Sprinters never have the longest careers, it's what you get for requiring speed, and I think he's being replaced by newer, younger people. That or (possibly and) he's doing what I suspect and placing his priority this year with the Olympics, in spite of what he may be saying to the contrary.

I'm still not convinced he'll even make it to Paris.


I'm surprised we're not seeing more from Mark Renshaw (unless of course he's not in it ) - I always thought he'd be an excellent sprinter in his own right, not just as Cavendish's lead out man.

Ah okay

I think there are too many new, young riders out there for Cav to compete with. It's sad, but then again it's nice for all the coverage not to be focused on him for a change Hahah yep, I think Olympics are definitely up there for him. I guess it's a choice - grand tour or olympics! I know what you mean, that disqualification thing (what actually is this? I can't remember T.T) might knock him out at this rate. He's had some pretty bad luck being stuck behind all these crashes, but then I would say he's brought that upon himself for not positioning himself well enough within the peloton.

So true! I just looked him up and he's miles behind in the points classification. Well, 11th. But with Sagan's 209 points to his 55, he's got a long way to go.. But yeah. Where has he even been in this tour

I'm just waiting for Sami Sanchez to appear. We will probably see him tomorrow.

[idontthinkso]

Glad to see some fellow cycling enthusiasts!
Some thoughts:

- Peter Sagan is proving to everybody that he will be the best overall cyclist in the world in a year or two (he already had me convinced);

- Regarding the British interest in this Tour, I don't think Wiggins will win. Both his subpar downhill abilities and three week endurance will play a decisive factor. I don't think Evans will let go the opportunity of winning a Contador-Andy free Tour. Menchov is also bigger threat than he is given credit for. I put Wiggins and Nibali with the same odds of winning. One is a better time trialist the other a slightly better climber and downhill specialist.

Still if Wiggins hopes to ever win the Tour it has to be this year: significant time-trial distance, pathetically few mountain finishes, not so tough third week and no mountain stage before last time trial. I don't think he will win but seems like the organization really cut out the course for him. And hey, even Sastre won a Tour!

[Good bloke]

(Original post by siani-chan)
Well, 11th. But with Sagan's 209 points to his 55

Well, 4th with 129 points after today's stage.

[Adrian87]

(Original post by TheSownRose)
Exactly, hence why I have to see what he's like before making my call. And yeah, it may well be a strategy to conserve energy.


He did, and I suspect they offered him something to make up for it - a lot of money, or a long contract, or both. Looking at him so far, though, I'm wondering if he's lost his touch a bit... Sprinters never have the longest careers, it's what you get for requiring speed, and I think he's being replaced by newer, younger people. That or (possibly and) he's doing what I suspect and placing his priority this year with the Olympics, in spite of what he may be saying to the contrary.

I'm still not convinced he'll even make it to Paris.


I'm surprised we're not seeing more from Mark Renshaw (unless of course he's not in it ) - I always thought he'd be an excellent sprinter in his own right, not just as Cavendish's lead out man.

Mark Renshaw is in team Rabobank. He is incredibly quick, however, i dont think he has the kick over the last 50 metres to really challenge the likes of cav, greipel and sagan etc.

[siani-chan]

(Original post by Good bloke)
Well, 4th with 129 points after today's stage.

Sorry - my fault. We were talking about Mark Renshaw.

[Mr Bee]

(Original post by Adrian87)
Mark Renshaw is in team Rabobank. He is incredibly quick, however, i dont think he has the kick over the last 50 metres to really challenge the likes of cav, greipel and sagan etc.

Cav went down though


This was posted from The Student Room's iPhone/iPad

[Teofilo]

Any thoughts on today's stage?

When I went through the stage profiles before the Tour I (tentatively) had this stage down as a Schleck victory. Hard to know what sort of shape he's in after yesterday's shenanigans though.

Looking at it again I can't help thinking that the finish will be perfect for Valverde.

I couldn't resist backing Schleck and Valverde at 20/1 and 11/1 respectively last night.

I hope Pierre Roland does something, though it probably isn't tough enough for him to shine yet. I'm fast becoming a huge fan of his though.

[Sianeh]

Gah...anyone else had problems with itv4 video coverage of today's stage? Mine is all fuzzy and wondering if its itv4 or my computer?! Glad to hear its a Brit in yellow though.

[siani-chan]

Yay, Froome in polkadot and Wiggins in yellow - result!

I was at the pub with some friends so only got to watch the highlights, team sky were impressive. However, it doesn't look as if they'll shake Evans off, he won't allow it. Very impressed with him.

I'm glad there were no major crashes today (from what I saw anyway, can anyone confirm?), everyone's safe for another day. Tomorrow's stage, looks like absolute hell though - 7 climbs?! They aren't half throwing them into the deep end are they?!

[roh]

I hope someone like Sanchez, Nibali or Schleck decides to just go for it tomorrow and attack early, though I fear they won't after Sky's display today.

Could see someone like Rolland staying away tomorrow whilst the GC guys watch each other in the Peloton.

Also, and it's sadly not too likely, be interesting if Cancellara stays with Wiggins/Evans' group tomorrow as he could take back yellow on Monday if he produces a time trial like his '09 World Champs win.

Also, agree that Sagan looks like he could be an absolute machine in a few years.

[Irishguy2K10]

i think tomorrow is a day for the likes of Sanchez and Scarponi to succeed but if the sky train has anything to do with it, they will be reeled back in. Rabobank are surprisingly disappointing in the tdf so far, from all the other big races throughout the year I thought they were going to be a threat.

[siani-chan]

I'm looking forward to seeing Sanchez have a go but I agree that Sky probably won't let him. But I hope he can find a gap - he climbs and descends so well, today's stage will be good for him.

[gozatron]

Poor old Sami Sanchez

Probably no chance for London then if its a confirmed broken clavicle!

[NorwichtoBristol]

Didn't realise there was a thread for this

In regards to Cavendish, didn't they say that he has lost some speed as he's lost some muscle so he can sustain the sprint for longer. He was unlucky though to lose out in some of the sprints due to crashes and a puncture.

I really hope Wiggins wins it as he'll be the first British person to win it. He's got a good chance to as Schlek and Contadour are out as well as Sky planning every stage down to the last detail. However I do think Evans will run him close and on the sharper climbs where Wiggins isn't as good, he'll attack.

[siani-chan]

Poor Sanchez

[RyanT]

Currently switching between Wiggins in yellow and Murray in the wimbledon final. Class weekend

That group off the front looks a bit big.

[roh]

(Original post by RyanT)
Currently switching between Wiggins in yellow and Murray in the wimbledon final. Class weekend

That group off the front looks a bit big.

Think I'm going to get RSI

[siani-chan]

This second group with Evans and Wiggins... Blimey. They're not going to let each other go. All downhill from here!

Eurosport commentary cracks me up - the guy in the FDJ car they described him as "he looks like he's having kittens"

Such a good finish, well deserved by Pinot and I'm so glad Wiggins caught Evans - I nearly had a fit when Evans tried to attack XD