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Betting Discussion (Mark II)

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Seeing as I have claimed that I'm attempting to make a £million profit this season I thought I should give you an example of the type of bets I am doing.

A couple of these markets are currently suspended and I don't want to name the bookie anyway however.

CPalace / Leicester / Swansea hcp

Brighton hcp

Gillingham to be promoted

Oxford to be promoted

FGR to win the National Lge

Dunfermline to win SD1

Hibs to win Scot Championship wout Rangers

Frosinone to be rel Ser A

Dortmund to win Bundesliga wout Bayern

3 bets @ £100

That would net about £350,000 if it came in.

Now obviously I dont expect that bet to win ha.

Nor do I give a damn whether it's value or not .In fact it's very unlikely to be value.

But my reasons for placing it are nevertheless entirely logical

Cheers

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 5181

moggis

Um,it's just occurred to me that because I didn't give any prices in that bet some people might not realise that that would be a very recent bet IE placed in the last few days.

I emphasise that in case anyone thought I was blatantly aftertiming!

So for example the odds on Leicester / Palace / Swans in the handicap are 9/2 /5-1 / 11-2 and Brighton are 9/2

(It's only very recently that bookies ( a couple of them at least ) have offered handicap betting in running. They are by far the easiest markets to beat!
Why do you think that is?)

Edit : A couple of years ago I was astonished to find that Betvic were offering handicaps in running on every British league/ Division including the Conference.

After a very steep learning curve I was able to run rings around the odds compilers.
I was able to nearly always be a step ahead of them in these markets.
But unfortunately they noticed and so the account I was using - a friends -got banned sometime in November/ early December even though all the bets were long term accumulators .Or mug bets as 'gambling experts' call them.
Once again I realise that seems like I'm boasting but my point is that what I did anyone could do-
Once you figure out what it is about handicap markets that makes them easier than others to effectively 'trade' which in case you havnt realised yet is what I'm doing.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 5182

moggis

Actually I would also have done another bet with all the same selections but with Charlton in the handicap ( 8-1) instead of Brighton and £60 stakes.

These bets are not exactly the same as bets that I have done -but close enough- hence my use of the perfect conditional.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 5183

HucktheForde

why is unders in liverpool vs man utd so low at 1.7? this is a traditionally high scoring match up. past 5 h2h all over 3 goals

Reply 5184

moggis

Original post by moggis

Okie dokie,to continue....

The relatively simple thing that A can do in order to greatly enhance his chances of making a profit is to..........

Decrease his stakes!

Let us say that A only bets £6 on each accumulator so that he spends £6000 and as a result has £4000 left.

Now his position is so much stronger.

And the reason his position is so much stronger is because of a little - known ' property' of accumulators placed in relatively specific ways on long term markets!!!

What do you think that little- known 'property' is?

The little - known 'property' of ante post accumulators placed in a relatively specific way is that.......

A significant number of them will go very close to winning.I mean VERY close.

So when A does his 1000 accumulators many of them will come nowhere close to winning.
And yet more will do better but will also fall by the wayside.

But out of 1000 there will be something like 20 bets that go very very close to winning.

And the point is that A will be able to bet the remaining £4000 AGAINST these very strong positions in such a way that either 2 of the accumulaters win or he can turn his £4000 into more than £10,000 thus making a profit.Alternatively one of the accumulators wins as expected but he also makes a profit by using his £4,000

Moreover ,NONE of the bets need be value!!

That,very briefly,is what lies behind what I do.

The mathematics that I've been shown is simply irrelevant to this scenario.

It is very easy to set up very strong positions in ante post markets by the judicious use of accumulators against which you can bet the rest of your bank.

This is what I do for a living. Believe it or not I really am not proud of it.

But when I try to help people I get ridiculed.

So that's why I intend to carry on winning big.Because I want people to know that what you read currently on forums is written by people who understand NOTHING of this.In fact the level of understanding of how long term markets work that is to be found on the Internet really is appalling all round.

Now as I've said I'm not here to persuade anyone that I'm right but I will add just a bit of elaboration.

How do I know that someone doing 1000 accumulators sensibly will always have 20 or more that go so close that a profit is assured?

Well I've been doing this for over 15 years

That's quite a lot of data.

But I'm not really going by the data.

I have an understanding of why this works but what I don't have is the mathematical ability to show why it works.

These aren't ordinary accumulators of course.

They are accumulators on the best teams in their leagues. The best teams usually do really well.

But even if not, every bet is a hedge on every other bet.

A person would have to be incredibly inept to place 1000 ante post accumulators based on short prices which are mostly hedges against previous bets and placed throughout the season without finding themselves with a significant number of strong positions to hedge.

Indeed,so easy is it to come up with these strong positions that in fact the main skill involved in what I do is hedging those positions in the most efficient way I can.

In other words it's how A uses the £4000 that really matters. Any idiot could spend the £6000 reasonably well .The early selections are usually pretty damn obvious.

