Business confidence highest since 2007 - Green shoots flowering?

CPI fell to 1.6%, the lowest since August 2009.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10612209

Unemployment fell by 77,000 to 6.9% and the claimant count fell by 30,400.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10604117

Q1 GDP grew by 0.8% (3.1% year on year - highest since Q1 2008).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27203433

Some interesting data within that..

Agriculture: -0.7%, 1.8% year on year
Production: 0.8%, 2.5% year on year
Manufacturing: 1.3%, 3.4% year on year
Construction: 0.3%, 5.1% year on year
Services: 0.9%, 3% year on year
Distribution, hotels & restaurants: 1.5%, 4.9% year on year
Transport, storage & communication: 1.1%, 1.4% year on year
Business services & finance: 0.9%, 3.6% year on year
Government & other services: 0.4%, 1.5% year on year

A strange fall in agriculture (perhaps related to the weather) but other than we see rather broad growth.

Manufacturing, construction, distribution, hotels and restaurants, business services, services as a whole and finance are all driving good growth in the economy. Agriculture, production as a whole, transport, storage and communication are all holding us back so one would hope that government assesses the reasons why and takes action.

Also, considering the "savage austerity" that some talk about it's highly amusing that government (the NHS most likely) has contributed.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q1-2014/stb-gdp-preliminary-estimate--q1-2014.html#tab-Growth-and-contributions-to-growth-–-output-components

The Pound is just shy of a 4 year high against the dollar at $1.68.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-29/pound-falls-from-near-4-year-high-as-u-k-gdp-misses-estimates.html

CPI fell to 1.6%, the lowest since August 2009.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10612209

Unemployment fell by 77,000 to 6.9% and the claimant count fell by 30,400.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10604117

Q1 GDP grew by 0.8% (3.1% year on year - highest since Q1 2008).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27203433

Some interesting data within that..

Agriculture: -0.7%, 1.8% year on year
Production: 0.8%, 2.5% year on year
Manufacturing: 1.3%, 3.4% year on year
Construction: 0.3%, 5.1% year on year
Services: 0.9%, 3% year on year
Distribution, hotels & restaurants: 1.5%, 4.9% year on year
Transport, storage & communication: 1.1%, 1.4% year on year
Business services & finance: 0.9%, 3.6% year on year
Government & other services: 0.4%, 1.5% year on year

A strange fall in agriculture (perhaps related to the weather) but other than we see rather broad growth.

Manufacturing, construction, distribution, hotels and restaurants, business services, services as a whole and finance are all driving good growth in the economy. Agriculture, production as a whole, transport, storage and communication are all holding us back so one would hope that government assesses the reasons why and takes action.

Also, considering the "savage austerity" that some talk about it's highly amusing that government (the NHS most likely) has contributed.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q1-2014/stb-gdp-preliminary-estimate--q1-2014.html#tab-Growth-and-contributions-to-growth-–-output-components

The Pound is just shy of a 4 year high against the dollar at $1.68.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-29/pound-falls-from-near-4-year-high-as-u-k-gdp-misses-estimates.html

Good news. Although people will still complain. The guardian comments page is still awash with triple dip recession comments.

I think we'll end up realising shortly that the 'austerity' wasn't as bad as it was made out to be.

What austerity?

Whatever happened to the triple dip recession?

UK unemployment fell by 121,000 to 2.12 million in the three months to May, official figures show.

The figure is the lowest level in nearly six years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The rate of unemployment also fell again, to 6.5% from 6.6% in the three months to April.

The number of people claiming jobseeker's allowance last month fell by 36,300 to 1.04 million, the ONS added.

The latest figures also show that more than 78% of men and 68% of women are in work, giving an employment rate of 73.1%.

Prime Minister David Cameron said this was now equal to the record rate of employment set in 2005.

Pessimists got beaten..

...........................................



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28325361

CPI rose to 1.9%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-28308837

....

Interestingly Morgan Stanley believes that if Scotland left in September there'd be a 10% decline in Pound Sterling. One assumes though given the hedging that a yes vote will see an appreciation albeit smaller.

Deficit is being very stubborn...

Missed this due to being busy.

With regards to the PMI figures, all 3 sectors of the economy were above the 50 mark in August and September. Composite PMI was 59.7 in August and 58.1 in September.

UK unemployment fell to 6.2% in September and 6% today. 1.3 million full time jobs have been created since 2010. Employment rate is now 73% (historic peak is 73.2%). Number of self employed is 279,000 higher than a year ago which smells dodgy but that's still not significant against the real employment gains noted above. Youth unemployment fell to 16% which sounds high but peaked at 22% in 2011 and only fell to around 12% during the previous business cycle.



Inflation has continued to fall as it has since 2011 and is now at 1.2% driven notably by falling food and oil prices (now down to ~$80 per barrel)..





Pound has fallen to $1.59, close to a 10% fall since July.

So generally quite good?

Yup. Pound decline may temper falling inflation though.

Hopefully. Compensated by falling oil prices thiugh

Yup, I'm just hoking the UK misses the fall out of Eurozone downturn and oil price fluctuation.

Eurozone inflation will have to go negative by the end of the year surely. Seems like real QE is still off the cards there.

Still petrol under £1.20/l will be welcome, I'm just hoping one day it'll feed into energy prices...

As ever Raskas, great thread

Good post Quady

And now for the nay sayers.

They've been pleasingly absent here.

Any thoughts on interest rates? Inflation suggests it shouldn't happen yet, but I kinda think the sooner we start raising the sooner we get back to reality levels, just start at say a 0.15% rise.

They've been pleasingly absent here.

Any thoughts on interest rates? Inflation suggests it shouldn't happen yet, but I kinda think the sooner we start raising the sooner we get back to reality levels, just start at say a 0.15% rise.