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Military intervention vs. Iran.. justified?

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Original post by Summa Laude
Whilst there is plenty of proof that North Korea do possess nuclear weapons, they haven't been attacked. There was talk of a preemptive strike against North Korea, but to no avail. In the case of Iran, we don't even know for sure whether they're attempting to build nuclear weapons or not. The Obama administration don't even condone Iran enriching uranium. Any country that has a nuclear power programme must enrich uranium for it to generate nuclear power (forget thorium and fusion as they are still far from becoming viable) so how is it fair that Iran shouldn't be allowed to do so? If they do enrich uranium, it's still very difficult to create a nuclear weapon. Seems quite hypocritical of the US.

As others have already mentioned it seems that an ulterior motive is at play, be it maintaining a nuclear monopoly via Israel, securing oil or whatever.


I've explained to you why they haven't been attacked. The possible repercussions and the on-going two wars. Just because they haven't been attacked doesn't mean that Bush/Clinton didn't want to attack, they did. So you can't really use North Korea.

If Iran really want it's nuclear program for non-weaponization purposes then it should cooperate fully with the IAEA. The IAEA have hinted at many times within the last year of Iran's possible weaponization of it's nuclear.

Like you I am against nuclear proliferation, but we aren't dead certain that Iran want to build nuclear weapons. Indeed the US are very unlikely to attack Iran first, but they will unequivocally back Israel should the Israelis mount an attack. What I really disagree with is a preemptive strike without sufficient evidence that the opposition intends to use its nuclear weapons for malicious means. Firstly you need to have proof that the state has nuclear weapons in the first place. Next, how do you know said country will necessarily deploy its weapons? Why should one country have nuclear weapons but the other can't. I'm sure it's in the best interests of either country to not have to ever use its nuclear weapons.

Remember one of the supposed reasons of the Iraqi invasion was that Saddam Hussein was believed to possess nuclear weapons. Turns out he didn't have any. Now we have an Iran that is 'possibly' attempting to enrich uranium. This is made to sound like Iran is attempting to build an atomic weapon, when really the enrichment of Uranium is necessary to generate nuclear power.

I accept that enriched uranium is also needed to build a nuclear weapon seeing as weapons grade plutonium is a byproduct, but how do we know that this is the Iranian motive?


And that is what's happening, there's no evidence that the US are going to attack before the evidence is properly established. Also, the US aren't looking for proof that Iran has nuclear weapons, that's too late and wouldn't be able to do much to Iran if they did acquire nuclear weapons. They're looking for proof that Iran is planning on having nuclear weapons. The last NIE (intelligence community) in 2007 stated that Iran isn't planning on building nuclear weapons.

Because it's not in the interest to allow your enemy (i.e. Iran) nuclear weapons. From your perspective, it doesn't matter whether the US or Iran both have nuclear weapons, that's fine. But, from US's perspective it does and a nuclear Iran isn't something they want. As I said, they don't want any new nuclear countries.

We don't and know one is claiming to. The problem with you is you're far too hung up on politicians words. The possibility of a war benefits each leaders from Iran to Israel to U.S than an actual war. Forget them, they're far too rhetoric based. Think about statements of the more rational behind the scenes players like intelligence community, military generals and those who hold or have held high positions. There's no evidence to suggest that the US are going to attack Iran. That's just mostly media hype.

The US is a close ally to Israel. There's no telling how it would react to Israel bombing Iran. As far as I'm aware, Israel doesn't even have the military technology to bomb Iran's location whereas the US does. And the US won't just attack. The UK has made it clear that it won't back Israel if it bombs Iran. And Russia and China definitely won't. It would be a new situation for international relations and a possible turning point in Israel-United States alliance.

You don't have to attack to be seen as aggressive. I'm sure you would agree that the Soviet Union were aggressive when they never attacked the US during the cold war and vice versa. Surely Mitt Romney's endorsement of a preemptive Israeli attack against Iraq is aggressive?


But, what does Mitt Romney have to do with United States? He isn't even a part of it. He merely is trying to become a part of it. There's good reason to be skeptical of his claim considering he is a Republican and trying to appease Israel can get him far.
Reply 21
Original post by 4RealBlud




I doubt its better than Iran's, yet there are massive long-term talks about invading iran, but not Syria. I smell a fish


You were comparing Iraq and Syria, where does Iran come into that?

Even if you meant Iraq then it still has nothing to do with oil. Iraq showed how difficult an intervention is. Iraq cost trillions of dollars and is not something the west wants to repeat. The US is supporting the FSA so they are attempting to do something in Syria, just not expensively and directly. There is no pattern here. You just want to explain vastly complex events with one overly simplistic theory
(edited 11 years ago)
Original post by Summa Laude
Interesting theory. Do you have a source for this? It's certainly something I wouldn't rule out, seeing as Iran has one of the world's largest reserves of oil.
It's a crass cliche made by people who are either not intelligent enough or can't be arsed to properly analyse the issue.
Original post by Aj12
You were comparing Iraq and Syria, where does Iran come into that?

