The Next Superpower
Discuss events occurring around the world, relations between countries, or actions of any group or organisation with an international focus.
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Re: The Next SuperpowerAmerica won't crumble at all, it's population and size is too big, unlike the likes of Britain & Japan.(Original post by mali167)
All great empires crumble. Soviets, Imperial Japanese. America's day will come too.
I think we won't see one country dominate in future in the we have seen. -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerWhat's with the Latin American countries? They all have medium or small populations and bad institutions, and are in a part of the world no one cares about. Mexico makes as much sense as Iran.(Original post by LarrikinLibertine)
I actually laughed out loud when I read Iran on that list.
I think Nigeria or Indonesia have more of a shot as wildcards, but still not much. If Mercasur properly unifies - and it's a long way behind even the EU - maybe it could be one of the second/third tier Great Powers.
I can't tell if you've given up on the debate and started trolling, or what.(Original post by Zenomorph)
UK rolling annual deficit is GBP150 Billion, that is every year. Who do you think props most of this up ?
Yes, Switzerland is much stronger than UK, isn't that obvious ? -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerI agree.(Original post by Top Banana)
You may laugh, but if the EU survives the current crisis and merges as some predict, I think it will attain superpower status... -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerI agree.(Original post by rocket0612)
America won't crumble at all, it's population and size is too big, unlike the likes of Britain & Japan.
I think we won't see one country dominate in future in the we have seen.
China et al have a long way to go to reach the heights of the USA. They will be number 1, for a very, very long time yet. -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerReally ? what a coincidence, was just about to say the same about you. I suppose that is the end of our little conversation.(Original post by DynamicSyngery)
What's with the Latin American countries? They all have medium or small populations and bad institutions, and are in a part of the world no one cares about. Mexico makes as much sense as Iran.
I think Nigeria or Indonesia have more of a shot as wildcards, but still not much. If Mercasur properly unifies - and it's a long way behind even the EU - maybe it could be one of the second/third tier Great Powers.
I can't tell if you've given up on the debate and started trolling, or what. -
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Re: The Next Superpoweri read a book about the 21st century predictions and it was saying that although maybe not great superpowers, poland and turkey may rise and become powerful countries by 2050 due to their locations and economical growth rates.. but i doubt they'd be a superpower.
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Re: The Next SuperpowerNot China because it is joined to the hip with the USA and because of it's unstable demographics and not India because it is far from being as widely developed as the Western world (due to their overly high population).
The USA will be around for a while.
Europe will swap positions with Mexico and Brazil though, seeing as the EU is already beginning to crumble based on the situations in Greece, Spain, and Italy.
Russia will (and already is) crumble too due to their declining population (even though a declining population is a good thing on a global perspective, especially with the amount of land Russia has).Last edited by No Man; 29-06-2012 at 19:03. -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerI think we're about to enter a multipolar world. The EU (which will be bound together out of necessity, as all unions inexorably are sooner or later), USA, China, India, Japan, Brazil and Mexico will all be equally major players on the world stage.
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Re: The Next SuperpowerChina's has done a lot about demographics - the 1 child policy and a fact that there will be more old people than young means very little when you still have people under 40 in sizes akin to the population of the USA.
I think India would be best served by a one child policy. -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerI'm not so sure, the young people will be supporting a large base of elderly whilst this wouldn't be true in the USA. I would not be surprised therefore, if the future Chinese economy was centered mostly around consumption (it is currently 50% investments). In fact, the future of having to provide a large amount of consumer output is probably why they have such an absurd investment rate today.(Original post by Zenomorph)
China's has done a lot about demographics - the 1 child policy and a fact that there will be more old people than young means very little when you still have people under 40 in sizes akin to the population of the USA.
What a joke. Will you suggest that the USA will swap positions with Brazil? The EU has both a larger population and a larger economy then the USA, yet for some strange reason the EU will slip behind Brazil, which has less then 1/4th of EU population. That's right, you're saying 1 Brazilian will be worth the same as an Italian, Frenchman, German and Brit. Whatever it is you're smoking, I'd quite like some. You also have to bear in mind that the EU has very good growth prospects due to the potential development of eastern Europe and the Balkans.(Original post by No Man)
Not China because it is joined to the hip with the USA and because of it's unstable demographics and not India because it is far from being as widely developed as the Western world (due to their overly high population).
The USA will be around for a while.
Europe will swap positions with Mexico and Brazil though, seeing as the EU is already beginning to crumble based on the situations in Greece, Spain, and Italy.
Russia will (and already is) crumble too due to their declining population (even though a declining population is a good thing on a global perspective, especially with the amount of land Russia has).
Russia will remain at its current power level until there's a creditable counter to nuclear weapons. It doesn't matter if you have 500 million citizens or 5 billion if you're negotiating with a state that has the power to destroy the planet several times over. Also the global population resource demand is larger then the natural resource base at western consumption levels. Hence as development continues we will see a decline in the resource-value of labor and consequentially the enrichment of states like Russia when purchasing labor-output. Due to automation, we would expect the steepest decline to be at the lowest value part of the spectrum, this is also why I argue against India as a superpower.
