The current polls suggest a Democrat victory, however this depends on the economy not massively tanking, although on the contrary a significant economic recovery by November could give the Democrats a landslide.
Either way the Republicans are very fractured, and the Democrats, although as not strong as in 2008, are at least united.
I think Obama will win but I think it will be close. I think Romney's tax affairs will cost him the election. Why would hard-working family's vote for someone who takes the piss out of them by not paying tax.
If it was Obama/Palin vs Cain/Palin then Cain and Palin would win this time, me thinks. But Its not, its not a Hip Black guy that shoots hoops and that Woman Bill Clinton cheated on vs a war veteran and a soccer Mom, it is instead a Hip Black guy that shoots hopps and that woman bill Clinton cheated on vs a Big Business guy with a slick hair cut who looks like one of the bad guys from wall street and some republican senator who hates abortion, gays and mexicans.
I think Obama will win but it will be really close because I think turnout will not be as high due to a lot of Democrat supporters being disillusioned with Obama, and also because Romney is not that credible.
Nate Silver does the best election analysis bar none, he has pioneered a technique based not on opinion polls but on a huge regression analysis (I believe something like 10,000 variables) http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
He called the last election exactly right and he currently has Obama ahead by a comfortable margin. Barring an October surprise, Obama will win.
Obama will win, but not through the virtue of his own policies or track record, which is rather average at best IMHO. His victory will be assured through the lack of electability from the alternative republican candidate. Firstly, Romney doesn't particularly play the game of balancing himself between his parties far right base and more moderate counterparts very well, hence is infamy as the master of the flip-flop. He seems to have overlooked the fact that die hard republicans want Obama out no matter what. They despise him. So he doesn't need to particularly appeal to the hardcore sects of his party as ultimately, they'll vote for him regardless purely because he isn't Obama.
Secondly, as an individual, he doesn't have the same likeability, charisma or pazaz that Obama does which, whilst sounding trivial, can make a difference at the ballot box amongst fence sitting independents which ultimately are the groups which are going to win or lose him the election.
Finally, and most importantly, he's found wanting among crucial minority voters such as Latino's and African Americans. Unless he can rack up some points among those demographics, he hasn't got a hope of beating Obama. Obama's success last election was built primarily on these demographics and the huge majorities he held over their votes compared to the republicans. Romney has to make a dent in those majorities but unfortunately his reluctance to stray to far away form his hardcore GOP base is a massive roadblock.
Its interesting that Mitt Romney tried to be the Republican candidate in the previous presidential election. I think in hindsight, he's glad that he wasn't selected to run for president, because back then he would've been beaten anyway by the immensely popular candidate. Whereas right now, Obama is a much less formidable opponent to face with the economy tanking and the hype having gone away from 4 years ago.