Even if you meant Iraq then it still has nothing to do with oil. Iraq showed how difficult an intervention is. Iraq cost trillions of dollars and is not something the west wants to repeat. The US is supporting the FSA so they are attempting to do something in Syria, just not expensively and directly. There is no pattern here. You just want to explain vastly complex events with one overly simplistic theory


My post was to point out that western intervention only occured or is debated when an oil rich country is involved. You implied that we didnt invade syria, because their military is too sophisticated but im pointing out that iran's military is probably much more sophisticated than Syria's, yet there have been regular talks about invading for some time and iran is very oil rich.

Its really not that vastly complex. Its really more simple than you think, wherever theres oil, theres the opportunity to make money. Thats why they invaded iraq. Thats why during the arab spring they invaded libya, but none of the other arab states that had mass demonstrations, thats why theres warmongering towards iran. You'd be naive to genuinely believe oil does not play a major part in this. Its such a key economical resource.
Reply 24
Original post by 4RealBlud
My post was to point out that western intervention only occured or is debated when an oil rich country is involved. You implied that we didnt invade syria, because their military is too sophisticated but im pointing out that iran's military is probably much more sophisticated than Syria's, yet there have been regular talks about invading for some time and iran is very oil rich.

Its really not that vastly complex. Its really more simple than you think, wherever theres oil, theres the opportunity to make money. Thats why they invaded iraq. Thats why during the arab spring they invaded libya, but none of the other arab states that had mass demonstrations, thats why theres warmongering towards iran. You'd be naive to genuinely believe oil does not play a major part in this. Its such a key economical resource.


There have been regular talks of invading North Korea and Syria under George Bush. Talk means nothing, countries talk about invading others all the time.

So why did the invasion of Iraq cost the Americans trillions of dollars and why did the US invade Afghanistan? Of course it plays a part. But to say its the key motivator of all Western foreign policy in the Middle East is overly simplistic. Syria is an ally of Iran a key ally of Russia, these factors explain why the West is interested in removing Assad, they are trying to bring about his removal just not by direct force. Yes direct intervention is not going on but plenty of behind the scenes stuff is going on.
(edited 11 years ago)
Didn't Iran make public threats of nuclear annihilation?

I don't think any religious or dictatorship state should have any nuclear weapons, including israel and north korea. You have to admit though, israel and north Korea are MUCH smarter than Iran in terms of their secretiveness. No one wanted israel to have nukes, and no one knows how many nukes Israel has or where.

I think bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, if they're found, would be completely justified. They're a dangerous state.
Reply 26
Shame, it's been such a peaceful happy 2012. Why can't we just have peace and love? Why can't Iran just ignore and forget about Israel? Why cant Israel take Iran's word for it that it wont do anything nefarious with the nuclear technology? and why can't north Korea stop being such ****ing weirdos?
Original post by Dragonfly07
Didn't Iran make public threats of nuclear annihilation?

I don't think any religious or dictatorship state should have any nuclear weapons, including israel and north korea. You have to admit though, israel and north Korea are MUCH smarter than Iran in terms of their secretiveness. No one wanted israel to have nukes, and no one knows how many nukes Israel has or where.

I think bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, if they're found, would be completely justified. They're a dangerous state.


Nope. Israel aren't smarter. Israel got help from Britain and France. The number of nuclear weapons can be reasonably estimated and after a while, it doesn't really matter how much they have. I'm pretty sure if the US really wanted to, it could find out where they are. North Korea are smart though and they played the US.

The only danger they really pose is to Israel's nuclear hegemony in the middle east. The prospects of nuclear proliferation in the middle east is very far-fetched. The only real argument against Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is because you're anti-nuclear weapons for all. Iran's nuclear facilities are already known. That's not what's important. What's important is what those facilities are being used for. Are you saying that you'd be for Israel bombing those facilities even though right now they could be used for peaceful measures? There are procedures to go through e.g. IAEA/ or UNSCOM style inspection.
Original post by 4RealBlud
Another point to make:

Libya holds 3% of the world's oil and Iraq much more - The west intervened
Syria has almost no oil - The west did not intervene

I can see a pattern here..


Afghanistan, no oil - we intervened. Bosnia, no oil - we intervened. Sierra Leone, no oil - we intervened. Venezuela, world's largest oil reserve and enemy of the United States - no prospect of intervention at all. I think I ruined your pattern.
Reply 29
Original post by Annoying-Mouse
The prospects of nuclear proliferation in the middle east is very far-fetched.


