[EonBlueApocalypse]

I hope so, the thought of a Mormon being the most powerful man in the world makes me shudder.

[JamalAhmed]

Lets hope he wins because the rest of the candidates are the complete definition of crazy.

[Made in the USA]

(Original post by Maddog Jones)
Obama will almost definitely win. His polling lead overall isn't huge, but its comfortable in swing states.

If you use the current state polling with electoral maps (CNN electoral college vote map is good) its clear Obama is going to win.

Are the polls you are looking at likely voters or registered voters? The gallop polls are completely idiotic because they are polls of registered voters and half those people won't turn out. I don't know any other poll other than Rasmussen that does likely voters but those polls paint a different picture where Romney is ahead or it's a statistical dead heat (within the margin of error)

Also the undecided vote always breaks for the challenger not the incumbent so I am pretty sure Obama will lose by a massive landslide

All the polls were wrong in Wisconsin and they were off by a whopping 7 points. I don't think this is even going to be close

[Made in the USA]

J

(Original post by EonBlueApocalypse)
I hope so, the thought of a Mormon being the most powerful man in the world makes me shudder.

But a Muslim in that position now is ok?

[doggyfizzel]

I think there is a pretty good chance he will. The polls would suggest he has a good chance. As for the economy, I don't think he has done that badly, but it would be awkward Romney to talk about the deficit when he knows they can swing round and point out the tax dodging and offshore accounts. That is a very personal character flaw they can take a jab at that won't ring well with struggling Americans. Many of them will support Obama due to things like bailing out the auto giants, his immigration stance, and medicare.

I think the Democrats will take key states like Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, possibly even North Carolina.

[Tyraell]

Obama is Muslim?

[heyhey922]

(Original post by doggyfizzel)
I think there is a pretty good chance he will. The polls would suggest he has a good chance. As for the economy, I don't think he has done that badly, but it would be awkward Romney to talk about the deficit when he knows they can swing round and point out the tax dodging and offshore accounts. That is a very personal character flaw they can take a jab at that won't ring well with struggling Americans. Many of them will support Obama due to things like bailing out the auto giants, his immigration stance, and medicare.

I think the Democrats will take key states like Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, possibly even North Carolina.

He's not gonna win NC and Florida is 50:50 , but yeh the rest are in his favour

[od_bo]

If Obama wins, we go to war with Iran.

If Romney wins, we go to war with Iran.

Does it really matter who wins?

[Alkain1607]

I would love Obama to win- he's doing a good job- just a pity that he lost control of the Representatives- so couldn't get through his stimulus packages. Let me put it this way: I would rather have Cameron to Romney, believe me- that's saying something.

[s.a.u]

It will be more a case of Romney losing

[NYU2012]

(Original post by Made in the USA)
J

But a Muslim in that position now is ok?

We can't tell you're a republican who's grasping at straws to try make a point?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_...iracy_theories

Not that I personally care what religion a person is, but you should actually research something before buying into conspiracy theories.

To the topic of the thread: For social progress, I hope he wins - I.e. his work in LGBTQ rights; etc.

A more worrying point to make would be that with a Republican president, we could potentially see a mo fervent return to the issue of women's reproductive rights, especially on abortion. Access to abortion is already heavily restricted, we don't need more restriction by the Republican party. I actually find it quite ironic that the Republican party is usually pro small government, but love controlling women's bodies and love huge military spending.

[EonBlueApocalypse]

(Original post by Made in the USA)
J

But a Muslim in that position now is ok?

Islam is less ridiculous than Mormonism so it would be preferable if I had to choose.

[doggyfizzel]

(Original post by od_bo)
If Obama wins, we go to war with Iran.

If Romney wins, we go to war with Iran.

Does it really matter who wins?

Are you talking from a UK point of view? I assume so as for a US citizen its slightly more complex than that.

If you are talking from a UK point of view, militarily I doubt we will be heavily involved with conventional forces. Perhaps some SAS, SBS, SFSG involvement but I doubt the US or Isreal is look at an occupation. If so the majority of the work will be done by the USAF and US Navy. We really have little to contribute in terms of air assets and we have no platform to launch them from. I doubt I involvement would be anything more than token, i.e. our destroyer helping with the security bubble on the fleet. That is assuming there is a war.

[sucess]

Obama will win because Romney will only get votes from the hardcore republicans

[Cheese_Monster]

If Romney wins then America will only sell to the world its image as a nation of religious buffoonery on the side of fundamentalism, Tea Parties and all the associated anti-abortion, anti-gay, (implicit anti-black), anti-immigrant fervour that is associated with the hardlined Republicans. Common sense against faith and bull****.

[Captain Crash]

(Original post by Made in the USA)
I meant post war presidents. It's never been done

Well that makes your original statement almost meaningless. You're correct in that a president has never been elected with unemployment this high because unemployment has never been this high or the economy tanked so much since the 30s.

[Captain Crash]

(Original post by Made in the USA)
Are the polls you are looking at likely voters or registered voters? The gallop polls are completely idiotic because they are polls of registered voters and half those people won't turn out. I don't know any other poll other than Rasmussen that does likely voters but those polls paint a different picture where Romney is ahead or it's a statistical dead heat (within the margin of error)

Gallup has traditionally been the most accurate mainstream pollster in presidential elections whilst Rasmussen has consistently been biased towards the republicans.

In any case, the straight Obama vs Romney polls are misleading - the polls that matter are those in the swing states, which Obama holds by a comfortable margin.

[Made in the USA]

(Original post by heyhey922)
He's not gonna win NC and Florida is 50:50 , but yeh the rest are in his favour

Romney is currently ahead in florida

[Good bloke]

(Original post by Made in the USA)
No president has ever been elected again with this level of unemployment.

Has any incumbent ever had to go head to head with a raving lunatic before?

[Made in the USA]

(Original post by Captain Crash)
Gallup has traditionally been the most accurate mainstream pollster in presidential elections whilst Rasmussen has consistently been biased towards the republicans.

In any case, the straight Obama vs Romney polls are misleading - the polls that matter are those in the swing states, which Obama holds by a comfortable margin.

Well if I have to choose between a meaningless poll of registered voters and a no-so-accurate poll of likely voters (you know, people who are actually going to vote) then I'll go with the poll of likely voters. Even taking poll bias into account, it's still better than polling people who don't plan on voting