Cheers

Reply 5185

Forum User

Original post by moggis

Now that you've finally posted (vaguely) what it is you are doing I am even more sure that your strategy is not a winning one. As I've said several times, making a sequence of bets that isn't value can never 'add up' to a winning bet. That is true no matter the timing of those bets. It doesn't matter whether those bets are at long odds, short odds, are hedges against other bets, or are bets on totally independent events. The EV of a sequence of bets is always the EV of each individual bet added together.

I wish you luck but, mathematically, you are absolutely certain to lose in the long run with this 'strategy'. It's not really any different to the person who makes large accumulators and then cashes them out, or the person who backs a result on betfair (without knowing if the back price is value) and then cashes out if the price of that selection starts to shorten (again without knowing if the new lay price is value). All that achieves is compounding one earlier losing bet with another losing bet later. The strategy is a losing one even though a profit is guaranteed at the time of the 'close out' trade, because the profit is insufficient to make up for those times the trade cannot be closed out.

It doesn't matter that you are using more bets to close or hedge your position rather than the 'cash out' button or greening-up. You will not make enough profit from 'locking up' the strong accas to make up for the accas that sink hopelessly without trace. I am afraid that is a certainty in the long-run if the bets are not value. Further, you would lose less (but with more variance) if you just let the first accas run out to a win or loss.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 5186

urz13

Agree with the above. The ONLY real way to make a long term profit (besides luck) from sports betting is to find value. With a bit of knowledge or expertise on a certain area (not something like the PL, which is usually priced to perfection by the bookies), and some simple maths, it's not difficult to find value.

For example: my personal area of expertise is Spanish football, and I've been successful in making long term profit through this strategy. I now write betting advice for a site based on this concept, and I'm happy to share my tips for the weekend (if that's allowed?)
We use a points staking system which I'm sure has been discussed before.

This weekend I advise:
2.5pt stake on Celta Vigo +0.75 Asian Handicap
0.5pt stake in Celta Vigo Win & BTTS
2.5pt stake in Levante +3.0 Asian Handicap
If you're interested, my full write up and reasoning behind my selections can be read here: http://euroelite.co.uk/2015/09/la-liga-expert-betting-advice-value-to-be-found-in-vigo-2/

Reply 5187

moggis

Just a couple of brief things.edit turned out not so brief!

Firstly,I previously said that I believe I have a 10-30% of making £1 million from this season.

I now think I may well have a 25-35% chance.However this largely depends on not getting banned from one particular bookie.If they ban me it will be very hard to do the bets I'm doing in the amounts I'm doing them using friends without making it obvious.Mind you there's a chance they won't ban my friends but it's still far harder that way for one reason or another.

As regards the bet I gave it hasn't gone as well as most of my bets do in the short term.This was mainly due to FGR doing very badly.

I'd like to point out that normally I would bet on promotion rather than to win the league especially when as in this case there wasn't very much difference between the odds.However the bookie that had the handicap in the Prem and the Championship were only offering bets on to win the league in the National league.
Obviously I knew that FGR had yet to be tested- indeed it was a very very unusual situation all round in that league insofar as after 9 rounds there had been a dearth of meetings between the best teams.

FGR only needed to win just one of their next 5 games to justify their selection yet failed to do even that.According to the Racing Post Gateshead performed "a smash and grab" against them.

But no matter,despite this bet not going that well I'm still reasonably happy with it.Im slightly better off having 'placed' it than if I hadnt.

Of course as I said that's not an actual bet of mine but it's close enough and if I had actually placed it then over the last few weeks I'd have been betting against it.

Including Reading in the handicap.Reading I believe ,are more likely to win the handicap than Brighton although of course a third team could come out of nowhere towards the end especially.

Thirdly ,I gave AIK as a tip with Norkoping as a saver a few weeks ago.

This weekend is crucial.When I gave the tip I expected Djurgarden to take points off Goteborg this weekend but now I tend to believe Goteborg will snatch a win,an undeserved one.

Anyway I really hope Norkoping pulls it off as they have performed so consistently well whenever I've seen them ( not that I watch many games) and as far as I'm aware they have 'inferior' players so it will have been a solid team effort.

As I said at the start my chances of netting a million have I believe gone up.

One of the main reasons for this is the way the various top scorer markets are shaping up together with the fact that there are more of such markets available.

Top scorer markets are there to be traded. They can be trickier to trade than other markets- hell,only relegation markets are trickier- but the rewards can be big.

Just as long as you don't suffer the incredible bad luck with ill timed injuries I had last season.

Of course injuries are a key part of top scorer markets and you just need a bit of luck with the timing.

When I saw that Aguero was out for up to 8 weeks I cursed my luck but it has made little impact on the prices.

So this could be a bit of luck in my favour.

