How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?
Discuss issues related to the politics of the UK, such as the actions of any MP, any current or potential law, or any other factor affecting the British political system.
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?Until the election? Rather likely.
I don't see Commons voting for an early election, and David Cameron hasn't done anything particularly outrageous outside of his party's election manifesto or the coalition agreement.
At the next election? Unlikely. YouGov poll of 18-25s shows 71% support for Labour, 8 Conservative, 9 Lib Dem, 12% other.
Sun opinion polls stay mixed as ever, but do put Labour on 45%, a 14 point lead.Last edited by DarkWhite; 28-06-2012 at 01:19. -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?Almost 100% certainty. You see, its just not in the personal interests of either parties to split, espicially the Lib Dems who are still ****ed in terms of public opinion at the moment.
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If you are referring to the next election, let's just say that they probably haven't won any favours from the next generation of voters what with the increased tuition fees and the taking away of EMA and the other cuts they've done in other sectors. Basically, I reckon labour will be back in power. The lib dems have been a disappointment and well, the tories have been exactly how everyone expected them to be.
This was posted from The Student Room's iPhone/iPad App -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?Very likely.
Cameron should have called an election last Summer. He would have won a majority with the Lib Dems being wiped out and that imbecile Miliband in charge of the Labour party. -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?It will go on till 2015, both parties need each other at this moment in time and it is just of LDs giving in with regard to EU to the Conservatives while the Conservatives give in to the LDs on just about everything else.
Considering that the EU is currently UK's biggest boogeyman it is quite likely that the Conservatives can ride high on just the EU issue alone. -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?Likely, the only real possibility is the lib dems pulling out - but to what advantage? They're failing in opinion polls at the moment, they might as well enjoy it whilst they have it
In the current state I don't see commons voting for an election, they would have to do something really bad.
Swear he wouldn't be able to do that because of the fixed 5 year terms?(Original post by King Kebab)
Very likely.
Cameron should have called an election last Summer. He would have won a majority with the Lib Dems being wiped out and that imbecile Miliband in charge of the Labour party. -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?I don't think the 5 year fixed term parliament bill has went through yet. I might be mistaken though.(Original post by WilliamG)
Likely, the only real possibility is the lib dems pulling out - but to what advantage? They're failing in opinion polls at the moment, they might as well enjoy it whilst they have it
In the current state I don't see commons voting for an election, they would have to do something really bad.
Swear he wouldn't be able to do that because of the fixed 5 year terms? -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?Yes the Fixed Terms Parliament Bill is now Law.(Original post by King Kebab)
I don't think the 5 year fixed term parliament bill has went through yet. I might be mistaken though.
The Coalition will survive til 2015 -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?I'm pretty sure that this government is the first one to be affected by it and so the general election date is fixed for 2015(Original post by King Kebab)
I don't think the 5 year fixed term parliament bill has went through yet. I might be mistaken though.
edit: did a quick google http://services.parliament.uk/bills/...rliaments.html
Last edited by WilliamG; 28-06-2012 at 18:30. Reason: googled -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?Fair enough. There is no chance that the government will fall before 2015 then. A vote of no confidence would be very stupid for both parties.(Original post by WilliamG)
I'm pretty sure that this government is the first one to be affected by it and so the general election date is fixed for 2015
edit: did a quick google http://services.parliament.uk/bills/...rliaments.html
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?It's possible the Lib Dem's could break away, and we'd be stuck with a minority conservative government, though isn't it?(Original post by Morgsie)
Yes the Fixed Terms Parliament Bill is now Law.
The Coalition will survive til 2015
I have a feeling they won't last till the end of the year. Once the Olympics are over I can really see them falling to pieces; I get the impression they're putting on a brave face for the Jubilee and Olympics. -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?That Scenario is possible though the Leadership of the Lib Dem's want to stick it out for the full term. Everything depends on the economy.(Original post by Subology)
It's possible the Lib Dem's could break away, and we'd be stuck with a minority conservative government, though isn't it?
I have a feeling they won't last till the end of the year. Once the Olympics are over I can really see them falling to pieces; I get the impression they're putting on a brave face for the Jubilee and Olympics.
There have been tensions -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?These MP's are no different to bankers. They're only focused on personal gain! They are just going through the motions until the next general election without any 'real' plan on rectifying a declining UK economy. Once they leave office they'll end up in big investment banks like JP Morgan as economic advisers just like our dear friend Tony Blair earning 6-figures for his non-directorship & lobbying services.
Their way of restricting people going to university was to raise the tuition fees to £9,000 without even thinking about long-term impacts. E.g. Although graduates are finding it hard to find work, leaving school at 16 won't do you any good as employers still look for degree level candidates. So their way of somewhat deterring people from going to university will fail as employer demands start to increase.
2015 will mark the first batch of graduates under the new tariff. Don't hold your breath on finding a graduate level job though. It'll be a while.
In all honesty, since the financial crisis the general public have been struck a 'head-spinning' blow that has rendered many people into a state of desperation and need for direction by the government (which has not happened). This 'general election' cycle will not change anything. We just keep jumping from one party to another in the hopes that somehow the economy will be revitalized. It won't!
Once I receive my MBA i'll be pursing opportunities abroad for sure.Last edited by shane1989; 28-06-2012 at 19:45. -
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?With the amount of people who slate Labour, I don't believe that YouGov poll. It's not unreasonable for Labour to be in a lead, but not by that much.
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Re: How likely is the Coalition to survive until the next general election in 2015?Indeed. 45% is even greater than the 43.2% Blair landslide victory of 1997. I really hope these numbers are an anomaly.(Original post by Snagprophet)
With the amount of people who slate Labour, I don't believe that YouGov poll. It's not unreasonable for Labour to be in a lead, but not by that much.
Fortunately things tend to close in during the build up to the election, and there's still plenty of times for things to change.