It will become developed too late. By the time it develops, labor will of become obsolescent.Last edited by RyanT; 29-06-2012 at 20:08. -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerIn 20-40 years time the EU nations will be like Brazil is now compared to the other nations such as Brazil itself, the USA, etc if it continues to let nations such as Italy, Spain, and Greece bring it down.(Original post by RyanT)
I'm not so sure, the young people will be supporting a large base of elderly whilst this wouldn't be true in the USA. I would not be surprised therefore, if the future Chinese economy was centered mostly around consumption (it is currently 50% investments). In fact, the future of having to provide a large amount of consumer output is probably why they have such an absurd investment rate today.
What a joke. Will you suggest that the USA will swap positions with Brazil? The EU has both a larger population and a larger economy then the USA, yet for some strange reason the EU will slip behind Brazil, which has less then 1/4th of EU population. That's right, you're saying 1 Brazilian will be worth the same as an Italian, Frenchman, German and Brit. Whatever it is you're smoking, I'd quite like some. You also have to bear in mind that the EU has very good growth prospects due to the potential development of eastern Europe and the Balkans.
Russia will remain at its current power level until there's a creditable counter to nuclear weapons. It doesn't matter if you have 500 million citizens or 5 billion if you're negotiating with a state that has the power to destroy the planet several times over. Also the global population resource demand is larger then the natural resource base at western consumption levels. Hence as development continues we will see a decline in the resource-value of labor and consequentially the enrichment of states like Russia when purchasing labor-output. Due to automation, we would expect the steepest decline to be at the lowest value part of the spectrum, this is also why I argue against India as a superpower.
It will become developed too late. By the time it develops, labor will of become obsolescent.
A comparison between the EU and USA would only be valid if the EU became one country with a joint economy.
For example, states like Nevada are in just as bad situation as Greece in an economic perspective, but is there a big hoo ha about it like there is with Greece? No, because the big money makers like California and Texas have been keeping the USA up and running overall.
For the EU not to go down hill would be for the big money makers like Germany, France, Britain, etc not to be lending loads of money to countries like Greece and just like them be, like Nevada. or kick them out of the EU.Last edited by No Man; 29-06-2012 at 20:34. -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerChecking wikipedia, China has under half of the GDP of the US. You really predict >10% growth per year for 10 whole years over and above what the US achieves? Or a massive US collapse?(Original post by Stalin)
China is already a superpower in my opinion: its economy, although plagued with inefficiency, will become the world's largest before 2020;
By 2030 though, sure, China as the main superpower most likely. Although energy politics would be a bit ... heated ... by then, so who knows what will happen. -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerI think (and hope) the US will remain the biggest superpower through the next 50 years.
As China and India develop they will be faced with new economic and social problems. Economic because it's easy to grow when the country is drowned in ****. It's just about doing a half decent job in some key areas of the economy and you'll grow a lot. As you develop these growth rates will decrease substancially.
On the other hand as the country develops the people will demand better living conditions (higher wages, better healthcare, etc.) which will force these countries to make a difficult transition from "low wages and **** the people" to "what will we do now?"
Finally, when discussing this Superpower issue we have to look at alliances. While there may be an individual country that will eventually surpass the US, NATO will still ensure the West's political importance in the World. -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerYeah but we are assuming Western style health care for the old. Don't forget China is still a state directed society. It could simply direct that all old people are to looked after by communes thus freeing its young to keep working, the raw numbers are still extremely large .(Original post by RyanT)
I'm not so sure, the young people will be supporting a large base of elderly whilst this wouldn't be true in the USA. I would not be surprised therefore, if the future Chinese economy was centered mostly around consumption (it is currently 50% investments). In fact, the future of having to provide a large amount of consumer output is probably why they have such an absurd investment rate today.
What a joke. Will you suggest that the USA will swap positions with Brazil? The EU has both a larger population and a larger economy then the USA, yet for some strange reason the EU will slip behind Brazil, which has less then 1/4th of EU population. That's right, you're saying 1 Brazilian will be worth the same as an Italian, Frenchman, German and Brit. Whatever it is you're smoking, I'd quite like some. You also have to bear in mind that the EU has very good growth prospects due to the potential development of eastern Europe and the Balkans.
Russia will remain at its current power level until there's a creditable counter to nuclear weapons. It doesn't matter if you have 500 million citizens or 5 billion if you're negotiating with a state that has the power to destroy the planet several times over. Also the global population resource demand is larger then the natural resource base at western consumption levels. Hence as development continues we will see a decline in the resource-value of labor and consequentially the enrichment of states like Russia when purchasing labor-output. Due to automation, we would expect the steepest decline to be at the lowest value part of the spectrum, this is also why I argue against India as a superpower.
It will become developed too late. By the time it develops, labor will of become obsolescent. -
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Re: The Next SuperpowerBritain was a superpower before oil became the most important resource on the Earth, so why should there be no superpowers when it runs out?(Original post by jumpingjesusholycow)
When the oil runs out, there will be no super powers.