Saudi Arabia have already made serious noises about pursuing nuclear weapons if Iran go nuclear (indeed, there were reports last year that the US had agreed to supply the Saudis if Iran obtained nuclear weapons), as well as asking the US to go after Iran's nuclear programme. Jordan has also been making noises about a 'peaceful' nuclear programme for years now.

Given that these countries (most notably the Saudis) are implacably hostile towards Iran, the prospect of them standing idly by if Iran managed to go nuclear is very difficult to envisage. Under those circumstances nuclear proliferation in the middle east is not far-fetched at all.
Original post by Aj12
There have been regular talks of invading North Korea and Syria under George Bush. Talk means nothing, countries talk about invading others all the time.

So why did the invasion of Iraq cost the Americans trillions of dollars and why did the US invade Afghanistan? Of course it plays a part. But to say its the key motivator of all Western foreign policy in the Middle East is overly simplistic. Syria is an ally of Iran a key ally of Russia, these factors explain why the West is interested in removing Assad, they are trying to bring about his removal just not by direct force. Yes direct intervention is not going on but plenty of behind the scenes stuff is going on.


The talks about invading Syria were not regular lol. NKorea is different because they actually had a genuine reason to invade, whether its valid or not is another issue, but NKorea's threats towards SKorea and their anti-democratic, communist nature made them naturally unpopular within the American administration. Talks about afghanistan, iraq and iran were big and were regularly discussed and assessed. There werent that much talks over libya, we just stepped in. Afghanistan is completely out of context. They invaded because their regime committed the biggest act of terror probably in american history. But we were told Iraq had WMDs. There were none, yet thousands of gallons of oil is being pumped out of Iraq to west. We are being told iran is making a nuke, even though there is no evidence to suggest so. Even when we stepped into Libya we started pumping oil. You are right about syria's allegiance with russia, but then again iran is as close to russia as syria is, yet for the past 7 years there has been massive repeated talks about intervention. Ofc oil is not the only factor, but it certainly is major. We live in a world where there is the weak and the strong. The strong take what they can from the weak. We do not live in the Utopian society many people think we do. Oil is a major resource that almost everything runs on. Its expensive and getting more expensive all the time. It will soon deplete. It only makes sense that the strong take the most they can whilst its still there.



As i mentioned before, intervention with other countries made sense, because it made obvious sense why they intervened. But think about it, why did we invade Iraq? What did we get out of it? Why was getting rid saddam part of our interest? What did getting rid of that dictator do for us? Nothing, when you look at it from what we have been told, but when you realise how much oil is being pumped out of iraq, it becomes clear. Ofc there were other factors, but theres no denial that it was a major factor. The libya revolution was widely over-hyped and libyans themselves say so. It only gave them an excuse to step in. Now they pump oil from that civil war ridden land. Had there been no oil there im not sure we would have over-hyped it as much as we did and we certainly wouldnt have made an effort to invade. In fact we had cordial relations with gaddafi. As soon as they saw an opportunity to take the black gold, they took it. Crooked, subtle, imperialism right under our noses. Not that most of us care.

As for Venezuela, im sure theyll intervene once they find a good enough excuse. You dont need to worry about that.
Reply 31
Original post by Annoying-Mouse
Read this post by MxSK and you'll see why.


The US will ensure that the Saudis have a nuclear capability if Iran gets to that point. They won't get 'considerable' foreign help; they will the bomb itself.

It may not be a 'traditional' arms race per se, but it will almost certainly raise tensions between the two.

Then again, I'm (largely) a proponent of nuclear deterrence - for all that I understand Israel's concerns - and believe the dangers of a nuclear Iran for Israel and the region are far less than some others believe.
Reply 32
North Korea is still years behind anything sophisticated in terms of nuclear weaponery, attacking them would receive a huge international backlash and ruin Obama´s chance for 4 more years at the white house.

Iran have pissed off the west more and have greater enemies than north korea, plus they have Oil. Israel will attack them first then the US will go head first in, dragging us behind them. The US are training for Iran as well - I met some air force cadets yesterday in Paracas, a desert region of Peru, and I asked what they were doing. They replied that they were preparing and training for ´cooperative missions in the middle east´ and later after a few beers with one of them he let slip that it was Iran they are training for, so I´m more than convinced they´ll be attacked later this year in the winter when it´s cold enough or early next year.
Reply 33
Original post by Annoying-Mouse
You're saying that the US will invade Iran? That's not likely to happen. It's undesirable for them, the amount of oil they will get is nothing compared to the trillion dollar+ bill they will get. It's a completely different situation to Iraq. In Iraq, the US where looking for WMDs and wanted to topple Saadam and they had the backing of Iraqis because Saadam was one of the biggest human rights abusers. In Iran, the US are only concerned with the weaponization of it's nuclear program. If they suspect Iran is weaponzing it's program, all they need to do is bomb it. A regime change won't be possible because the majority of Iranians would not support US in it's decision and the US more than anyone know what can happen when a regime happens without the support of the people considering what happened the last time they tried a regime change in Iran.