Because of course like countless others I have a position on Aguero and now I can lump on Sanchez et al ( not that there are many other runners!) in the full knowledge that as long as they themselves don't get injured I can't go wrong ( other than staking too much).

Anyway I do believe a brilliant Scotsman once wrote a 'cute' poem about mice and men that may end up having some bearing on all this........we shall see.......

Cheers

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 5188

moggis

A couple of bets * I've just placed in my quest to make a million......

Lewandowski top Champs Lge scorer,Sanchez top Prem scorer,Derby prom,Coventry prom,Plymouth to win Lge 2,Celta Vigo Top 4 ,Bologna rel. £80

As above except Vardy instead of Sanchez and Lyon top 3 instead of Celta Vigo £100

These bets would net over £600,000 each.

Unfortunately Ronaldos goals and Messis injury mean that unless Lewandowski can net a couple in the 2 Arsenal games I can't really trade this market as effectively as I usually do.

In the case of Plymouth they obviously have a very tough game and could well lose.
Thus this selection is a matter of understanding that should they beat Oxford they will be in a very good position.If they draw then the bet was still worth doing.And if they lose I will bet Oxford but only if Lewandowski has scored.Theres no need otherwise.Oxfords price would of course be lower but then I can bet them more confidently as beating Plymouth is a real coup.

As for Portsmouth,I bet the favourites early on in nearly all markets. They have two tricky home games and they aren't very convincing at home as yet.
Thus I'm happy to see how they do in these games and once again there'd be no need to bet them in this scenario if Lewandowski doesn't score.

* out of 1000s of bets I will be doing

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 5189

..DT..

Arsenal vs bayern in play offer on with Bet365 as usual tonight. Pre match bet matched by a risk free in play bet up to 50 quid. Stick 50 on robben FGS which will be refunded for a free shot with 50 in play. Good luck!

Reply 5190

HucktheForde

Original post by ..DT..

done on 4 accounts

lol

Reply 5191

..DT..

Original post by HucktheForde

done on 4 accounts

lol

What you hitting in play? I'm thinking about daring to dream on sanchez fgs

Reply 5192

HucktheForde

Original post by ..DT..

What you hitting in play? I'm thinking about daring to dream on sanchez fgs

Correct score

and will lay

Reply 5193

moggis

Norkoping play their last home game today v Halmstads.

I've just seen the odds for that game and I did a double take.

Unless Halmstads are missing some key players then the price on the draw and the price on the away are clear value.

At the very least if you bet on the draw at 7-1 ( or a bit more with some firms) you may be able to trade it should Norkoping not score for 60 minutes or more.

Bear in mind that AIK only beat Halmstads with a last gasp goal just recently albeit at their place.

I make the true price ( unless as I say there is something amiss) of Norkoping between 1-3 and 1-4 yet they are 1-8!

This can happen where a team needs to win and bookies expect people to bet on them but this seems a bit much.

Especially as they should be under a lot of pressure.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 5194

HucktheForde

Original post by moggis

what bookie do u use mate

Reply 5195

moggis

Original post by HucktheForde

what bookie do u use mate

Well I use all the bookies instead of the ones I previously stated I am banned from.

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 5196

phil38

If you wanna bet use this site https://betfect.com/ my mates and i use it as we can share and copy each others bets which is really useful , and you can copy top tipster bets at just a click of a button

Reply 5197

moggis

I'm very pleased with the way this season is going and I now believe that so long as I'm not banned my chances of making £1million are as high as 45%.

In two weeks Hull play Derby and it looks as if Hull would definitely be the team to be on should they win that one.Meanwhile Lge 2 looks increasingly like being between Plymouth and Oxford and several other markets are looking reasonably straightforward.

The only leagues I'm having some problems with are Lge 1 ,Serie A and Top 4 in La Liga * but those will sort themselves out eventually.

As for the bets I gave on here the first one is doing ok thanks to FGR beating Dover on Saturday and so I will probably give a bet built around Cheltenham who play FGR next or soon.

At the moment I have,

Leicester hcp,Brighton hcp,Gills prom,Oxford prom,FGR to win National Lge,Dunfermline,Dortmund wout Bayern,Hibs wout Rangers and Frosinone rel.

So that if FGR got a result at Cheltenham I'd be in a very decent position while only having laid out less than 1 % of my theoretical bank.

Congrats to Norkoping on winning the Swedish Premier League.It will be interesting to see the opening prices for next season and how they do bearing in mind I don't think they have many 'star' plays who might leave.....

* in case anyone was wondering why I'm even betting on leagues that I'm having problems with its because I need to in order to make £1 million due to the limits on easier leagues.

The major leagues have big limits with almost any bookie but some other leagues have limits as low as £50,000

(edited 8 years ago)

Reply 5198

phil38

Thought i would share this site ive been using for betting as its really good and know you guys will love it also https://betfect.com/

It basically allows you to copy and shares bets making it really easy to make good bets, quite a few good tipsters to copy from also