Plus, it's doubtful we will follow suit considering Cameron has publicly stated he would not back a Israeli strike on Iran.


I think it is highly likely to happen, but not due to US choice; as I said, Israel will be, if any, the main perpetrator in starting the war since Netanyahu has for some reason made it his goal to piss off every one of his neighbours. If they do, and probably will, intiate a first strike then the US will be involved. The US wouldn´t risk a full invasion as Iran is a different terrain to Afghanistan, though similar. Hence the training in the desert of Peru. All they´d risk would be small ground attacks on shore, nothing like a full scale invasion. Israel could launch an invasion through Iraq but it would be resisted even with the remaining American troops in the region.

Israel would probably launch what nuclear weapons it has across to Tehran and strike with an airforce whilst the US could move its Nimitz class carriers into the Strait of Homuz and do likewise. But even bombings will receive huge backlash from the international community. If Romney wins then this will definitely go ahead, but if Obama does then it is much less likely though if Israel do go ahead then the US would probably involve itself.
Reply 34
Original post by 4RealBlud
The talks about invading Syria were not regular lol. NKorea is different because they actually had a genuine reason to invade, whether its valid or not is another issue, but NKorea's threats towards SKorea and their anti-democratic, communist nature made them naturally unpopular within the American administration. Talks about afghanistan, iraq and iran were big and were regularly discussed and assessed. There werent that much talks over libya, we just stepped in. Afghanistan is completely out of context. They invaded because their regime committed the biggest act of terror probably in american history. But we were told Iraq had WMDs. There were none, yet thousands of gallons of oil is being pumped out of Iraq to west. We are being told iran is making a nuke, even though there is no evidence to suggest so. Even when we stepped into Libya we started pumping oil. You are right about syria's allegiance with russia, but then again iran is as close to russia as syria is, yet for the past 7 years there has been massive repeated talks about intervention. Ofc oil is not the only factor, but it certainly is major. We live in a world where there is the weak and the strong. The strong take what they can from the weak. We do not live in the Utopian society many people think we do. Oil is a major resource that almost everything runs on. Its expensive and getting more expensive all the time. It will soon deplete. It only makes sense that the strong take the most they can whilst its still there.


Iraq and Libya we were taking oil from both before hand. With regards to Libya we would have done far better to support Gaddafi had it been about oil. He gave oil discounts to those that supported him and the rebels would not have been able to take power without our support, to say Libya was about oil is just silly, we would have gained far more had we not intervened. Especially since America got very little oil from Libya so had no real reason to intervene with regards to oil.

There is evidence to suggest Iran is enriching uranium to higher than needed levels and is doing research into nuclear triggers. Yes there is no evidence they are building a bomb right now. There is evidence to suggest they are looking into building one and are building up nuclear infrastructure to give them the ability to quickly build a bomb. Invading a nation for oil is just plain stupid. America has pissed away far more money into Iraq than they will ever get back. Yes the strong will take oil, however they will do it in an easy way which cost them the least. America will be self sufficient in terms of energy supplies in the next 20 years due to oil sands ect, They also buy far more oil from Mexico and Canada than they get from the Middle East. An invasion of Iran for oil would be economic suicide costing billions of dollars and thousands of lives for no gain. Trying to explain American policy to Iran with its for oil is wrong and illogical.
Reply 35
Yes; we have to protect Israel.
Reply 36
Original post by Dragonfly07
Didn't Iran make public threats of nuclear annihilation?

I don't think any religious or dictatorship state should have any nuclear weapons, including israel and north korea. You have to admit though, israel and north Korea are MUCH smarter than Iran in terms of their secretiveness. No one wanted israel to have nukes, and no one knows how many nukes Israel has or where.

I think bombing Iran's nuclear facilities, if they're found, would be completely justified. They're a dangerous state.


Israel is not governmentally religious, and it's not a dictatorship. It's a modern democracy, with a secular constitution. They only have nukes as a deterrent; it's obvious that Iran want them for offensive purposes.
Original post by tufc
Yes; we have to protect Israel.


Let Israel worry about Israel.
Original post by tufc
Israel is not governmentally religious, and it's not a dictatorship. It's a modern democracy, with a secular constitution. They only have nukes as a deterrent; it's obvious that Iran want them for offensive purposes.


Israel is indeed a secular democracy, but also rather belligerent. If Iran had nuclear weapons Israel would think much harder before attacking them, even with US support.

Nuclear deterrents work both ways.
Reply 39
Original post by internetguru
Let Israel worry about Israel.


They're our ally. Whilst I'm something of an isolationist, I will always support sticking up for our allies.

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